EURUSD long term analysis

[Trader02]

Originally Posted by Trader02

Sire, you're making me dizzy with these reversals from bullish to bearish to bullish calls.

Anyway, 1.2915 was broken.

So are we going to dive or are we going to have one more rally on 1H and 4H?

The up move from Jan 12 is still lacking a wave c rally to complete the move.

Is this what might happen?

That is my call -- cautiously!!!

Phew!

Amen! Wave c underway. Both the 1H and 4H trendlines are taken out.

Trail stop. Could be a short wave c or whatever. Don't know. Dangerous as USDX wave 3 is right around the corner and will retrace this wave C in 2 seconds flat -- if my thoughting is right.

[sdotwewen]

Trader02, I think you would be more interested in short term analysis, we post short term analysis in these pages:
http://blog.forexcycle.com/
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f59/f...nalysis-19674/

[César]

sdotwewen i think trader02 is right!
I like to read your comments but a long term analysis is more on monthly or weekly basis! You are doing a short/medium analysis and keep it doing!
GT

[sdotwewen]

cesar, trader02, may be you are right.

[Trader02]

Originally Posted by sdotwewen

cesar, trader02, may be you are right.

sdotwewen, thank you for tolerating my brash methods. You're doing a fine job; keep it up. I like your style and read your thread when I can.

Just one analogy before I depart: Remember the movie, Force 10 from Navarone? .... it took ages for the bridge to explode after the explosives were meticulously placed.

First, a deep shattering sound from within the bowels of the bridge. Not a single guard knew what that was nor did anybody have an inkling of what was to come = a wide ranging down bar on 1H. The alert trader puts on his boots and waits for further confirmation. But the outside world is oblivious to what's yet to come.

Then internal cracks in the concrete start to show and water seepage causes consternation and puts internal, clueless technicians on scratch-my-head alert = 200-pd MA taken out on 1H.

and so on ....

it takes a heck of alot of this kind of stuff for the MONTHLY to even register something is amiss.

Regards

[sdotwewen]

Key resistance at 1.3042 is broken above, EURUSD may be in up trend, further rise towards 1.3364 previous high is possible in the next several days. Key support is at 1.2865, only break below this level will signal the resumption of the down trend. For long term analysis, the previous low support at 1.2865 is the most important level in our view. A break below this level indicates the long term bearish movement is underway and fall towards 1.2500 level to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart can be expected. On the other side, if 1.2865 support holds, EURUSD stays in up trend, rise above 1.3364 level to reach the next cycle top on weekly chart is still possible in the next several weeks, break and close above the falling price channel will confirm such case.

Trader02, thank you for your comment.

[sdotwewen]

EURUSD is in up trend, and further rise towards 1.3200 level can be expected in the next several days, a break above the key resistance at 1.3062 will confirm such case. Key support is at 1.2865, only break below this level may signal the resumption of the down trend. For long term analysis, the previous low support at 1.2865 is the most important level in our view. A break below this level indicates the long term bearish movement is underway and fall towards 1.2500 level to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart can be expected. On the other side, if 1.2865 support holds, the trend remains up, rise above 1.3364 level to reach the next cycle top on weekly chart is still possible in the next several weeks, break and close above the falling price channel will signal the resumption of the up trend.
http://www.forexcycle.com/eurusd.html

[sdotwewen]

EURUSD traded in a narrow range between 1.2865 and 1.3062 for 5 weeks. We are waiting for the break out of this region to identify the initial bias. Key resistance is at 1.3062, break above this level will signal the reversal to the down trend, and rise above 1.3364 (the day high of Dec 8, 2006) to reach the next cycle top on weekly chart can be seen. Key support is at 1.2865, break below this level will signal the resumption of the down trend, and further fall towards 1.2483 (the day low of Oct 13, 2006) to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart can be expected in the next several weeks.