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[Batcheler]

Originally Posted by bigcat

Hi Jerry,
Hope you have a nice weekend too!
When we look at these charts, and there is a green or red triangle, is it correct to say that our entry/exit price would be the close of the bar at which the triangle appears? In which case, if there were a trade on right now, we would be short EUR from about 1.2920?
It looks like back in December, eNNya didn't call the end of the short until the price had gone about 50 pips further in the long direction than it has in the current situation. If so, this might mean that if the EUR stays between 1.29 and 1.31, eNNya might stay with her current signal for a long time ... ?
Bigcat

correct bigcat about bein in Short trade.

correct, solid arrows are trades, open ones are closes.

such scenarios wouldn't be dependent on anything to do with price range, just strictly price randomity, shows up in performance report as "directional accuracy", or "% wins". Usually eNNya-II w/ EURUSD has been in 90% to 98%, believe it or not, one major reason to had put brakes on eNNya-I show, things excellent w/ "II".

[Batcheler]

Wow! Further gain on USDJPY by 5pmEST, today no doubt! Seems might be in a trend here! Here is same url posted 4/20 just to show its been in a short around time of that hump:

http://www.freeviralvisitors.com/TD_...32305_JPEG.jpg

EURUSD stalling-out & leveling, so when we get after-opening-data Sun 5pmEST we'll see what it means to eNNya then.

See you Sunday!

[Batcheler]

chart of USDJPY: see tiny downturn of blue-line? means eNNya still for what has been happening for USDJPY, a down-turn.

trying-out the chart upload on moneytec instead of upload to my site. If it worked, see attachment. I could only have some of the trades window show, otherwise it would cover chart and blue-line+Sigs. Just a few trades that are so-so showing just before this pip gathering downtrend, but even before this down-slope, not to worry, in this walk-forward since 1/02/05 it has gathered 860 pips thus far, not countinmg what short we're in! Not too shabby considering how noisier USDJPY seems.

[Batcheler]

new snipit url for your convenience!

gets you fast to last post here so you are fast getting to see 5:15pmEST Sigs in last post, ok?:

http://snipurl.com/jbsneuralnetlastpost

Advancements one step at a time gang!

sidebar: wow, up to 7700 views on moneytec for this thread, beat Ernest's 5 majors little while back! oh well, we're not in this for popularity contest, we're in it TO MAKE IT HAPPEN! lol

[bigcat]

Jerry,

IF a stop was placed from the entry in each trade, and not changed after that point regardless ... (it almost has to be this way doesn't it? Because if you adjusted the stop each new day according to the previous day's close, and the trade was moving against us, then the trade could progressively walk us into a virtually unlimited loss).

And considering the idea of using a 160 pip stop ...

Looking at the last EUR chart, I can see why one might consider "stopless" trading. It looks like there were 4 times a stop of 160 would've been hit: 3rd, 4th, and last SHORTS (although the 4th is very close), and the second to last LONG. If all 4 of these were stopped the result would be -640 pips. However, if no stop were used (or a much larger one, say 250 pips for purely disaster protection), then it looks like for the first two SHORTS losses would've been approx. 80 pips each, and for the LONG about 125 pips. The final SHORT has yet to conclude because there is no next signal to close it.

So, for the 3 trades that have concluded where a 160 pip stop would've been hit, had no stop been used or a much larger one, the result would've been BETTER by 195 pips!

Do you think using a 250 pip stop might produce better overall results than using 160?

Bigcat

[Batcheler]

sorry I don't see that bigcat.

TD has given me some bad TAs, AutoTrend chart TAs that weren't real time TAs, thus have yielded those charts and eNNya-II results too good to be true. had me sink in me boots this afternoon, a big downer for which I just HAD to recover pronto (a suspicious feeling for awhile finally got to me about it being too good, so I tracked it down, took some doing!), so spent the afternoon to eve hours combing things I knew worked to recover, so guess we'll still call her "eNNya-II" as it uses the forecast line still just to the next day's bar that arrives, and has the other multiple moving averages in the TA hopper still, and TD folks did at least gave us this new auto-threshold search function, so think we're good to go.

depending on how blue-line and strategy run shows us, I'll decide then whether we forego this day by day waiting and possibly have us just go ahead and enter it somewhere.

Thx for your understanding.

[bigcat]

Jerry,

I didn't think to compare your chart to other data to see if it was accurate. So I did -- looked at a 1-day chart over the same period from one of my current brokers. And you are right, there are discrepancies. They do not seem to be huge, however. So I hope you find that eNNya-II is still going to be pretty darn good.

Also, I hope you do not feel the need to rush into a trade until we get a new signal -- I am sure it will come soon enough, on the EUR at least.

Given the differences I saw in the 1-day chart you were using and the one I have -- it still looks as if a 250-stop would've worked out better than using a 160, by about the same amount on my chart, IF eNNya had called the same trades on the same days.

Keep the faith!

Bigcat

[Batcheler]

hi good folks,

I am fairly devastated by this one tiny little THING, auto-trends, not being real-time type TA and why wouldn't TD see to it we don't pick such into a modeling hopper. So, have to tell you folks I'm feeling pretty broken down from that high and torn between whether to continue going w/ EUR on eNNya (could see JPY was not too good) or w/ this new blue-line strategy run into next bar for a Sig. When I made my benchmark discoveries over two months alone testing what won was NN-TA type mode, so here I am on public forum with pants down seeing if something will work that didn't before eNNya-I was born! So I'm pretty torn and thinking to take down thread, go back to research at my own pace w/o public scrutiny, and as promised, return help ($) some of you forked over.

just want to share the tears a bit. Bummed-out by that deception.

THink I need to do some reflection and do the Sigs on my own for 2-4 weeks, etc. Should I leave this thread here or start it anew later?

Sorry folks.

[forex777]

Just leave the thread up and come back to it later. don't worry about it.

Everybody makes mistakes.

Nothing's easy, Jerry. You will succeed if you keep trying.

Don't be bummed out. Atleast now you know how NOT succeed at what you were trying to accomplish which means you are one big stop closer to the goal.

Cut yourself a break and give yourself some slack

I say, leave the thread up and come back to it later....

[bigcat]

JERRY !

I do not understand. The only reason you might want real-time is if you are planning on day-trading. You are not doing that!

Applying the signals generated on the EUR chart you posted (from eNNya-II ?) to actual data shows that this system was SUCCESSFUL.

I looked at the Tradecision material and it downloads historical data for you to run analyses on. So again, I do not understand why you are showing any concern here.

the eNNya-II results are not "too good to be true", they are true -- for historical data. Check her predictions against any data source you like.

Whatever produced that EUR chart seems to be working just fine! If you do not think so, could you please explain?

My encouragement is to continue just as you have been planning! KEEP THE THREAD

[positive pips]

Hi Jerry, Your system works, just apply a simple trend line on a 60 min. chart for entry. The charts show after the direction is established after the signal then it is safe for entry in that direction. We may miss a few pips on entry but be safe on the entry. Thanks, Positive Pips

[sanpedro]

Hi Jerry
I am not quite clear why you are concerned. Lets keep going. No one is going to trade live with this for a while so lets just try it out.
Peter

[Batcheler]

Originally Posted by bigcat

JERRY !

I do not understand. The only reason you might want real-time is if you are planning on day-trading. You are not doing that!

Applying the signals generated on the EUR chart you posted (from eNNya-II ?) to actual data shows that this system was SUCCESSFUL.

I looked at the Tradecision material and it downloads historical data for you to run analyses on. So again, I do not understand why you are showing any concern here.

the eNNya-II results are not "too good to be true", they are true -- for historical data. Check her predictions against any data source you like.

Whatever produced that EUR chart seems to be working just fine! If you do not think so, could you please explain?

My encouragement is to continue just as you have been planning! KEEP THE THREAD

sorry for confusion bigcat. "too good to be true" because an auto-trend is made on the chart FIRST, not in real time (proverbially called "time series" function"), THUS eNNya is aided too well and gets unreal SUPER sigs. That's why, suspiciously, we were seeing a divergence at the tail-end of chart, because we're waiting for something to happen with an auto-trend THAT WON'T generate 'til.......I don't know how much later, depends on their auto-trend functions. I've screamed via email to Amit at Tradecision to help us! In first place, I says, such SHOULDN'T be allowed TO ENTER the TA-hopper of a model !!! LOL Second place, I've asked for a time series version.

I re-gained some hopes of recovering the cause of eNNya-II with midnite-oil thoughts. Its possible to just use it as she is with autoInter (Intermediate Auto Trend) and low count of trades setting in auto-threshold search by just taking a small licking of a delay in the Sig ( I just looked at it now on chart and it likes nice & possible)....i.e., instead of those Sig-arrows looking so ideal atop or bottom curves it be a little ways after. But until we go thru number of days or weeks we won't know how well or bad these delays will be (real life day-by-day then becomes the "walk-forward", a grueling way to test-out stuff......was way I found eNNya-I, but it takes coulple of months, if not weeks at first to see if getting somewhere, AND THAT is one major delight for wanting to go to eNNya-II is this fantastic right-now walk-forwards after trainings!)

I'm now playing with SMAs & EMAs in this "Intermediate" period range to see what I can put in hopper in lieu of AutoTrend by TD. But since I'm not a TA pro, very amateurish in this sector, sorry, and since many of you here are probably better than me in this department owing to your interests here on moneytec, and in lite of fact we have a founder's free & voluntary help or donations membership GROUP going here (i.e., it no longer is just me, obviously), why, any help of our members on this issue is appreciated: i.e., H-E-L-P ! LOL Joking, but seriously, if any of you are into TA stuff better than "MOA" (french accent for me)............(reason I bought and play with TD is laziness for any further TA study, LOL, truth be told), why, CHIME IN with whatever you can! (i.e., formulas) Like something SIMILAR to this AUTO-TREND in REAL TIME would be "SIMPLY IRRESISTABLE" (as the tune goes! LOL) (looks like I'm recovering as my humor is returning) LOL


So we're holding off on signals 'til this all gets resolved, ok folks? Apologies, hopefully eNNya-II to take off soon as possible. I will be entering bars as days go by, probably not at 5pmEST, but entering them and watching the blue-line vs. trade decision and price curve (I showed Dee and you all on thread some charts where you see these divergent curves and I explained it looks coincidentally weird at the very end.......well, this I tracked down is what this problem is, their not-time-series "auto-trends", bummer!)

So hopefully we get somewhere soon. Thanks for being patient and being in this game/search with me gang!

Hope this fully explains now where we're at?

[bigcat]

Hi Jerry,

Now I think I see, thank you for your last explanation. Those SUPER signals were uncannily accurate ... and now I see we would've waited and waited and not seen one in real time.

Your idea in the 2nd paragraph sounds pretty good! When the market is choppy, it doesn't seem like much would be lost entering a day or two later. When the market is trending, it is true we would likely have a worse entry, BUT on the other end sometimes we will get a better exit (see the second to last buy signal on the EUR chart -- had it been delayed, the SHORT we were in would've run further).

I hope you will keep us updated on the current status!

Thanks,
Bigcat

[stevespray]

There's a saying.."If something looks too good to be true then it more than likely is too good to be true".

Sorry folk have come back down to Earth with a bump. I to have been following the thread. If I'm honest I had reservations about the signals a while back. I've actually traded 'the markets' for many years and frequently write trading systems of sorts. The results posted seemed just too good to be true.

Generally in trading, not matter which markets you look in, you will never find an edge as big as the edge which people desire. This is just the nature of the markets.

In the long term, no matter what you want to trade, you will need to identify your own edge, an edge which works for you. You need to work out how it sets up and then you'll need to work out how to actually trade the darn thing. After that you'll need to work out the money management and stops. When all that is done you'll be ready to go. Even with all that in place your mathematical edge will only be a few percentage points in your favour. Bad practice and not following your own rules will become 'the devil' which potentially derails you. Capital Preservation is the key here if you want to be in for the long haul.

Good luck,
Steve.