longer term better?

[rhymin Simon]

theres been a bit of comment on longer term trades in FX of late...My ears pricked up at this...I had been turning my thoughts in that very direction. OK, bearing in mind I'm a newbie here, there seems like a lot of practical sense in this notion it seems to me.

Looking at the Forex, isn't it more true to say not that its a 24 hour market, but that is a WEEKLY (5 day) market. It doesn't stop and start between then. Think of all the time even the most avid day trader misses out on potential profits. This could be why even looking even the daily ranges of price are not only a good bit higher but MUCH higher in terms of profit potential.

Of course the downside! There is bigger risk at least at the begining stages of a trade. If the trade goes against you in the early stages we could be looking at stopping out with a BIG loss. My plan is to start with minis..then at least a 60 pip reversal on the first day to the stop costs $60 or so and not $600!.

Back to the upside. I think I'm right in saying that wider time frames tend to be better at trending. Intra day I have come across all too frequent whipsaws and ranges that have cost dear (its easy to lose $600 in day this way!)

So once a trade goes your way and has gone enough to cover the spread and move the stop up to breakeven point safely, the nerves are over. The only thing that needs doing is trail the stop.
and

[mishak]

Good thinking, Simon

Just pay attention to major fundamental events during the week that may reverse the major trend.
And Friday is usually a take profit day.

Take care and have fun

[alanc]

Simon

Been thinking same as you for some time. I'm new to forex and have yet to start trading.

I've taken time out of my day job and spent past 4 weeks studying price action using fib retracements and extensions for both entries and exits. Not easy to do, but when they work they get you in early for good 2-3 day swings. 150 to 250 pip moves, more on some spreads.

What do you use?

PS I'm a Brit living in Antwerp.....where are you?

[alanc]

Simon

Forgot to add following:

I use an macd set at 12, 26, 1 momentum indicator on the daily and 720 minutes and focus trades in that direction. I also use it to identify divergencies.

Alan

[darmasdt]

mishak and simon, was that mean you prefer to trade off the weekly chart? or daily chart? TIA

[Medran]

Originally posted by rhymin Simon
theres been a bit of comment on longer term trades in FX of late...My ears pricked up at this...I had been turning my thoughts in that very direction. OK, bearing in mind I'm a newbie here, there seems like a lot of practical sense in this notion it seems to me.
and

You're completely on the right track! I'd go as far as to say that it seems likely that you cannot make consistent and reliable profits from day trading. I need to qualify that by saying that I mean consistent based upon a proven 5-year back test.... but you can be consitently profitable with position trading (ie following day bars or even longer period bars).

My present strategy is to trade infrequently, to compound gains and to use quite aggressive money management rules based upon a high probability of success and carefully controlled risk (ie when you do trade trade big and keep the stops as tight as your analysis allows).

Hope this helps.

Have fun

[Batcheler]

Yea Simon!

I'm newbie too, was going in various directions of figuring out TA and forex robot trading method 'til last week I took long pause and meditated, and Lo! to my surprise, a method "fell out of the sky" using 1-day bars similar to what you've realized Simon! And Boy am I "whew!" happy 'cause there is quite a few complex ways to go and this is right up there in the meditative easy cloud PLUS expedites the show starting!! I HAD actually noticed this somehow before, but for some reason using logic I ended-up with erroneous desire to worry about the initial whipsaws so said "well, seems there is money to be made going INTO the thray!" WRONG! There is more loss to gains ratio caused by the up 'n downs BEFORE one gets to the "swings" you want, but pick an analysis on 1-day, note the way way lower quantity of these whipsaws between swings PLUS the casual nature of arriving or waking any time of day to look at chart for any major and do your thing! But let the 95% who'll also take the dive have the same logic error that clings to greed because that's what assists the overall trend curve, thanks you TAers! LOL :-0 Of course do say 100 pip stops IF YOU'D LIKE (not necessary if you pick right TA that will have you reverse if trend reverses), but if trend continues after doing close a stop order to re-enter is appropriate. Even a 2000 bar on a free chart service from some e-broker becomes like a historic study WITHOUT metaserver and datafeed service!!! I was going to do w/o stops on mini, but noticed that instead of putting up with rare pccassional times of
-300 swing before reversing via indicator why not have 3 majors entered into each with 100 pip stops!? Thus three times the launch speed via into three majors ride!
Anyhoo.....disclaimer........I remind any newbies like myself that this is my level of TA on this matter, not the holy grail, I probably have it down close but maybe with some missing holes, so be advized.........I have had this glorious personal win of discovering, so felt to look in moneytec to see if any thread on Trends was in here to share this, and LO! There's Simon with recent post! Let's stay in touch via this thread gang! I am doing demo 'til Oct or Nov upon whence I will go live with this and my hopefully saved-up "puny" $1000. I think it's with high likelihood we got it gang! :-) btw, cms before looked like the pits per some forum comments, but their year end reports plus continuing to advance software intentions PLUS I noticed WAY better customer service response past few days.....whewwwaaa! looks good for their future!

jerry
pws: any Pros with helpful comments on my response is appreciated

[milo]

Swing or position trading seems to have many
advantages over day trading- some of the more obvious being,

-Less time watching (and shouting) at charts
-more sleep since I dont have to wake up at
2 est. time to watch markets
-trends are more defined less whipsaw ie. USD/JPY
had 6 consecutive bullish candles on weekly charts
in April/May (about 1000 pips)
-More resistant to intraday price fluctuations from
" almost" insignificant news tidbits which sometimes take out
short term trades

Now I guess the only problem is to find a reliable system
with a stoploss I can live with!