JPY- long term !!

[ronnimar]

this is my daily jpy set-up ,look's quiet reasonable to me .

[interesting]

here's my view on situation (monthly)
i think usdjpy strike 116.4 next week then 2week of correction to 113.8 and another upmove to 118.4 then again correction to 116.4-115.8 and final rally to 121.6/80
according to my plan it'll take up to 5 monthes to come true

[UM_manager]

Hi interesting,

Your variant looks very unlikely. We expect expect that the price will lower in the short-term perspective. The gap at 116 will not be closed.

[interesting]

hi UM,
i see, u think that lagging index at peak or has already on its way down, so the leading index bottomed out and starts upmove next month(i.e economy expanding), so the classical monetary rules tell u that %rates should be raised and M2 cut, but to do so u need good bonds auctions results...
which, unfortunatley, failed, then, in order to maintain monetary stability, to nip crisis in the bud, u should pump the market with cheap cash again, as we can see it has taken place this night(i mean report on broad liquidity), so what to do - to change orientation

[UM_manager]

You're right, good auctions results are necessary to cut liquidity. But remember, Fukui and others in BoJ noticed several times rate hike "speculation", which has materialized. Investors are not willing to buy Japan bonds now, at relatively expensive levels and expect BoJ to raise rates and sell bonds at cheaper price.

It's worth mentioning, that the latest aggregates report aslo showed that bank lending rose in one more month, though slightly less than expected. Machinery orders report today also pointed to expanding economy. Corporations expand, borrow and invest.

[naz9403]

Long term us fed fund rate vs usd jpy

Correlation is easy to pick up

[interesting]

verbal intervention
that whats now taking place
2006.06.09 17:05:08 *JAPAN'S TANIGAKI SAYS DISCUSSED EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY WITH US' SNOW

[golhuntsleep]

that's been happening for a while.......just march someone out and say the word deflation and that you see signs of it still in the economy...........usually happens right after I push the sell button.......