Maybe there will be some interest in the intermarket analysis between the Dollar and the DJIA.
Here is a weekly chart of the DJIA. We have already made numerous southbound trades in this channel over ther last 6 months.
And, we are looking for more southbound trades off of the upper red horizontal line at 12,720. Target is the lower red line at 11,000.
Timing for this southbound ride is between now and the end of the year as depicted by thedashed blue vertical time lines.
Price will try to hold for the election year, but I do not think price will hold. Into next year I expect the 11,000 mark to break and head southbound towards 10,000.
Price should be into the upper 11,000 range shortly on more bad banking news and more bad news in Iraq. Current price is 12,325
Any rebound towards 12,6xx is likely a reasonable place to short as I beleive a precipitious drop is imminent and 12,720 may not be reached again.
The fundamentals of it are simple. Four more airlines filed for bankruptcy last week. Those airlines that just got out of banckruptcy are losing lots of money even at 100% occupancy. Expect flights to be cut by 50%, ticket prices to double, and surviving airlines to merge and further reduce employment by yet another 40%. Banks and airlines are about the last two remaining industries in America and the companies in these American industries are losing $1 billion per quarter, each. Meanwhile, the US government is losing more than $1 billion per day in Iraq alone. With less than 45% of US high school students ever graduating from high school, these are very troubling times that will not be rectified easily nor overnite. The Kitchin Cycle says that there is trouble between 2002 and 2030 and this cycle has not failed yet.
A drop in the DJIA to 11,000 will not be the end of the fall. Look for a trip to 10,000 soon after the market is finished from being propped up for elections. The worst of it will likely start to appear within 6 months after the next president takes office.
A bleak picture indeed. Save the silly comments about a bird and the sky falling if you are so inclined to be a blissfully ignorant eternal hopefull. I am here to trade what I see.
I have my short entry zone at hand. Supposedly the market has risen these 200 points because Coca-Cola sold more pop overseas and JP Morgan's profits were down only 50% on just a $5 billion loan loss reserve.
There are tens of thousands of subscribers here and apparently no interest for trading the indexes that can tie nicely to the dollar. So, this will be my last chart and post on the topic. There is more interest in spammers selling shoes here on M'tec these days than there are people who try to trade.
yeah, apparently the wealthiest guys are selling shoes, bikes, MT4 indicators and ****% return strategies, and I feel Moneytec is becoming more of a china-town, really.
Im sorry for that offtopic post, but I also got fed up with stupidity of the 99% of the posts here, I will definately quit this once I setup my coll2 dot com account.
It has been a long time since I logged into this....er, site, some 10,500 posts ago, or so the counter tells me. We have moved from cell phones to shoe salesmen, lol.
Currencia, your trading talents and insights are wasted here. It is like casting pearls before swine.
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