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[popoola]

Hi Guys

Opening this thread to discuss the above topic. On this site I have 2 threads which I have allowed to die a slow death. I am hoping this one will not. I will provide links to those threads/journal so that you will be able to read about where I am coming from with respect to trading.

I have scalped. I have also traded the hourly, 4hourly charts on an intraday basis. I have also traded the daily charts. In my experience the latter has been more profitable for me and still is. I am a voracious reader and have traded various systems. I work fulltime in the day and hence my preference for longer term trading. You are welcome to contribute to the thread as you wish...

Recently my trading has been influenced by Elliott Wave analysis. I only have rudimentary wave counting experience and will only trade if the count is simple and straightforward. I jump in headlong if my other trading systems aggree with my simple elliott wave count.

By the way Summerset - a guru on this forum has greatly influenced my trading. Others are Currencia, Noor, DKalense, ruudboy, Joe Ross etc.

[popoola]

Just Scouring the net and came upon some analysis by some guy. The prediction is that the euro is going to its starting roots again! I have enclosed his weekly chart which is based on elliott. As I said my elliott is rudimentary but this count makes sense when you add all the fundamentals to the equation...

[popoola]

Great action in the GBP/USD today. I want to put it to us that the euro is due for a bounce. Consequently the usdchf is due for a descent. One of my systems the ICWR system is signalling a usdchf short when we get a full candle close below 1.1570 with a 100 pip stop. We will wait and see how this plays out.

Secondly, Sorry to bring this up - Elliott wave analysis shows the possibility of a c wave down starting. If this count is correct price should not go above 1.1883 soon.

Charts uploaded...

[popoola]

Speculative short on the usdchf here @1.1580 looking for 100 pips TP and 50 pips SL

[popoola]

Trade closed for +81pips.

[popoola]

I will be looking to sell the usdchf around 1.1550 if I can get it. Corrent price is 1.1510.

Euro is looking for a breakout. If we get one we could see 200 pips very quickly...

[popoola]

Sold the usdchf @1.1568 stop @1.1598 TP @1.1498 by limit order. This trade closed profitably for +100pips. More analysis later

[popoola]

So far I have been able to get 181pips profit out of the usdchf.

However I dont understand what happened midday time New your where we had the euro retrace a lot of its gain and consequently the swissie retraced its losses (or vice versa!). I still fell the usdchf should fall and break 1.1439 - the low today. For that to happen we need the stock market to rally hard again and for no new negative news from euroland

I am short again from 1.1581 stop @1.1631 looking for 100 pips profit. My stop the high of the last candle. In real sense it should be above 1.1650 - an important pivot point

Chart updated...

[popoola]

Moved the stop to 1.1651. As said above the best place for the stop was above 1.1650. If this gets stopped out then trend is bullish again and we are going to attack the 1.18 area again

[popoola]

Stopped out of the trade -71pips. Price is holding around the stop point for now. Some stock indices are rolling over. Is this rally in the stocks going to be sustained for more than one day? If not then the euro is going back down in my opinion.

[popoola]

Very unfortunate trade today. Market took my extended stop out and proceeded to do exactly what I thought it would do.

That is trading for you. However we cannot fail to see that there is a retracement in the strenght of the US$ and the euro is going higher. It might not be easy to get meaningful retracements to buy making risk higher

[popoola]

Is the usdjpy correcting? I see a rudimentary Head and Shoulder on the 4hr chart. Add that to the abc eliott correction we might have a trade here on the break of the neck line.

Fundamentals against this trade is the usual carry trade where the yen is sold and a currency with better yield is bought. This happens when the stock market is going up. Secondly the japanese country as a whole is just as bad as in debt as any other calling for weaker currency

However we as traders - technical traders , need to trade what we see

[popoola]

Speculative sell in the aussie @0.6495 stop @.6525 TP 0.6445

This is a counter trend trade...

[popoola]

Closed out the trade @0.6484 (+11pips)

[popoola]

break of the usdjpy shoulder line imminent... or is the market teasing...