Market Direction

[pmha]

Hi interesting elliott wave analysis,(correct me if im wrong)

But why all the waves when pure and simple support and resistance shows the same and until these levels are broken none of us will no the direction.

USDCAD

Monthly
we have major support going back to the year 1991 at 1.1187 .
Resistance at 1.2763.

Weekly

Support at 1.1716
Resistance 1.2747

Daily

At support now
Resistance 1.2221

regards

[idejan]

Originally Posted by pmha

Hi interesting elliott wave analysis,(correct me if im wrong)

But why all the waves when pure and simple support and resistance shows the same and until these levels are broken none of us will no the direction.
...
regards

hi pmha,
most probably because it works for me same as s/r works for you.
Ew gives a direction and S/R levels. But then probably other TA gives that too. It is up to your personal preferences then, to decide what is best for you, but more improtant, what WORKS for you. Simply, something will work not just because it is working, but more because it gives you confidence about your view on the market. At the end of the day, it's not realy important how good some TA is, but how good one uses it, and how good it works for him/her (as with any other tool).
Regards
ID
PS. it gives direction in advance and then some s/r are just confirmation/invalidation.

[idejan]

Hi

I took a weekend from Friday to the near by beautiful lake of Ohrid, just came back and I'll do the analysis tomorrow, but from what I can see from the chart it would most probably be the end of this short upward move. Now the most probable levels are as in previous post and journal entries. I'll also mind the other possibility mentioned in, hm, I believe it was #5 post in this thread.
With the latest development, a break below 1.2207 is needed to indicate a possible move lower.
Tomorrow then.
Best to all
ID

[idejan]

A short update on CAD$ since there is a possibility of a change in intermediate trend.

Originally Posted by idejan

...
In my previous thread I've posed my view on CAD$, and also in my Journal.
My long term view still remains very bullish on CAD.
... after bottoming around 1.17 as I've targeted previously, would most probably have another bounce up to around 1.27, before a longer term downtrend down to below 1.0...

The ongoing consolidation (at the moment of the post) could most probably find resistance around 1.2036 but could also extend to 1.2080
Break below 1.1945 would suggest continuation down to at least 1.1860 and below to 1.1784/1.1717
A move above last week's high at 1.2142 would suggest CAD$ had bottomed and new correction toward 1.26/27 is in progress.
ID

While I was writing this the CAD fell down to 1.1925. So chances of a continuation down are now more certain.

[idejan]

I was very busy all day today and when I was back I was caught unguarded with that huge extension up on EURUSD chart. And just as I was preparing my comment on a market I stopped to see the news first .
A shocking terrible disaster in US. On top of that CNN broadcasted a sad anniversary reportage on a horrible tragedy in a school in Beslan, Russia, were hundreds of children were killed. Horrible. Being father of a five year boy child, I could not express how unimaginably horrifying this stories are to me. So many people dead in New Orleans and hundreds of thousands lost their homes, jobs. Terrifying. And then more then 900 dead in a Pilgrim stampede in Iraq mostly children and women.
Moments like this reminds me how precious life is.
I find it very inappropriate talking and analyzing market move caused by a tragedy.
A very sad day.
ID

[idejan]

Well impressive indeed.
Since we are on a kind of a juncture of a minor trend important however on the longer term development.
Below 1.2487/1.2525 reversal to 1.21/20 is the most probable scenario.
Break above 1.2525 will open the road to 1.26/27 levels which is also very possible. So I hold neutral bias to slightly bearish.
I'm trying short from here (@1.246) with stops just above 1.2525 but will move them to break even on proper development.
First short term support is around 1.2450/30 which is the first level to watch. If price bounce from this level above recent high then it's to 1.2525 to determine the near term direction. If it hold down to 1.21/20 if it breaks, to 1.26 and above.
In my thread - post #6 I have published the possibility of this kind of a scenario.
On the downside we are seeing the same previously resistance levels now support @ 1.2390/2370/2355
Breaking of 1.2370 will increase the probability of continuing down, and break below 1.2355 should confirm that.
As I was writing this, price fell to 1.2456 and it's now back to 1.2463. Break above 1.2465 will increase probabilities of continuing to at least 1.2487 to 1.2525 and possibly above.
Just while I'm writing something that could look like an impulsive move down is starting to unfold.
But it is far from the confirmation so the bias is still neutral to slightly bearish and I'll use this development to lower my stops to break even.
ID
it is about to hit fist support at 1.2450

[idejan]

My stops were hit at break even some two hours ago. It was set to go to 1.2525 and now I'm in @ 1.2519 where my limit sell order was placed. Now I believe we are about to see a reversal down.
But then, in situations like this an old saying somehow always comes back to me: if you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans.
ID

S @ 1.2457/60; 1.2390/83
Targets down as in previous posts and in Journal, and I will revise them after some Market development on my Charts.

[idejan]

Well I was not "in the Zone"
The worst thing you can do, is not listening to your own advices.
This last 7-10 days being very busy, I was not actually checking my analysis, but was only relying on Support resistance levels. So I was missing direction.
The main reason for that, and I'm not saying this to justify my self but to give you advice that you could use, is that I had an opportunity to sneak peak at the analysis of a service that is run from a great authority, and I was kind of influenced by their view. OK you would probably say that's OK, but it is not.
I had a clear view my self, and it proved to me many times that it is confidence in your own view that is most important.
I was not listening to my own advices. In my Journal from 17 Aug I wrote precisely what I expect and in other posts here in the thread I suspected a possibility (#6), but then in the days that followed I was distracted and I did not followed my own view. (I believe that one of the first lessons one should learn is about discipline).
Now I'm still out of the zone, since I didn't had much time to follow news last week, and as I have written somewhere here on MoneyTec, I find economic reports very good for timing if you know the general direction.

So what I'll write below, take it with reserve.
________
I'm still not convinced in my post #6 scenario, and it would be confirmed with a break above recent high @ 1.2588 in such case EUR will most probably travel to 1.2730 to 1.2780.
With all the latest development in US, where cracks are starting to show not only in the economy (my personal view on the US economy is very negative, and I personally believe that the only thing expanding in US is Credit), and bearing in mind that the first possibly positive US data will arrive mid September, makes this very possible scenario. It is most probable however that we will see a small minute correction to 1.2487-1.2426 first (current support @ 1.2455) before continuation up to 1.27 levels.

The recent High @ 1.2588 however qualifies for a minor top and any move below 1.2300/1.2290 would argue this. In such a case 1.22 (current 1.2193)level could be tested.

________
USDCAD
I'm sorry I'm not able to look more carefully on CAD at the moment. Most probable finish of this move down could be around 1.1765/45 but we could first see a correction to 1.1920/30. Break below 1.1860/50 would argue the move down to 1.17 levels and above 1.1980 would argue a possible minor bottom (recent low @ 1.1805)

Look on the Economic Calendar would give you a more clearer view on the direction. Katrina aftermath remains a primary concern for all so we would experience shifts in pessimism and optimism in the following days, but it is now clear that the consequences will be felt in the months to come.
ID