Market Direction

[Santacruz]

Alternative wave count shows possible impulse. Will clear up these days.

[Santacruz]

It's daily GBP/USD

[idejan]

I was not in town whole day so just a brief overview recap

EUR
1.2011/1986/1956/1930 BELOW 1870 to retest 1639 low

GBP
1.7497/7445/7357 below that to retest low

JPY
4 jan 2006

Originally Posted by idejan

Short follow-up on JPY (above chart post #146)

JPY now sitting right on the support line the chart 115.56 (price low @ 115.60) should be contained below 116.88<>117.12 to continue down on break of 115.56/20 SUP zone to 110.76/70 target.
Above the 117.20 is the first sign of a possible continuation up but will need to break above the RES area 117.50<>118.20 on the chart to confirm possible retest of the 121.38 High possibly above to new high.
ID

later same day

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY still into consolidation I am confident it will drop down to 111/110 ok I'm biased strongly toward downside but I'll watch closely 117.20/30 for any surprise. I'll leave mathematics on JPY calls to you ... (this is kind of a payout for close to a month of troubles hunting a possible top around 113 to around 115 but above that was not bad this top was right on target).
Trader01 never revealed the secret about top pickers

6 jan 2006

Originally Posted by idejan

...Any way JPY for one has done a nice reversal pattern (Impulsive structure down) the top if it continues below 114 that will put more confidence in this reversal view but/ will confirm for a min of 111.

Broke below 114 yesterday (to 113.77) but did not closed below. Today low right @ support 114.10 as I said the day before I'd like to see a break below 114 to confirm reversal pattern.
I'm still confident of seeing min of 112.30 lower to 110.73/65 before any correction of the respective degree.
Price should be contained below 115 to 115.50 a break above 116<>116.50 would first indication against this scenario.

USDX
if Dollar index manages above 90 that will be a goo indication previous view is wrong. However I'm still confident about the previous view.

GOLD rallied to a new high but AUD didn't followed.

Now AUD is sitting right on three support lines on weekly Daily.
On the up side targets are previous high above that to 0.7605<>7620
below the 0.7470 target is 0.7425<>7400

CAD
could be good for a long current levels to 1.188 above that to 1.206. But it needs a break first above 1.1705 then 1.1745 (it held on 4 attempts over this past two weeks) to confirm targets. It is a risky one.
Below recent low 1.1621 but preferably below 1.1610 is the reversal down to 1.145 to 1.1425

ID

[charlies]

Originally Posted by idejan

I was not in town whole day so just a brief overview recap

EUR
1.2011/1986/1956/1930 BELOW 1870 to retest 1639 low

GBP
1.7497/7445/7357 below that to retest low

ID

IDEJAN Thanks for your EW analysis I have been following you FXsurfer for some time now. The animated gif was great but I can underst why you will only do one.

Can you clarify what you mean above?

I read it as if GBP is in a wave 2 or B (as per previous chart) it should find support & reverse at 1.7497 (38% fib)/7445 (support)/7357 (62% fib). If it falls below 1.7357 you assume that the wave 2 or B will retrace 100% of wave 1?

Is that correct?
Thanks

[idejan]

Originally Posted by charlies

IDEJAN Thanks for your EW analysis I have been following you FXsurfer for some time now. The animated gif was great but I can underst why you will only do one.

Can you clarify what you mean above?

I read it as if GBP is in a wave 2 or B (as per previous chart) it should find support & reverse at 1.7497 (38% fib)/7445 (support)/7357 (62% fib). If it falls below 1.7357 you assume that the wave 2 or B will retrace 100% of wave 1?

Is that correct?
Thanks

Hi charlies
you read it well. I'd only add that if it falls below 1.7357 then one other scenario jumps in play that is a finished 3w Flat the recent fall could then become a start of a possible ZZ down continuation of the previous down trend.
Now what I can see at the moment I'd say that if lower than the most probable support reversal up could be 7475 to 7441. Break above 1.7615 first 1.764 after could be a good sign of a possible continuation up break above the top would confirm.
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi charlies
you read it well. I'd only add that if it falls below 1.7357 then one other scenario jumps in play that is a finished 3w Flat the recent fall could then become a start of a possible ZZ down continuation of the previous down trend.
Now what I can see at the moment I'd say that if lower than the most probable support reversal up could be 7475 to 7441. Break above 1.7615 first 1.764 after could be a good sign of a possible continuation up break above the top would confirm.
ID

that bold text should say "jumps in play too"
meaning it could be a possibility.

[charlies]

[quote=idejan]Break above 1.7615 first 1.764 after could be a good sign of a possible continuation up break above the top would confirm./[quote]

idejan Thanks for your help

How did you calculate 1.7615 & 1.764 - are they based on previous support & resistance or it passing back up through the fibs?

We seem to have reversed off 1.7521 have 5 minor waves up to 1.7669 (however the 5th is longer than the 3rd there is some overlap between waves 1 & 4 - does this affect your interpretation - could it be 1-2-1-2 instead?).

If a minor 5 waves up I assume that you would look to enter long near the bottom of wave 2 - likely around 7590-7615

[Santacruz]

I think dollar lost his momentum... I don't see nothing elliottical yet but p GBP/USD failed to hold below 61% the downside move...

Now I suppose we are in EURO year