MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trade Recommendations » Long Term Trade Recommendations

[popoola]

It seems that I covered on the loonie too soon. I got in on that trade using the Intraday system

Now the Long term system has signalled a sell So Im in again shirt @1.1242 stop @1.1342

I will not exit this trade till I am stopped out or the ICWR trading system shows a buy or I have a 200 pip profit

Chart below:

[popoola]

I have attached a chart of the EurGB Monthly

I have indicated the symmetrical triangle on the chart. However some one else can see a cup and handle formation as the symmetrical triangle

It is wise to go out into the monthly from time to time to see whats really going on. Also note that this trade will be excellent as a carry trade id it resolves to the downside

[gbega]

Popoola,

Great job so far man. I am familiar with this system and tested it (mainly backtested) for a while but never live. It appears to me that the system "excels" in trending markets and is quite poor in range "chopy" situations (i.e. last two weeks). What is your opinion in this? If so, have you got any ideas as to how to improve it? Should we actually only take signals in trending markets any avoid range trading? Should we add something else to the RSI reading....to be sure we are trading in the direction of the trend? Are we going to diminish its performance by changing (or "improving") the criteria? It is a very simple system.... but it appears to me it is really a good exit system but when it comes to the entry strategy it is rather non-selective..... and that is where I see most of the failures. Once you are in the trade..... and it does not go against you right away, it appears that you will be fine most of the time. Your opinion would be highly appreciated as you already have some experience with it.

[popoola]

Stopped out the Loonie short @1.1342 (-100pips)

[popoola]

Shotred the swissie @ 1.2250 stop @1.2300. This is not strictly according to the ICWR Long Term Strategy as that signalled a entry at 1.2280 or thereabouts. This is more like a breakout trade but I will manage it the ICWR way. Daily chart of the Swissie below:

[popoola]

Gbega

Thanks for your input about the system.

I typed up quite a lengthy response but lost all when I submitted the form. So I am trying to retype it.

I am currently testing the ICWR system with real money albeit small stakes
My aim is to double stakes after every 5 positive trades. I chose 5 because the system can be in trade for as much as 1 month at times as it is is trend following. I would like to see a time when I can trade 100 lots on one trade in the future.

About using another filter for RSI I would say dont. However I would say that do not enter the trade long if the rsi(14) daily is dropping from a high and also not to enter the trade if the daily RSI is already 70 or more.

Conversly dont take a short trade if the RSI has turned upwards and heading towards the midline. And also not to enter the short trade if the RSI is below 35. This is to avoid retracements of more than 100 pips that can stop you out prematurely.

My stop out of the Loonie was a surprice as the NFP was weak and all the currencies outperformed the dollar. The Loonie is really ranging and I would not trade the Loonie with the ICWR Long term strategy anymore. In fact I will try and keep to the majors. I will trade a maximum of two majors and one non-correlated cross at any one time.

Yes the Entry is non specific as we have a wide range to enter. That is why I would like to propose that the stop be increased from 100 to 100 + the width of the 75%-100 channel. More risk yes but if I had done that I would still be in the last 4 trades.

Finally I love the exit because it allows for the moving of the stops albeit slowly. Even though the strategy says not to move the stop it can be moved when a new higher wave is recognised to just below the 0% of the new active wave if long and just below the 100% of the new active wave. Yes there will be a lot on the table but that is the system

I for one will take profits if I have 200 pips on 100 lots would'nt you?

About reliability of the system. My very first trade on this system yeilded 210pips but sunce then I have been stopped out 4 out of 7 times at the max stops. Looking back there were thing I could have done in hindsight like staying in trades. For example the system put me in the pound @1.8350 but I exited with 100 pips out of the current 650 pips that has become available. That would have more than covered the all the losses on the system put together. The advise here is to stick with system

[popoola]

Forgot to add the following:

You cant trade the GBCHF and the GBYEN with the ICWR as it stands because the daily ranges of these currencies is more than 100 pips. So you will most likely be blown away on the same day you put on the trade for a loss. You will need to increase the stop to 300pips (too much for me!!!)

Stick with the majors or other less volatile crosses. Look for carry trades tat are trending in the right direction

[gbega]

Originally Posted by popoola

Gbega


I am currently testing the ICWR system with real money albeit small stakes
My aim is to double stakes after every 5 positive trades. I chose 5 because the system can be in trade for as much as 1 month at times as it is is trend following. I would like to see a time when I can trade 100 lots on one trade in the future.

Thanks for your lengthy reply. Is is indeed highly appreciated! It appears that your aim (double stakes after 5 + trades) is indeed quite aggressive.... and even the thought of it makes this method quite appealing and worth studying!

About using another filter for RSI I would say dont. However I would say that do not enter the trade long if the rsi(14) daily is dropping from a high and also not to enter the trade if the daily RSI is already 70 or more.

I too was hestitant to mess with it but wanted to see if I could avoid some of the failures.

Conversly dont take a short trade if the RSI has turned upwards and heading towards the midline. And also not to enter the short trade if the RSI is below 35. This is to avoid retracements of more than 100 pips that can stop you out prematurely.

This is an excellent point. I was also thinking in these terms too. You have effectively modified (improved??) the strategy as the initial criteria are much broader (just above the midline level....etc). And it makes sense too. From the description of the strategy the daily filter was aimed to keep you in the direction of the trend. But the algorithm could not "see" I guess weather the RSI (although north of the midline value-wise) is actually heading down or vice-versa!

My stop out of the Loonie was a surprice as the NFP was weak and all the currencies outperformed the dollar. The Loonie is really ranging and I would not trade the Loonie with the ICWR Long term strategy anymore. In fact I will try and keep to the majors. I will trade a maximum of two majors and one non-correlated cross at any one time.

So you do agree that ICWR is really not suitable for range trading and as such those scenarios should be filtered out! That was my observation too. Which also means, we would have far less entry opportunities as the currencies (as other markets too) are ranging most of the time.

Yes the Entry is non specific as we have a wide range to enter. That is why I would like to propose that the stop be increased from 100 to 100 + the width of the 75%-100 channel. More risk yes but if I had done that I would still be in the last 4 trades.

I am actually going back and forth on this one. Yes, it appears to be the solution to it. But, over 100 pips drawdowns means to me both psychologically and technically that the method is simply tooooooo non specific. Enduring these levels is quite difficult....especially with small capital.....where a bit chunk of your equity is taken out....and you still stay in the trade... Most importantly, it is not compatibel with the cardinal rule of cut the losses short.... In fact I could argue for the opposite: put the stops at 50 pips. In the long term strategy that is. See the chapter where different stop levels were studied and 50 pip ones were only slightly affecting the equity curve!!!!!

Finally I love the exit because it allows for the moving of the stops albeit slowly. Even though the strategy says not to move the stop it can be moved when a new higher wave is recognised to just below the 0% of the new active wave if long and just below the 100% of the new active wave. Yes there will be a lot on the table but that is the system

Yes, that is the strongest point of this method! Effectively, any time you have a new wave your old hard stop is out as your new stop becomes the one from the standard exit strategy. So you ARE locking in the profit no matter what.

I for one will take profits if I have 200 pips on 100 lots would'nt you? That's what we are all after!

About reliability of the system. My very first trade on this system yeilded 210pips but sunce then I have been stopped out 4 out of 7 times at the max stops. Looking back there were thing I could have done in hindsight like staying in trades. For example the system put me in the pound @1.8350 but I exited with 100 pips out of the current 650 pips that has become available. That would have more than covered the all the losses on the system put together. The advise here is to stick with system

True, stick with the system but.....my understading is that I should avoid range trading....and RSI>70 or <30 as well as the slope direction accordingly.
I am going to backtest different stop loss levels (both > and < than 100 pips and see what happens. Meantime, I will keep an eye on your thread as you go along.

This exchange with you has been most helpful. Best of luck to you!

[popoola]

Stop moved to 1.2280. Just a tick above the last pivot.

[popoola]

Stopped out @1.2280 (-30pips)

Now that the Fed decision is out of the way we can now look forward to some good trend in the majors. Tese trends would be suitable for the ICWR trading system

[popoola]

Went Long the EuroUSD @1.2869 stop @ 1.2789. I am avare that there is data coming out of the USA in three hours or so but the strategy says go long.

Charts below:

[popoola]

Find below a summary of the trades that have been made using the ICWR strategies. I have been trying to master this strategy as I needed a strategy that required little intervention. This meant that I needed a system that was trend following and one that worked off a longer timeframe.

The file uploaded will show 12 trades taken. The results as you will see are essentially breakeven. The fact that the trades last for a day or slightly more show that I am still getting to grips with the system. Generally the trades will last a lot longer. The examples given by the author of the system lasted 3 weeks! With massive profits

My other trading technique is pivot trading. Entering long above the pivot line looking to take profit at the next pivot level. This has been working fine for me and I may post results for that method on a new thread

On the whole the ICWR trading system is a credible trading system and I will continue to trade it ands get better at it. Once a pause in interest rates is confirmed we will get a trend that will last for a long long time. Trades of these king are very suitable for the ICWR system.

[bnotes]

Hey P,

Its good to see your results over the last few weeks or so. I agree that the more you are familiar with the system. It will be reflected through your results. I think tha some things like the s/l are really down to traders discretion. I culd be wrong. I guess that only time will tell. Stay focused and I 'm sure the more you seek to understand and get results from this system you will. The pivot thread you mentioned sound quite intresting also. I can't wait for that also. Stay full of hope. Its the food that keeps things manifesting.

Eze

[et_phonehome_2]

My long EURUSD position was closed by SL I had setted up. I did see the EURUSD started dropping but was unable to get at the desired entry point I had wanted, never got a trade in since it dropped too fast nor did it retrace to my desired entry point.

[popoola]

Stopped out @ 1.2789 for -80 pips. This negative trade has definitely tipped the profit balance of the system to the negative.

On the while the Euro is finding it difficult going above 1.2920. We are now seeing a double(triple?) top on the 4 hourly chart. Daily RSI is turning down and is currently at 53.

We might see weakness before we see a strong attack on the 1,2900level. Worse still we can continue to range which is not good for the ICWR System