JPY- long term !!

[ronnimar]

u realy think 114 is the next target ?
i see in the weekly chart a bearish divergence !!
but 114 ?

[interesting]

of course, i may be wrong that's why i never cover all at onсe
i just suppose that it could unfold into correction until Feb 1st when uptrend continues and i suppose it should be a sharp one to get new money into play on grounds of higher than expected US core PPI and core CPI readings(MoM and YoY) that means that there's a sign of inflation appears in US economy in long run (mr Bernanke warned us already about it early this month) so this in its turn mean that expected profits of US companies in short term will decrease cause they need to build up inventories to meet buyers willingness to buy more (CPI tells 'em this) it triggered recent oil and gold bounce-up and declining of stocks avgs so the yield first flattens and then should decline as well cause they need to finance these shipping of oil gasolin copper gold and silver and if the PCE report will not confirm the willingness of buyers to buy more in short run base metals and oil fall again yield start to rise again and usdjpy up and up but on the other hand it all could be ignored and the pair stay flat until next ISM report that the place where i may be wrong(114 is too far now ur right, 118.5 may all right for correction) so live and see ))

[modi]

The fall started from 133.81 (April 2002) is a complex corrective combination which ended at 104.18 (May 2005) upon me. My analysis suggests that it is wave (C) of a multi years sideways movement in a triangle. The current move up is wave (D) of this triangle which is developing as a flat correction with wave C of (D) under way now. The said wave C of (D) could be an impulse or a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). Currently I do not see any reasons to label the rise started from 108.97 as impulsive so I think a terminal impulse is developing here. In such a case there is still much time before its completing because there is still no confirmation that wave 3 has already ended and also wave 4 and 5 are missing i.e. there are months before the end of wave C. The possible target for it is the zone between 124 and 126 yen per dollar. The interesting here is the fact that if the suggestion for a terminal impulse turns the correct scenario, we should see a sharp retrace to at least 100 % once it is completed i.e. a fall to at least 108.97 in wave (E) of the said triangle. So my expectations for this currency pair is forming a multi months high in coming months and beginning of a serious move down with a target 108.97 in the next year.


This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

[interesting]

i'm still waiting for correction
option target for current upmove 121.9 then i expect move down to 117.8 initially and may even fall further on to 115.5 before next up leg starts targetting 124 mark
of course if 121.9 breached then upmove continues towards 123.5-124 ))
i agree with modi sharp decline may start with reaching 124 but 108 may not hold and final target whould be 105.5
however live and see ))
good luck everybody

[modi]

Hi Interesting,
upon my scenario 108.97 should be the minimum target and 105.50 is also allowable.

Regards

[ampris2000]

i assume we're talking about usd/jpy

the monthly chart is giving a buy signal. prices are sitting right at support.

the weekly chart is giving a buy signal. there may be some retracement coming.

the daily chart is giving an "almost" a buy signal. (in the beginning stages of forming).

the four hour chart is not trending at this time. the market on the 4h is bullish.

[interesting]

let us do the final rally towards 124
i added a bit

ha-ha, not yet but in process of setting up
it was just a bounce-up, some money was raised and position closed
there came to be a divergence in stock averages so i waiting 119.2/3 as next zone to bounce up another 100 pips, i dont like to trade against swaps
however it's nice opportunity to take a position on futures ))

[interesting]

watch eurodollar October 2005, dont u think it looks like present situation?
plus 2 months correlation, so euro uptrend could start in march so jpysdoomed to make new high until that
i take another long attempt