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[magedology]

Hi popoola,
You have a nice and simple system there

[popoola]

pointtom and all who read this thread

I have just completed 2 traded contrary to the ICWR. Conditions are 4hourly chart, RSI(14) on the daily chart at 70 or more and the price showing a reversal pattern just before it enters into the buy zone for a short.

As you know the 4 hourly chart is quite longtermish in time and more often than not the rsi on the daily is in the 65% range bu the time a buy signal is given. I just thoiught instead of waiting to see whether we get into the buy zone why dont you sell any weakness ie a revsese ICWR signal. It works. You could get some serious pips especially in this market that doesnt know what it is doing.

Anybody else see this?

[popoola]

The Swissie is showing a buy signal according to the ICWR Long term trading rules. Market is in the required range. Daily RSI|(14) is over 50 but not awfully overbought. Market has backfilled the 31-61 or so Fib area so here goes

Long Swissie @1.2524 Stop @1.2424. temporary target @1.2624

Chart attached

[popoola]

"Accidentally" stopped out @1.2624 (+100pips)

I put the temporary stop in to get me out because of past experience. I was hoping to remove the stop before it got hit. I will be getting back in to continue the trade the ICWR way which is to stay in till a sell signal is given.

Glad though to have the 100 pips

This also speaks to all forcasters out there who were predicting a bloodbath against the US Dollar. As long as we have reports like this and fundamental traders it will take more that just one skill to profit from this market. The learning continues... Who knows whether the dollar is going to the moon. We have broken out of all immediate ranges in the dollar pairs

Have a nice weekend

[Jyde]

Hi Popoola, et al.

Considering the ICWR system myself, although for the short term, I am glad I came across this thread, well done! I particularly like that you report the system but does not keep it blinkered enough not to state other methods you are using. This, in my opinion, makes it more 'real', as that is what most of us are doing. So thanks!

I hope I do not intersperse too much in your thread, though I do have some observations about the strategy - it does have issues, some already remarked upon - that I cannot seem to root out, and would like your opinion on.

1. As you have said yourself, the wave selection seems very subjective. Reading the examples in the original, the waves are drawn in places that are 'contradicted' in other places, e.g. in some places the wave ignores fairly big correctional waves, where at other times, it breaks the waves up on yet smaller corrections. It all smacks a bit of 'after the fact'- examples, to be honest.
How do you actually solve this issue personally. Is it almost irrelevant in your opinion, or just down to gut feeling?

2. Comment on exit: Some has had doubt weather the RSI is pertinent to exit. My observation is that there are entry signals, and the exit signal are the exact opposite. The RSI, though, is not part of these signals, but is applied after as an entry filter only.

3. There is a serious flaw in the strategy! Much have been remarked on how the exit is more important than the entry, and this system strongly affirms this, though imagine the following situation, if you will: You are long and in profit, say 300 pips, and the market starts to drop. No bigger retracement/correction occurs, thus nothing is entering the 'retracement zone'. This would mean that you would simply sit there and see your profit ebb away. As this strategy emphasize it's own exist strategy over trailing, hard or any other exit method, I see this as a blatant omission in the strategy.
It might be that I have missed something, though I do not think so. You have already come to this conclusion yourself, using a form of trailing stops, though as we have seen, this has often stopped you out premature, leaving future profits out of the bottom line.
Any ideas as to how we can solve this conundrum in a more 'formal' manner?

4. Entry seems very lagging, as in the wave has already gotten underway when the entry signal is given. As all seems to agree - the above issues notwithstanding - that the exist strategy is the most helpful part, maybe we can afford the luxury of amending the entry, even considerable. Any suggestions?
(I see you are already considering direction and range on RSI and CCI, both most observant ideas!)


Oh dear, I am sorry about the lengthy post, and hope it does not interfere with your thread too much! I will keep it shorter in the future.

Once again, good thread!

All the best...
CJ

[popoola]

Hi Jyde

Thanks for contributing to the thread.

Thanks for your comments about my keeping the thread 'real'. From my handling of the thread an experienced trader will be able to judge me as a trader and possibly give constructive ideas. Any contributions from yoi in this area will be appreciated

As per subjective wave. I had that problem at first. I am much better now. What you can do is to open the last chart I put up on the swissie and see whether you would have picked the same trade. Incidentally that one worked out. In the long term ICWR version you are looking for a wave of 150 pips or more. What is perhaps more subjective is how to recalculate the waves once the market is going your way I think.


As per exit. The RSI is not required for exit. If it were then you might as well not enter the trade. It takes a loooooooooooooooog time and a good number of pips in the other direction to turn a daily RSI(14). The only requirement is for the price to be in the going the other way and enter the 0-23% area. Already you see that you are leaving on the table alll the movement of 100% -23% on the table in the quest for more pips. The only consolation is that as you get close to an exit the waves progressively get shorter. At the beginning the wave might be 300 pips but as you get to the end of the trade it usually gets smaller.

ICWR is a strategy for robots without emotions. If I have 300pips (~$2400) on the swissie on the table. I would take it or at least protect 250 of that.
Man was not made for the system but the system for man!

I must say that I havent held on to a trade for a 500pip profit before but you can bet your bottom dollar I will tighten the stop so tight that I will most likely be stopped out!

Oh undisciplined me. But 500pips is good money. In a market that trend only 20% of the time....

Thanks Jyde. Please continue to post your ICWR comments and possibly trades on this forum. The longer the better

Popoola

[popoola]

Went long on the usdYen @119.63 stop @118.63
Chart to follow. Looking for a breakout to new highs.

[popoola]

Went long the Pound @1.9046 stop @1.8946 according to the ICWR Long Term Trading rules

Not been posting for a while because I havent done any icwr trades but have been active with other methods

[popoola]

Just an update on the Pound trade. At one point I was up 70 pips but we retraced all the way to entry!!! Such is life with these longterm systems. As we speak we are going up again @1.8971

No stops to move yet...

[popoola]

Hard going on this trade as the BP churns its way between well established boundries. The monitoring continues...

[popoola]

Went short the swissie early this morning @1.2415 stop @1.2465 according to the ICWR Long term trading rules.
The pound trade is doing well too
Charts below:

[diamondi]

i found out a good stop loss for ICWR its works nice,

you need a 150 wave, so if you get a 250 wave like in gbpjpy, than always adjust your risk tolerance with the lots in forex so you will get a maximum of 2% risk,

then,
the rules say s/l = 100 for 150 wave, means 60-70% retrace from 150,
so if you get a 250 wave then s/l = 250 * 70%

lets say you have 2000 usd account and want to risk 2% = 0.2 lots for 100 sl, but your sl needs to be 200 then you can adjust lots for 0.1.

[popoola]

Thank you for your input diamondi. I have never used the icwr on the gpbjpy because the average daily true ranve of the currency is more than the 150 pips we use as a reference. the atr of gpbjpy is about 300. I will look into your suggestion. because if we are able to nail this pair it will lead to serious profits. in the last few days it has moved 900 pips!

We hsave to be careful though and choose our trades because in the gpbjpy the 23% entry zone will be large and you might find that the entry according to the system and the stop will still be in the same zone leading to very high risk.

thanks again for your contribution. even though it has been a while since I posted here i still trade the system and it is still responsible for my best profit trade to date

popoola

[ScottDO]

Hi all. I wanted to thank you for such a great thread. I have read every page of it. I am new to ICWR and am very impressed with what I have seen thus far. I am hoping there are others still around - would love to resurrect this thread.

Happy trading...

-Scott