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[idejan]

Hi all
This is going to be kind of a continuation of my previous thread (My Elliott Wave Charts) so those not familiar could well get some intro there.

Although listed in long term recommendations, I will post my view on the market on both long term (months to years) and short term (days to weeks to months).

I will update on relevant market developments (confirmation and invalidations of my view).

I've started a journal here but it somehow does not record the editing of posts, so one could easily modify past posts, so it won't be realy good public record. It also does not have a pictures attaching possibilities, and at some point I'd like to have a chart with my comments.

Since I'll do this just for the public test and record, I would advice you to read the note at the end.

In the following post I will paste my posts from the journal just to fill the gap between my last post in the thread till today.

Best to all,
ID

Disclaimer: Please read this carefully before you use any information contained herein.

All market commentaries and expressions are my personal opinion and aren"t meant to be either investment advice or recommendation to establish market positions. Trading in general and trading of currencies are speculative and involve substantial risk. By using the material provided here, you acknowledge that you are familiar with these risks and that you are solely responsible for the outcomes of your decisions. I do not accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material.

While I'll try to ensure that all of the information is kept up-to-date and accurate, I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information supplied. I strongly advise you to conduct thorough research relevant to decisions and verify facts from various sources.

[idejan]

Since somehow it is not posible to download the journal (I get empty txt file), instead of pasting it here, I've made it public.
best to all
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Since somehow it is not posible to download the journal (I get empty txt file), instead of pasting it here, I've made it public.
best to all
ID

I apologize to all that were trying to access my Journal just to find out that almost all posts are still private. I've just find out that I need to unlock every single post one by one. I somehow expected it will be done by simply making the Journal Public.

I once again apologize to all.
ID

[idejan]

Outlook still the same. (previous posts and journal entries).
We are in a correction of the larger EUR bull trend since 2001.
What looked like end of this correction low from 5 july @ 1.1862) is in fact just end of the first leg of this larger correction. If so, then 2 more legs are to follow (1 up and 1 down) of which the second is already in play with finished first leg up, second playing.
This second should find support arround 1.2/1.19 and third up to 1.26/27
Below 1.2000/1.1900 the bearish long term trend could start to unfold, and below 1.1750 we could have a reversal of trend confirmed.
Such a scenario is unlikely by my opinion, and in some of the post to follow I'll post few charts to explain.

I don't like to clatter this thread with my intraday comments, so I'm posting them in my Journal.

possible bullish development confirmation above 1.2525 (unlikely)

Short term below 1.2250/60 is the bearish territory
Medium term below 1.2353 and 1.2620 (bearish territory)
(intraday in my journal)
ID

[idejan]

Sideways trading is difficult to forecast and more difficult to trade.
My view is that we will have a prolongated sideway trading in the months to come in the range of 1.19/20 to 1.26/27 before a break up. On such a break targets are above 1.5
Below 1.1750/30 is a long way down.

I have explained my view in detail in few previous posts, now let see how it looks on the chart.
On the chart is the market from july low till present day.

Now on the chart below, Wave (B) of the Minute degree Zigzag which is in play at the time of the post (the middle black line at right end of the chart is playing now), should complete arround 1.23 and 1.2356 but could extend as far as 1.2450 as explained earlier. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 30-Aug-2005.

After wave (B) is complete, market will continue down into wave (C). It should retrace wave (B) by 133% or arround 1.2046 but could extend below 1.19
That (C) will end Wave X of the Minor degree inverted Flat with targets between 1.1995 and 1.2046 with possibility to extend below 1.19 and time for it's completion anytime between 25-Aug-2005 and 05-Dec-2005 which synchronizes well.
After wave X is complete, market will relly up into wave Y, which should be a five wave Impulsive pattern. Expect wave Y to be 98% - 172% of the price length of wave W.
Wave Y will complete this Double Sideways pattern wave (b) which is second leg of the biger degree correction*.
However, ....(continue in next post)
ID

[idejan]

... the correction from 12 august from 1.2487 to 1.2122 could qualify as wave X it self. In such a scenario we will see a very decisive move up above 1.2525 to most probably arround 1.2730/50 since if this scenario is in play, most probable target zone for the wave Y of the Minor degree inverted Double 3 is between 1.2530 and 1.3167. Time to complete is sometime between 31-Aug-2005 and 21-Sep-2005.
With a lot of sluggishness this days, it is possible that some unexpected event could force the market strongly either way.
However, I still hold my view presented in previous post, keeping my mind open for possibilities.
Best to all,
ID

[onepip]

Idejan :

Thanks for share your knowledge about Elliot Waves. I am a newbie in EW but i'm sure you are making a very good work.

Cheers
Onepip

[idejan]

Tnx onepip,
In my previous thread I've posed my view on CAD$, and also in my Journal.
My long term view stil remains very bullish on CAD.
However (and that was my mistake), it is most probably still in a laregr consolidation, and after bottoming around 1.17 as I've targeted previously, would most probably have another bounce up to arround 1.27, before a longer term downtrend down to below 1.0
I'm sorry that at this stage I'm not producing more charts, but at the moment I just could not find enough time for that. I hope that as soon as I catch some more time I'd produce more charts and a detailed analysis on few other currency pairs beside EUR and CAD (I'm not promising but will try to take a look on GBP, JPY and AUD).
What I hope here, is to find people who share same or similar complementary views, as we could hopefully, in time, build a team. Joint efforts could produce better results. Everyone can learn something from everybody.
Best to all,
ID

PS. My intraday comments are in my journal.

[pmha]

Hi interesting elliott wave analysis,(correct me if im wrong)

But why all the waves when pure and simple support and resistance shows the same and until these levels are broken none of us will no the direction.

USDCAD

Monthly
we have major support going back to the year 1991 at 1.1187 .
Resistance at 1.2763.

Weekly

Support at 1.1716
Resistance 1.2747

Daily

At support now
Resistance 1.2221

regards

[idejan]

Originally Posted by pmha

Hi interesting elliott wave analysis,(correct me if im wrong)

But why all the waves when pure and simple support and resistance shows the same and until these levels are broken none of us will no the direction.
...
regards

hi pmha,
most probably because it works for me same as s/r works for you.
Ew gives a direction and S/R levels. But then probably other TA gives that too. It is up to your personal preferences then, to decide what is best for you, but more improtant, what WORKS for you. Simply, something will work not just because it is working, but more because it gives you confidence about your view on the market. At the end of the day, it's not realy important how good some TA is, but how good one uses it, and how good it works for him/her (as with any other tool).
Regards
ID
PS. it gives direction in advance and then some s/r are just confirmation/invalidation.

[idejan]

Hi

I took a weekend from Friday to the near by beautiful lake of Ohrid, just came back and I'll do the analysis tomorrow, but from what I can see from the chart it would most probably be the end of this short upward move. Now the most probable levels are as in previous post and journal entries. I'll also mind the other possibility mentioned in, hm, I believe it was #5 post in this thread.
With the latest development, a break below 1.2207 is needed to indicate a possible move lower.
Tomorrow then.
Best to all
ID

[idejan]

A short update on CAD$ since there is a possibility of a change in intermediate trend.

Originally Posted by idejan

...
In my previous thread I've posed my view on CAD$, and also in my Journal.
My long term view still remains very bullish on CAD.
... after bottoming around 1.17 as I've targeted previously, would most probably have another bounce up to around 1.27, before a longer term downtrend down to below 1.0...

The ongoing consolidation (at the moment of the post) could most probably find resistance around 1.2036 but could also extend to 1.2080
Break below 1.1945 would suggest continuation down to at least 1.1860 and below to 1.1784/1.1717
A move above last week's high at 1.2142 would suggest CAD$ had bottomed and new correction toward 1.26/27 is in progress.
ID

While I was writing this the CAD fell down to 1.1925. So chances of a continuation down are now more certain.

[idejan]

I was very busy all day today and when I was back I was caught unguarded with that huge extension up on EURUSD chart. And just as I was preparing my comment on a market I stopped to see the news first .
A shocking terrible disaster in US. On top of that CNN broadcasted a sad anniversary reportage on a horrible tragedy in a school in Beslan, Russia, were hundreds of children were killed. Horrible. Being father of a five year boy child, I could not express how unimaginably horrifying this stories are to me. So many people dead in New Orleans and hundreds of thousands lost their homes, jobs. Terrifying. And then more then 900 dead in a Pilgrim stampede in Iraq mostly children and women.
Moments like this reminds me how precious life is.
I find it very inappropriate talking and analyzing market move caused by a tragedy.
A very sad day.
ID

[idejan]

Well impressive indeed.
Since we are on a kind of a juncture of a minor trend important however on the longer term development.
Below 1.2487/1.2525 reversal to 1.21/20 is the most probable scenario.
Break above 1.2525 will open the road to 1.26/27 levels which is also very possible. So I hold neutral bias to slightly bearish.
I'm trying short from here (@1.246) with stops just above 1.2525 but will move them to break even on proper development.
First short term support is around 1.2450/30 which is the first level to watch. If price bounce from this level above recent high then it's to 1.2525 to determine the near term direction. If it hold down to 1.21/20 if it breaks, to 1.26 and above.
In my thread - post #6 I have published the possibility of this kind of a scenario.
On the downside we are seeing the same previously resistance levels now support @ 1.2390/2370/2355
Breaking of 1.2370 will increase the probability of continuing down, and break below 1.2355 should confirm that.
As I was writing this, price fell to 1.2456 and it's now back to 1.2463. Break above 1.2465 will increase probabilities of continuing to at least 1.2487 to 1.2525 and possibly above.
Just while I'm writing something that could look like an impulsive move down is starting to unfold.
But it is far from the confirmation so the bias is still neutral to slightly bearish and I'll use this development to lower my stops to break even.
ID
it is about to hit fist support at 1.2450

[idejan]

My stops were hit at break even some two hours ago. It was set to go to 1.2525 and now I'm in @ 1.2519 where my limit sell order was placed. Now I believe we are about to see a reversal down.
But then, in situations like this an old saying somehow always comes back to me: if you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans.
ID

S @ 1.2457/60; 1.2390/83
Targets down as in previous posts and in Journal, and I will revise them after some Market development on my Charts.