MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trade Recommendations » Long Term Trade Recommendations

[idejan]

... I expect that it will meet at least this first target @ around 1.7615 and probably even 1.77
just in case you read the previous post as a revision of the targets and a reversal down... I don't expect any correction or reversal before that first target but more probably it will go to the 1.77 before any correction or reversal down.
ID

[SonOfSoros]

Thanks idejan ... good work

[idejan]

Tnx SonOfSoros

Originally Posted by idejan

... I expect that it will meet at least this first target @ around 1.7615 and probably even 1.77

just in case you read the previous post as a revision of the targets and a reversal down... I don't expect any correction or reversal before that first target but more probably it will go to the 1.77 before any correction or reversal down.
ID

Target met, depending on your risk aversion for max. of 162 pips (1.7453 to 1.7615 - but actual 150 from 0.7465 to target), let see if it has a momentum for one more up to 1.77
If it stays above 0.7540/35 it has a chance for meeting 0.77
Chances are in favor for one more up.
Below 0.7535 is a first sign of minute top for a move down to min of .7432/00

JPY still into consolidation, I am confident it will drop down to 111/110, ok I'm biased strongly toward downside, but I'll watch closely 117.20/30 for any surprise. I'll leave mathematics on JPY calls to you ... (this is kind of a payout for close to a month of troubles hunting a possible top from around 113 to around 115 but above that was not bad, and this top was right on target).
Trader01 never revealed the secret about top pickers

I had a nice call on AUDUSD just before the end of the year, and it got right to my target today (in a pip) and I just love when it does, but I wouldn't mind if it surprise me continuing to the next target around 0.7527, and looking at the Gold, it just could. we'll see.
I would be busy tomorrow and on Friday so probably I won't be able to post, but it is to be expected that we will see a correction from this targets (immediate or from the next one).
Take care
ID

[idejan]

I see I didn't mentioned the EUR, well since I have posted in fxsurfer thread here is the link to that post(s)

First was on 30 Dec and next is todays followup. It turned into a nice safety call for those visiting my favorite thread and for those that used it for a trade it could yielded ~200 pips if they closed on lower targets and ~100 more for those that let it run to current levels. By the way for those that haven't been there, go now, my friend fxs provides his great real intraday calls which even for those not preferring intraday could prove most appropriate in ranging markets like we have now for some time in EUR. At least I get tempted catching a C here and there.

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showp...&postcount=762
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showp...&postcount=795

I'm almost certain it will go to the upper target (1.2203) which has a confluence of important longer term resistance at that level and 100% fib extension at 1.2196, before any correction down, although it touched the upper channel line with the current high at 1.2143
Watch 2085/65 fro a possible bounce up to next targets.
Below that 1.2050 and 1.1975/59 are the next possible targets down. I'll do better over the weekend and this down targets are produced with just a glimpse over the EUR charts so take it with reserve.

Take care
ID

[idejan]

A look on US Dollar index,
shows a possible continuation of USD weakness...
Followup on pairs later if needed, for now previous calls are doing well.
ID

[idejan]

Man, this was time consuming...

I wanted to see how it works, but it is definitely not worth the time, and I'm not even sure if I should post it...
OK, I've made a kind of a walk-trough analysis in a gif file.
It's about 5 minutes to watch, but don't worry, I won't do anything similar again

In general what I've posted in previous posts is still on, I expect a possible final leg of the corrections before a continuation against USD...

More over the weekend.
ID

[Santacruz]

I would like to disagree with you... All I can see - unfinished correction formations on all pairs... I anticipate EUR/USD to make new lows at the end of the month

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Santacruz

I would like to disagree with you... All I can see - unfinished correction formations on all pairs... I anticipate EUR/USD to make new lows at the end of the month

Hi Santa,

I'm not sure about the time frame you are talking about when you mention unfinished corrections, I'd like to hear more about your view on what it is based on.
Any way, JPY for one has done a nice reversal pattern (Impulsive structure down) from the top, and if it continues below 114, that will put more confidence in this reversal view, but/and will confirm for a min of 111.
Other USD pairs.., I can agree with you that European pairs could be in a minor correction, but as I have pointed in the prev post it is aiming above 1.24 to possibly even much higher above 1.27. Break above 1.19 was a first sign of a possible minor bottom in EURUSD and above 1.2050 strengthen this argument.
AUD is a pair I generally look at to get a picture on the overall USD strength but seems like it has bottomed at least a minor bottom if not intermediate. Considering that Gold has most probably a wave C down to follow (see few posts above) that could push AUD south, but I'll get more in detail latter.
CAD is something that at the moment I don't have a clear view of. Since it seems to me that the Crude is about to start a final C down of the ongoing correctional pattern, that could indicate a possible minor bottom in USDCAD, but I hope I'll be able to look at it in more detail over the weekend.
Anyway, all pairs were right on targets and just about to the last an more probable turning points. I've pointed that this targets levels are also a very possible turning points.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Tnx SonOfSoros
...
I had a nice call on AUDUSD just before the end of the year, and it got right to my target today (in a pip) and I just love when it does, but I wouldn't mind if it surprise me continuing to the next target around 0.7527, and looking at the Gold, it just could. we'll see.
...
ID

yes I love when it does.
bull's-eye. Right @ 0.7527
ID

[fxsurfer]

Dejan, that chart on post#156(?) was amazing ... I am impressed !!

It also looks like it was a lot of work ... I think we are on the same wave .. the only difference is I am very confident we are in a multi week if not month rise in eur/usd but you have your suspicions .... keep up the good analysis

Think North and look for fibs levels to buy again .. immediate target 1.2220 but we may be entering a consolidation/corrective wave .. I can;t post any charts or do any analysis until cms get back online, they have been down all day Friday!

Fxs

[idejan]

Tnx buddy,

Actually it is not that complicated as I thought it would be first place. The time only time consuming is preparing of the charts so they can overlay, to bad there's no fib tools in photoshop it would have made things easier.
I've done it just out of curiosity, and beside I've always had that problem to put the flow of the mental process on one single page.
this is just a single fragment of the whole analysis I usually do and things I consider, but putting it all together would require something else. A video perhaps. I have found a nice piece of software that enables you to record both your desktop activity and put a frame showing you (from a web cam) with audio.
Looks nice. Just perfect for tutorials and stuff like that.
Makes GIF's too. But photoshop is good enough for me.
Среќен Божиќ

ID

[Santacruz]

According to elliot theory there could be next kinds of correction moves...

3:3:5 or 5:3:5 or complex combinations that are (3:3:3) X n times connected by 3-waves wave...

Now take a look at first chart (Daily)

First ABC is 5:3:5 formation
next abc is also 5:3:5

I was betting that uptrend will start at 29 Novemberm BUT the wave (X) turned to be corrective also.... U can kill me but i'm not gonna believe that wave X is IMPULSE... because all the trends starts with impulse wave...

[Santacruz]

Now I'm gonna proove that current upward movement is not impulse you are looking for...

Take a look at second chart.... (I will attach it to this post also)

This movement from 2-5 Jan is Impulse 100% - wave 1 = wave 5 and wave 3 is extended...

If it was impulse for next uptrend then correction formation time after this impulse should be LESS then time take for impulse formation....

and they are equall as you can see and it's another vote for 5:3:5 scenario development...

Wave that started 1.7520 supposed to be 5-waves formation... and it really is... wave 5 is about to come out Friday-Monday...

Minimal requirements for this wave (must be at least 30% of the wave of the same degree) is already met...

So after all... If i'm wrong and what we see is impulse formation then price will no way drop below 1.7515 (more preciesly 1.7600 - 61% retracement of the currently developing wave)...

Let the market judge us

[fxsurfer]

Dejan ... now that you mention it ... Срећан Божић (Merry Christmas)

I have to go enjoy it with family ... back tomorrow to see how things closed on Friday

[Santacruz]

After all - I don't see any kind of new trend at EUR/USD AT ALL!

This rapid thrust of the market are 90% corrections... we all have lost lot of $$$ on them to bite on this again..