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[bearprofits]

Idejan,

Thank you for your insights.

Thought I’d chime in with my bearish euro view.

Have been thinking north the past couple of weeks but now am turning my sights south briefly for what I hope is that ending 5th wave. Numerous smaller time frame fib level confluence and some channel and trend line resistance here at the 1969/82 area.

Trying to target the 1640 low or lower, will be watching price later this week if the plan will hold together thru tomorrow’s sessions and rate announcement.

See if the Bear can find a jar of honey somewhere south of here???

Thanks again for your efforts.

Bear

[Miki1357]

Originally Posted by idejan

USDX now has a critical support @ 90.67 and 89.35/25
ID

I see you are using MT4 and $ index chart. I am trying to activate $ index but no success . Can you tell, how can I do that?

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Miki1357

I see you are using MT4 and $ index chart. I am trying to activate $ index but no success . Can you tell, how can I do that?

Pozdrav Miki

Use Alpari they have USDX (_DXY), Crude, Gold and few other Indexes, CFDs and Futures feeds.
In fact I was working on few indicators and that's the main reson I've started using MT4.

Zivjo
ID

[Miki1357]

Originally Posted by idejan

Pozdrav Miki

Use Alpari they have USDX (_DXY), Crude, Gold and few other Indexes, CFDs and Futures feeds.
In fact I was working on few indicators and that's the main reson I've started using MT4.

Zivjo
ID

Thanks for the info
I am using IBFX & MetaQuotes, they have all kind of indexes but no USDX
Here I go to Alpari

[idejan]

U r welcome.

Originally Posted by idejan

Nothing much to add to previous. (see the above comment first)

USDX now has a critical support @ 90.67 and 89.35/25
Gold overshot the above targets and now it seems to be going to above 562 possibly as far as 594. Not positive for USD.
Crude contained at the mentioned resistance for now and break below 58.7 and 58.2 would ease the pressure up.

EUR 1.1898 is the critical resistance... on break to 1.2049 to 1.2094
break above that would open to 1.24 and above.

GBP most probably to top 1.7728 to 1.7787

JPY 120.37 to 119.68 break below that to 117/113/110

ID

USDX is about to hit the support at 89.35/25 so a very possible continuation up is very close.

EUR close to a possible reversal down and continuation below the 1.1639 low.
watch around 1.2085 for a sell off.

GBP seems to be reversing down. It has a possible double top before stronger move down occurs, but on a break of the recent high 1.82 is open. Needs to break below 1.75 to confirm continuation down and that's the first target down.

JPY
Believe that it is already in the continuation up but it could have one more down to 117.23 before.

CAD
To below 1.14 targets.


Watch out carefully now. For those Day trading this could be a nice low risk opportunity. On all USD based pairs (including CHF and AUD possibly others too) both possible up targets and down targets are on average close to 400 pips
Take care
ID

[bearprofits]

Idejan,

Excellent call !

Please keep up the great work.

Bear

[idejan]

Tnx Bear but not that good lately
except maybe on JPY but I was focused on it since it had and still has greatest potential on the down side.

post #127 from 5/12/2005

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
As I said, reached the possible reversal zone, achieved first and almost the second target @ 120.85 and 121.31 (got to 121.27 now) next is 121.75
There is a great resistance area from here to around 126.6 back from 1988 which could be seen on the monthly chart.
There are also trend line from Aug '98 just above it's head around 121.45 and one from '85 around 122.5, also two fibs 61.8 of the drop from Feb 2002 to Jan 2005 @ 122.39 and 127.2 fib ext from beginning of the year @ 124.1
Break below 119 and then 116.5 to signal possible if not reversal then larger correction to min of around 113 and only break below 111/110 could confirm possible continuation down to below 90.

post #135 from 12/12/2005

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
120.37 to 119.68 break below that to 117/113/110

post #140 from 14/12/2005

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
Believe that it is already in the continuation up but it could have one more down to 117.23 before.

It broke that critical first support on the Daily so of all pairs I cover here only the JPY looks like its reversing. It made a top right in the target zone and made strong move down that judging by it's pattern could qualify for a good reversal start. I said could qualify since it didn't started quite as clear as I'd prefer for an IM and only this last drop has a clear IM structure, which could be finished wave 1 if it's a reversal or a finished wave A of a possible correction. However it looks like it could finish little lower around 115 to 114.8 and there is a support on the weekly right @ 115.67.
Drop below 113.15 would be a good indication of a possible top and reversal @ 121.38 but you can also expect a correction from one of this targets before a continuation to min of 107.
The definite confirmation would come only after the 111/110 is taken down.
If however this is not a reversal yet, then a 3 wave sideways pattern could be expected to stay above 113 before a continuation up, but should stay above 111.
If this second scenario confirms, than targets on the North would need to be revised and moved more to the North.

Originally Posted by idejan

USDX is about to hit the support at 89.35/25 so a very possible continuation up is very close.

EUR close to a possible reversal down and continuation below the 1.1639 low.
watch around 1.2085 for a sell off.

GBP seems to be reversing down. It has a possible double top before stronger move down occurs, but on a break of the recent high 1.82 is open. Needs to break below 1.75 to confirm continuation down and that's the first target down.

JPY
Believe that it is already in the continuation up but it could have one more down to 117.23 before.

CAD
To below 1.14 targets.


Watch out carefully now. For those Day trading this could be a nice low risk opportunity. On all USD based pairs (including CHF and AUD possibly others too) both possible up targets and down targets are on average close to 400 pips
Take care
ID

GBP and CHF should be into continuation of a previous trend (down and up respectively) but EUR looks like it has one more shot up before it continues down.
Of course, break above those levels in the previous post (cited here) would change the picture.
ID
______________________________

Now something else
I've been ask about how could one use my comments.
Well, although I explicitly said that I'm not going to give any recommendation I could just comment on my comments since no one did.
I tend to keep an unbiased view on the market, and a friend asked me how come I've become bullish on USD just at the time it seems it could be giving up. The fact is I'm not bullish on dollar. I was bullish on dollar from November 2004 (and it's why I still have problem with that top in December ) till middle of June, and from then I was cautiously bearish on dollar till 1.17 as I was writing in few occasions here on MoneyTec. After the break below 1.17 I'm neutral.
Now about how this can be used.
Beside my view on where the Market is most probably to be going, I tend to give you levels which are good indication that I'm wrong and also the targets on the other side. So practically it's like having a Gate with targets on the both side. So it up to your own view on the market, your confidence and risk aversion, to develop or use with your strategy based on the potentials (which include: entry level, stop loss in pips, and possible targets in pips).
You could always calculate and consider what if scenarios in both directions.
Hope this is of some help,
Take care it's your money your call and your responsibility.
ID

[bearprofits]

Idejan,

Firstly, wanted to say thank you, for all the work you’ve done on the boards. Imho, yours is one of the few really educational threads.

Thought I’d chime in with my end of the year glimpse at the charts before it’s time for a bit of Holiday and Vacation Hibernation.

A Bear’s Folly………..

If this view of the chart is correct, and we are in the 5th wave of a larger 5th….. We could and should guess that the 3rd wave will not be the shortest. So taking the length of the 3rd and projecting from the top of smaller 4 we should get the max drop for 5 @ 1.1524.

Are we in for a truncated 5th???

Have been watching 2 cycles of lows thru the year which coincided again on the 21st, these show areas of time for reversal so they might be off a day or two but as we race towards 2006, it’s my guess that it’s time to start looking north again for the new year.

Let’s see if price will grant us a nice Holiday present these last few days with one last nice drop.

Anyways the Bear is all but gone for a few weeks, wishing everyone Peace for the Holidays!

[idejan]

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to all of you and your families.
ID

[idejan]

Hope you all enjoyed the holidays.
I apology not being here to follow my previous calls. There were some nice pips on JPY and GBP. Mean while I've posted just a brief overview at FXsurfer thread few days ago on EURUSD and it played well

Originally Posted by idejan

So just of precaution : the lower boundary held and clear break below 1.18 is needed to confirm retest of 1.1639 low and to below 1.15/1.14 targets, but break above 1.1865/80 could lead to 1.1990 to 2055. Break above that will very probably lead to around 1.245 and possibly even more to the north.
ID

Just as I was preparing charts GBP made just below the critical RES @ 1.7453 noted on the Chart. 1.7386<>7373 is the first possible target down and bounce up zone.

[idejan]

JPY

Originally Posted by idejan

It broke that critical first support on the Daily so of all pairs I cover here only the JPY looks like its reversing. It made a top right in the target zone and made strong move down that judging by it's pattern could qualify for a good reversal start. I said could qualify since it didn't started quite as clear as I'd prefer for an IM and only this last drop has a clear IM structure, which could be finished wave 1 if it's a reversal or a finished wave A of a possible correction. However it looks like it could finish little lower around 115 to 114.8 and there is a support on the weekly right @ 115.67.
Drop below 113.15 would be a good indication of a possible top and reversal @ 121.38 but you can also expect a correction from one of this targets before a continuation to min of 107.
The definite confirmation would come only after the 111/110 is taken down.
If however this is not a reversal yet, then a 3 wave sideways pattern could be expected to stay above 113 before a continuation up, but should stay above 111.
If this second scenario confirms, than targets on the North would need to be revised and moved more to the North.

My favorite pair for some time is USDJPY and it was rewarding
Here is the followup on it.
I'm really very busy these period so I'll do my best to post at least medium term views. Your help is appreciated, your questions could do the trick making me putting some more effort
May this year bring to all of you many good trades and good fortune.
ID

[idejan]

The advance is leaded by the commodity group so it is worth taking a look at Crude and Gold, as well as to USDX.
This could be seen in AUDUSD and USDCAD with other pairs following.

In my opinion the advance in both Gold and Crude is not a continuation up yet, but in wave B of a correction and as Trader1 cited Prechter - B waves are phonies, which most of the market participants mistake for a continuation of the previous trend.
On Dec 1st I wrote about Crude to correct to above 60 probably 62<>62.50 but not more than 65, and for now we are still in the zone but not finished yet. I believe it has one shot up to finish this B. In that same post I wrote about Gold possibly toping around 507.8<>515.6 and it overshot my target considerably, and now it seems it could go even more up, but after it finishes this correction. However if it breaks above the previous High than we have a continuation up with probable top up to 580. I'll provide more precise details on the Gold in some of the follow-ups
I've chosen to post only Gold and Crude and just comment on US Dollar Index to get clearer Charts (3 would have been too much and would not read)
So, Both Gold and Crude about to finalize their second legs of the correctional pattern and continue to third leg Down, could mean that we could be near end in USD weakness in USD based pairs.
On the other hand USDX is sitting just below weekly support @ 89.83 (price @ 89.76) with next support on the wkly chart @ 87.10 and right on the neckline of a possible H&S targeting 87.67 which is right on the support line @ 87.64 on a Daily which is confluent with the Gold-Crude picture except that I expect that both Crude and Gold are very near their tops and continuation Down and USDX points much lower than I would expect if we insist on strong correlation with previous.
I have a gap in economic news and indicators, if I'm missing something please note.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

The advance is leaded by the commodity group so it is worth taking a look at Crude and Gold, as well as to USDX.
This could be seen in AUDUSD and USDCAD with other pairs following.

In my opinion the advance in both Gold and Crude is not a continuation up yet, but in wave B of a correction and as Trader1 cited Prechter - B waves are phonies, which most of the market participants mistake for a continuation of the previous trend.
On Dec 1st I wrote about Crude to correct to above 60 probably 62<>62.50 but not more than 65, and for now we are still in the zone but not finished yet. I believe it has one shot up to finish this B. In that same post I wrote about Gold possibly toping around 507.8<>515.6 and it overshot my target considerably, and now it seems it could go even more up, but after it finishes this correction. However if it breaks above the previous High than we have a continuation up with probable top up to 580. I'll provide more precise details on the Gold in some of the follow-ups
I've chosen to post only Gold and Crude and just comment on US Dollar Index to get clearer Charts (3 would have been too much and would not read)
So, Both Gold and Crude about to finalize their second legs of the correctional pattern and continue to third leg Down, could mean that we could be near end in USD weakness in USD based pairs.
On the other hand USDX is sitting just below weekly support @ 89.83 (price @ 89.76) with next support on the wkly chart @ 87.10 and right on the neckline of a possible H&S targeting 87.67 which is right on the support line @ 87.64 on a Daily which is confluent with the Gold-Crude picture except that I expect that both Crude and Gold are very near their tops and continuation Down and USDX points much lower than I would expect if we insist on strong correlation with previous.
I have a gap in economic news and indicators, if I'm missing something please note.

ID

After I read the above post I've noticed it's not as clear as it should in the part of USDX and Crude-Gold correlation...
It seems like I'm suggesting that USDX will be going down, which was not my original intention. I've missed to add that if however it stays above this current support, than it will indicate change in direction in all USD based pairs except maybe in JPY. This could be even more confluent with both Crude and Gold if it appear they are so close to the next leg down, which is most often a strong Impulsive move.

ID

Sorry I've missed that, there's no edit anymore

[idejan]

Short follow-up on JPY (above chart post #146)

JPY now sitting right on the support line from the chart 115.56 (price low @ 115.60) and should be contained below 116.88<>117.12 to continue down on break of 115.56/20 SUP zone to 110.76/70 target.
Above the 117.20 is the first sign of a possible continuation up, but will need to break above the RES area 117.50<>118.20 on the chart to confirm possible retest of the 121.38 High and possibly above to new high.
ID

[idejan]

Short followup on GBP (above chart post #145)

There was no retracement and price continued up, and break above 1.7453 was triggered, and a close to 120 pips rally got very close to the first target @ 1.7625 (now this target resistance is little lower at 1.7615 other two as on above chart - 1.7700 and 1.8110)
Needs a break below 1.7653 to ease up pressure.
ID