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[Batcheler]

Hi, thought I'd share picture of chart of what I'm doing, checking train-then-walk-forward for certain eNNya proposed trades out of the past. Here is one url of a chart view FYI, I think its my 3rd or 4th walk-forward after training, date starting here is 4/18/04. It's a suffixed .bmp (bitmap) url of 2MB size, so once you click-on it give it time to download depending on your type isp.

http://www.freeviralvisitors.com/TD_...from_41804.bmp

the blue line is the eNNya predict line. The important points is the arrows for trade signals. Empty ones are closes.

I loaded it on my temp site because seems the php script at moneytec didn't want 2MB. With your XP you should see an expand icon to click-on to see more clearly the chart. We'll be taking first trade after training as seen by first up arrow followed by next down arrow. Note how that first pair on this chart has a kind of trail_stop characteristic to it. The others happen to still be good except last one which poops-out, usually because of the general direction of the price curve it starts to tilt out of correct zero-normalization -- see last one and its apparent going out of range predict-wise, so curve goes beyond where arrow says it should stay. Later trades don't matter anyway as after each new trade signal, just as I'm simulating procedure of late, will be re-training.

[Batcheler]

Hi folks,

RE: readying for Sun 5pmEST

I fixed a strategy overlay for these incredible new models which can run in walk-forward manner each day's new bar. Instead of half hour search each trade day the data entry plus fiddling around and few minutes running strategy ("look ma, no stops!" type strategy overlay) should be total of 10 minutes or less.

It gave a slight variation in the last trade of a short though, which is strange, so I hear in addition oil + stocks fallin' badly, good idea to have another reason to go ahead and cut-out and take that +125 on EURUSD now!

OK? See you around 5:15pmEST for EURUSD and ~5:30pmEST for USDJPY. Remember that some days there will be no trades in these new models.

[oscar81]

A Stopless Joint! Sounds like the FX-traders utopia. Wouldn't we all love to never realize a loss? But its been proven that in this market its not possible and any one who doesn;t use stoplosses has a death wish (fx account death wish), but hey lets not be sceptic just yet, Good luck to you Batcheler we are watching if you need any help just give out a holler. As that what this trading community is all about, helping each other out. Kudos moneytec.com this site is awesome, I made so many good friends here not to mention learnt alot about fx-trading too.

[Batcheler]

Originally Posted by oscar81

A Stopless Joint! Sounds like the FX-traders utopia. Wouldn't we all love to never realize a loss? But its been proven that in this market its not possible and any one who doesn;t use stoplosses has a death wish (fx account death wish), but hey lets not be sceptic just yet, Good luck to you Batcheler we are watching if you need any help just give out a holler. As that what this trading community is all about, helping each other out. Kudos moneytec.com this site is awesome, I made so many good friends here not to mention learnt alot about fx-trading too.

Oscar! you are a-b-s-o-l-u-t-e-l-y right amigo! Thx for helping to bring my feet back to earth. "hello jerry in space, come-in jerry, we know your out there, but you got to get back down here to eat & survive! CQ CQ CQ jerry!" LOL If a studied nerd were selling a "friend" on a "safe free fall down Grand Canyon sheer cliff by simply jumping from here at 7:30am, only $100!" and this thick-glaassed nerd had his computer there and he said "yea, I have it all figured out, its only couple thousand feet down and the wind at 7:30am is just right and heavy-duty to give you soft landing, and the computer analysis is fool-prrof, and you got nothing to worry about". That nerd MAY be very right, but if your "friend" went for it and actually survived and said "yea, there, you see!?" You might then be inclined to stare at him and go "Tuh!" and walk away forever from said friend!
Soooo, they'll be two kinds of stops really, one for me, 250 pips. Its for worst case disaster with forex or ones eBroker. Of course, by then, maybe per all the disclaimers we sign-our-lives-away-with it probably won't by honored if it got that bad! LOL The other can be say 160 pips, just outside what rare loss range can occur right after a trade entry ---- 15-150 pips from eNNya changing her mind and switching direction and giving those 15-150 size one-time losses (as seen in performance report). These are for the general fx crowd who'd prefer to forgo (sp) a trade if its going to act risky up front. You folks decide which way you want to go, buuuuut, since you all ARE new to this NN stuff, guess that would all of you! LOL I D-O admit that if I were new and unpracticed and JUST SHOWN, just as you are now, that you COULD walk up to edge of the cliff w/o harm, "look, see me do it", why, both unpracticed and psychologically, that's stupid to play such game! 5 inches from edge with no wind to peer down the canyon........THAT would be ok! (unless you're freaked of heights) I'll be the one who first and often puts my stops out at 250 (walking on edge of canyon cliff), ONLY because I see and feel the performance of how eNNya is doing on UN-trained neural-nets responding on walk-forward around different points, thuis more than anyone I see & feel what she can do. I'll be willing to "eat-crow" if my demo or my cash gets a beating, don't need to be right and save-face, it would then simply be new chaos that eNNya must take-in and learn about. Thing is, way chart responds to this model, even if I did take a 250 beating, next two or three trades I'm back in shape! So you can slowly or more rapidly have that type confidence too, its all probably moot one or the other TOO, important point is what Oscar said is TRUE, NO stops is an fx death wish! THx Oscar for the tug back to earth. You're right, nice decent helping community here. Hey, can you blame a half-nerdish bespectacled guy for floating-off when things never looked so good!? LOL THx for your forgiving me on that and let's walk the good trails to many great vista pinacles.



See you at ~5:15pmEST!

[garyh]

Batcheler, I really like the confidence you have in your system, but I wouldn't recommend trading without stops on your system. Since it is a set and forget for a whole day, a lot can happen in 24 hours that can make your predictions irrelevant. The by word should be "Expect the Unexpected", cause you never know when something will happen in this world that throw the market into a tizzy. I myself usually trade without hard stops (set on the order), but I do have experts runninng on the charts (metatrader charts) that stop and reverse when conditions go bad. You have to have a net (or some really deep pockets) somehow to keep you alive.

Gary

[Batcheler]

Trades, Sun (4/17),

EURUSD, I previously closed last long per earlier thread over weekend, good idea you do same as although eNNya has no new Sig, an earlier one couple weeks back on a peak in the currently trained chart has a Short, so we're waiting to go back in on a Long someday soon.

USDJPY, No new trade here too, we cut-out of this trade Friday per earlier thread for a ~ -55 loss.

All these cut-outs are now the end of eNNya-I, we're now awaiting for any Sig from either pair for eNNya-II

[bigcat]

Jerry,

Here's another vote to keep up the good work! When someone has a passion for something, it usually seems to be good not only for them, but also for others.

By the way, I have been trading the signals with real money, but microscopic amounts -- it's just more fun that way than watching a demo account.

Bigcat

[Batcheler]

Originally Posted by bigcat

Jerry,

Here's another vote to keep up the good work! When someone has a passion for something, it usually seems to be good not only for them, but also for others.

By the way, I have been trading the signals with real money, but microscopic amounts -- it's just more fun that way than watching a demo account.

Bigcat

hi bigcat,
woooo! So ....grimacing.....covering eyes......has it at least gone ...........ok for you so far? since what date, may I ask, have you started per trade dates on "our" thread? 1 mini, or multiple minis?

Be good confident raiser for group in hearing this and more!

I'd sure love to have that min Thou myself now (!!!) to do my own eNNya-II trades, but for now I've done my best at making it a labor of love.......or at least that's the mojo as an excuse, eh? Need to top off my fxcm account first with few hundred by next paycheck so that I'm only couple hundred short of a Thou for my fxengines.com founder's select engine .......soon to open its demo & live auto trading with their engines. Hottest thing I found whilst researching NNs.......had to do that looking as it appeared couple times I might not find NN solution, as many haven't, frankly. Needed a 100-pip/mo min system as I'm not sure about Soc.-Sec past age 62 in 7 years, and after lots of looking around seemed that was hottest I found. The owner/operator Scott is even the nicest helpful guy too.


Jolly good then!

[Batcheler]

For your Sunday nite enjoyment
here is this evenings chart for just now trained up to 12304 with 3 years prior then Walked-forward into UN-trained region dates 12604 thru now. Seems almost uncanny how it can possibly "know" all the peak & trough max points, doesn't it?
http://www.freeviralvisitors.com/TD_...kFWD_12304.bmp
Seems I have more time to train-tweak between trades rather than be rushed now, thus more thorough wide search can be done. And wow its showing unbelievable signs of perfection in the walk-forward that is unmatchable!
In middle of chart dates horizontally you'll see one dip example I was talking about before, see how it dips before it "obeys eNNya-II" (Obey price-curve, damn-it obey! LOL ). Seems around 150 pips, after which it continues per eNNya-II. So 160 as a SL loss of saying, "ok, enough on the chancing it.....I wait 30-50 pips above this SL to see if she rises again" (do these kinds of SL and re-entries as you like), and according to looks of things, curve OBEYS eNNya, OR it will give Sig to switch or cut-out of trade direction mid that down__turn_point and we take a loss......but here its seeming so trained that such isn't happening for a year! On EURUSD yet! And I'm going to probably re-train every 2-3 trades AT LEAST! This here was trained up to 1_23_04 and then its "let-'er ride" for a year, one bar after another totally unknown ahead ----"walk-forward test" ----no training up 'til today!

now do folks see why I had "no stops" thoughts as being "probably ok", but as Oscar points out, for extreme emergencies, at least 250 to protect 3/4 ones equity, 150_SL to play it safe and feel ok, and re-entries above that whence seeing curve obeys eNNya. LOL

OK, thought this might be some interest for you on this Sun eve. Am I suppose to write a book now entitled "and you thought chaotic markets aren't 100% predictable?" Maybe it be one hot seller! Any writers out there?

"Obey eNNya!" (like those "Obey your thirst" commercials!) Maybe if I get new domain name that be one selection. LOL

Have blessed Sun eve folks!

[bigcat]

Jerry,

I just started trading your signals 1 week ago, and for the first week I am down $36 or 138 pips. I am only trading about 3 mini-mini's or equivalent of approx. $3000 actual position size. I have an account at where you can trade lots as low as $1 (yep, that's 1/100,000 of a standard lot). It's great for money management to adjust trade sizes to keep risk the same per trade when overall account balance changes.

That chart you put up tonight is one impressive piece of work! I can see why you are excited. It will be interesting to follow along the journey!

Now if the markets would kindly start trending strongly ...

Bigcat

[FXLearning]

Jerry,

I was watching the graph you included. In particular, the second or third signal that you have in June 2004. The signal says to sell at around 1.2175; however, there is no counter signal to buy back. So eventually, the prices move beyond the level of the original sell signal.

The next signal is again a sell signal at around 1.2310; however, there is no buy back signal, and the prices eventually move again beyond the original sell signal (reaching as high as about 1.2450).

Both of these signals would have produced apparently a profit originally, and afterwards a loss.

You have other signals with this same pattern. May I suggest that you place a stop loss order into your system, or a trailing stop loss to lock in some profits.

If this situation occurs again, you will have an exit signal. The NN does not know about losses in forex. You have to supply this additional information.

Regards,

FXL

[sanpedro]

Hi FX Learning
I think the one at 1.2175 with the empty green triangle is an exit signal not a sell (see post #106). The next one is explained in post #114. The price goes up above the signal but then comes done and that is why a 160 stop is suggested.

Thanks
Peter

[Batcheler]

Trades (4/18),

EURSUSD, eNNya still in a Long, especially since market reacted from stock s@&t, so no new trade yet until it cuts-out (yes, those are close trades those empty arrows), and re-enters new one.

USDJPY also in something per eNNya-II, a Short, so we're waiting for a change here too to do our first trade.

So no trades while we play waiting game with eNNya-II, otherwise if we were already in those games she's playing we'd already be winning! ain't THAT somethin'! lol

[Batcheler]

Originally Posted by sanpedro

Hi FX Learning
I think the one at 1.2175 with the empty green triangle is an exit signal not a sell (see post #106). The next one is explained in post #114. The price goes up above the signal but then comes done and that is why a 160 stop is suggested.

Thanks
Peter

You are correct sanpedro, in your info to fxlearning, thx.

[bsystem]

Hope today have a very good trade