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[idejan]

Hi all,
As I said some post ago the answer on the near term USD direction, would probably come this week. Previous week, did not gave a clear answer to the question of direction but the bias is clearly more toward US dollar side.

EUR
Break below 1.1873 and below 1.1866 would most certainly mean a min of 1.1755/35 but in such case, trading in the next months and next year will probably continue down toward 1.1637 and most probably to area of 1.1316<>1.1183<>1.1006. It could however extend further down to 1.0380<>1.0010 but less probably.

If however 1.1900/1864 area holds, break above 1.2125 could be indication of a reversal, but only a break above first 1.2160 and after the break of 1.2340/50 will confirm upward minor trend to at least 1.27

In any of this case scenarios, the visit to 1.2340/50 area first, is still very probable. Of course break below 1864 will negate that.

JPY
Not much to say deferent from previous posts.
There's a strong resistance just below 116 (115.95/80) and JPY will now first, most probably retrace to 113.4 to 112.55 zone and if then breaks above the 116 then it will target 120-124 area. If however this recent high is a top then we will see JPY trading toward 107 area.

CAD
Near term heading to 1.1990 and 1.2170. Mid term to around 1.25
Still need a clear above 1.2200 to confirm.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi all,
As I said some post ago the answer on the near term USD direction, would probably come this week. Previous week, did not gave a clear answer to the question of direction but the bias is clearly more toward US dollar side.

EUR
Break below 1.1873 and below 1.1866 would most certainly mean a min of 1.1755/35 but in such case, trading in the next months and next year will probably continue down toward 1.1637 and most probably to area of 1.1316<>1.1183<>1.1006. It could however extend further down to 1.0380<>1.0010 but less probably.

If however 1.1900/1864 area holds, break above 1.2125 could be indication of a reversal, but only a break above first 1.2160 and after the break of 1.2340/50 will confirm upward minor trend to at least 1.27

In any of this case scenarios, the visit to 1.2340/50 area first, is still very probable. Of course break below 1864 will negate that.

Hi just short update on EUR.
It's target up is 1.2174/80 and above this will open to at least 1.2251/59 but more probably to around 1.2300/14, and possibly little above to 1.2364/89
However the most probable is that it will meet the first target, consolidate in the range between 2174 and 2040, before sets up to the above targets around 1.23 (and in such case probably higher, but we shall wait the market to develop clues)
ID

[idejan]

EUR

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi just short update on EUR.
It's target up is 1.2174/80 and above this will open to at least 1.2251/59 but more probably to around 1.2300/14, and possibly little above to 1.2364/89
However the most probable is that it will meet the first target, consolidate in the range between 2174 and 2040, before sets up to the above targets around 1.23 (and in such case probably higher, but we shall wait the market to develop clues)
ID

BIAS: Mildly bullish
Looking on the Daily chart, EUR is exactly at the point where it is difficult to clearly determine the direction it will take from here. The recent high fits right for an end of the correction of the drop from 2 September 1.2589 to 4 October 1.1900 low, but it has an equal fit for a continuation to at least 1.2315 after a consolidation at present levels.
Looking closer on Hourly charts it's clear that intraday we could probably see a small correction to 1.2096/2110/2125 levels before a decline to 1.2023 which looks like a possible end of this consolidation before the next move up continues to min of 1.2318 but more probably to 1.2326/52/65 and then to 1.27-1.31 area. This is my preferred view. Confidence Medium to High.
However break of 1.2023 first and then 1.1980/1940/1900 will confirm strong Dollar bullish bias and will lead to much deeper price levels.

JPY
BIAS: Neutral
Intraday it is probable that JPY will end up to 115.74/78 or 115.92/97 before it continues down to around 114.5 to 113.5 and then to 112.40/00
However, until JPY trades above 110.20 it is very probable that it could continue up to 120-124 area. Breaking below this level, would most certainly mean continuation down toward 107 and possibly lower.

[stojce]

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Hello idejan my Friend,
Great Analysis...keep up.

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[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

EUR

BIAS: Mildly bullish
...intraday we could probably see a small correction to 1.2096/2110/2125 levels before a decline to 1.2023 which looks like a possible end of this consolidation before the next move up continues to min of 1.2318 but more probably to 1.2326/52/65 and then to 1.27-1.31 area. This is my preferred view. Confidence Medium to High.
However break of 1.2023 first and then 1.1980/1940/1900 will confirm strong Dollar bullish bias and will lead to much deeper price levels.

JPY
BIAS: Neutral
...until JPY trades above 110.20 it is very probable that it could continue up to 120-124 area. Breaking below this level, would most certainly mean continuation down toward 107 and possibly lower.

Tnx stojce my friend.
EUR fell below 1.2023 thus increasing the chances of at least testing 1.1900/1986 area once more. Break below would most certainly lead to a min of 1.1755/35 but in such case, trading in the next months and next year will probably continue down toward 1.1637 and most probably to area of 1.1316<>1.1183<>1.1006. It could however extend further down to 1.0380<>1.0010 but less probably.
However, it still looks like we are going up first...to 1.27-1.31 area.

Important intraday support is at 1.1940/30 and recent low 1.1868

JPY crawls steadily up. A possible reverse or at least a correction around 116.75/95. However as I've posted earlier above 116 chances of JPY heading toward 120-124 area increased significantly.

CAD
It is most certainly heading toward min of 1.2135/57 and breaking above that level would most probably open door for 1.23-1.25
Breaking below 1.1585 would confirm continuation of the larger term downtrend which will lead to below 1.00

ID

[ronnimar]

regarding cad. how can u be so certain ?

[idejan]

Originally Posted by ronnimar

regarding cad. how can u be so certain ?

Hi ronnimar,

My views are mainly based on EW analysis, but I use other TA tools, as well as some fundamentals.
Well although I'm extremely bullish on CAD, as can be seen in my posts, I believe that USDCAD is in a corrective Flat wave II of the wave (III) down.
I also consider Crude Oil to be in a minor to intermediate correctional phase before possible move up by the end of the year or Q1 2006. Since CAD is strongly correlated with Oil, my view on Oil supports my view on CAD.
The fall from May 2005 is strong and could be wave III of a (III)rd, but it has to many overlapping and irregular or running B's, so my preferred view for now is that it is a ZZ wave B which ended at 1.1585 and we are in a wave C which would finish II larger degree wave around 1.23-25
However, even if this scenario is not the case I believe that 1.2135/57 is the minimum consolidation before any continuation below 1.1585

Whats your view and comments please?
ID

[PapaiNoel]

I started looking your recommendations today, hopefully you will keep posting it here so we can have more information ....good lucky to all the traders out there!

[Trader01]

Idejan,



If you are R.N. Elliott's guru, please buy me 100K Euros for Christmas.

If this is OK with you, you may also call up Robert Prechter and straighten him out.

We would be in a whole heap of trouble if medical doctors were similar to Elliottwave practitioners; the patient would get a heart attack and perish just from counting all the differing opinions.

At an accident scene on a main road in Los Angeles, after a meeting of 7 Elliottwave enthusiasts, the police were dumbfounded to hear 7 different versions of the accident; they decided to believe the stories of a drunken bum, a taxi driver and a pedestrian, all 3 non-Elliott types -- simply because their descriptions matched.

Nevertheless, I like your style of EW analysis; you do thorough work and I have voted for you; all this notwithstanding the fact that mine and yours are almost diametrically opposite, hehehe

Keep it up and all the best to you.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by PapaiNoel

I started looking your recommendations today, hopefully you will keep posting it here so we can have more information ....good lucky to all the traders out there!

Tnx Noel,
I've posted somewhere that I'm not posting buy/sell recommendations or a trading strategy, but just my view on the market direction on important long, medium and occasionally short terms swing levels. I'm glad if my view helps somebody and if you can use it with your trading strategy.
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He he he, Tnx Trader01,
EW guru!? No no no, please... I've noticed those stars..., I just hope their glittering won't blind me. That could seriously affect my analysis.
Learning self discipline and being objective about my calls, it's what this posts are helping me mostly. If it helps somebody in any way, even if somebody learns that it does not pay to follow others views, thats a bonus .

About the €100K, No problem, just a sec... (excellent joke here: http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showp...1&postcount=12)
I like the Los Angeles joke , quite true about Elliotticians too.
But then generally in life, even things that seems that can be seen very and only "objectively" are seen deferent, depending on the perspective, at least perspective is the most common you will hear, but it seems that bias plays it's own role here too... I remember seeing some BBC science documentary long time ago, and I was amazed to learn that we actually see more with our brain than with our eyes, since as soon as we register something with our eyes, more than 60% (I believe it was 60% but maybe more) of the picture is then made up by our brain... So, no strange we all see differently . It helped me understand something doctor said to me about eyes being the "laziest" human organ when he prescribed me lower diopter then the actual diagnosed which was low anyhow so I decided not to help my eyes get even more lazier.
-------
What can I say, I'm fascinated by social phenomenas and new sciences, although I can't say EW or Prechter's Socionomics are science, or at least not yet (I've ordered the Socionomics I'll tell you later although I already disagree with one of the fundamentals of the theory).

I can only tell you that what got me more in EW was a single incident, when a friend of mine call me 11pm with: listen I plan to invest 30,000... (average Macedonian monthly wage is 200-300 EUR) in one Macedonian Company which shares were up and almost tripled. I gave him my opinion that time, that I would not enter in his place, even that I do not follow Macedonian stocks and that was the first time I took a look at, which prove to be a good call but that's not the point. The point was that just of curiosity I've very shortly analyzed the stock (hi plan was to buy early morning, since he had an "insider tip") and predicted it is a top and it will fall from 5998 to 3802. It fell to 3800. It happen that I know a guy who works at Macedonian Stock Exchange and I've ask him about Fibonacci, EW and other TA. I did not conducted more research, but it happens that if not nobody than just a few guys trading Macedonian Stocks are using TA. So it convinced me that it is not like everybody's watching fib levels and counting waves, influencing market price in that way. Whatsoever, MSE has a very low turnover, which is quite opposite of the first condition to have clear EWs and again there are clear recognizable patterns. (see charts)

My personal belief is that using any tool requires skills and practice, and depending how good one is in that, could become a master in his craft. Using tools beyond mastery is called art. And is not the tool that makes neither the mastery nor the Art . Tools are just that: tools. They don't have neither skill nor artistry.
Trading like any other business requires knowledge, dedication, hard work. There are shortcuts of course, having lot of money and let others do the job for you.
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Short Market Update
Market is stuck in low ranges.
I'm still not convinced with recent dollar strength across the board, and I'm even more convinced to the 1.23 EURUSD level min. But it seems that we could not get the answer on further mid to long term direction anytime soon.
If recent low at 1.1968 holds it could be some indication for a possible uptrend, break above 1.2130/50 would confirm at least 1.23 level but only above this level is confirmation of a minor bottom and possibility up to at least 1.2680/2730 From here we will have EUR down to min of 1.17 but more probably much lower.
This however is not my preferred view anymore, since it means a prolonged sideways trading and a longer wave II. I'm starting to think of a possible strong selling around 1.23 which will push EURUSD to at least 1.1755/30 or below which will end this wave II correction sooner. I'm still just thinking of this possibility and I'm waiting for clues, but it starting to look like more possible scenario.

Break of the recent low @ 1.1968 could be a serious indication of continuation down toward 1.17 area, although only the break of 1.1900/1867 would confirm that. Later the brake, stronger and deeper down it would be.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

...it seems that we could not get the answer on further mid to long term direction anytime soon.
If recent low at 1.1968 holds it could be some indication for a possible uptrend, break above 1.2130/50 would confirm at least 1.23 level but only above this level is confirmation of a minor bottom and possibility up to at least 1.2680/2730 From here we will have EUR down to min of 1.17 but more probably much lower.
This however is not my preferred view anymore, since it means a prolonged sideways trading and a longer wave II. I'm starting to think of a possible strong selling around 1.23 which will push EURUSD to at least 1.1755/30 or below which will end this wave II correction sooner. I'm still just thinking of this possibility and I'm waiting for clues, but it starting to look like more possible scenario.

Break of the recent low @ 1.1968 could be a serious indication of continuation down toward 1.17 area, although only the break of 1.1900/1867 would confirm that. Later the brake, stronger and deeper down it would be.
ID

Answer to be delivered earlier. 1.1900/1867 was providing very strong support for the pair, but as I wrote many times before, only below 1.17 will be the confirmation of a much deeper EURUSD correction or even a possible reversal of the EUR bull trend.
Break below 1.17 would definitely confirm dollar strength and would most probably mean min. 1.1490/70 but could go to 1.1295/1180 and even lower to 1.07/06
If 1.1800 breaks I expect some strong support around 1.1755 (1.1767/55/39)

JPY
Confirms my suspicion posted as a probability, early in October in ronnimars jpy? thread, about 120-124 as possible target area to end this very strong correction. 122.35 being the most probable. Some retrace to 117.80/50 to as low as 116.10, is not ruled out.
However, I would not ruleout possible reversal at any level now.

CAD
As in previous posts...
and just a brief note: short term, as long as the 1.1714 level holds, we will most probably get to min. of 1.1907 but more probably to 1.1940/60 or higher 1.2027/31 area and 1.213 area.
Possible bounce up from 1.1805/15

Interesting is that GBPUSD is still trading above the july low @ 1.7270, and above the support trendline now around 1.7426, therefor not confirmed the continuation of downtrend yet. (EURUSD and GBPUSD are highly correlated, 98%)

ID

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Answer to be delivered earlier. 1.1900/1867 was providing very strong support for the pair, but as I wrote many times before, only below 1.17 will be the confirmation of a much deeper EURUSD correction or even a possible reversal of the EUR bull trend.
Break below 1.17 would definitely confirm dollar strength and would most probably mean min. 1.1490/70 but could go to 1.1295/1180 and even lower to 1.07/06
If 1.1800 breaks I expect some strong support around 1.1755 (1.1767/55/39)

ID

Master, can't seem to find 1.17 as any significant level -- not a 38.2%, not a core support level, but it could be an intermediate-term support showing on the weekly. Is this what you mean or is it some profound Elliott level?

By the way, just looking only at Price and no Indicators whatsoever and referring to Dow Theory, a Euro BEAR has already been signalled at Friday's 1811 close -- this being lower than the 1817 close of May 13, 2004, the bottom of the previous significant retracement.

Rallies can come and go, but I do believe that Price has finally signalled a BEAR.

And, despite all the bad press that Indicators have received, I called the turn in trend based purely on MACD (weekly) back in Nov-Dec 2004.

Remains to be seen if I'm right; but its been beautiful for me as I live in SE Asia and the strong $ is enhancing my pleasure, hehehehe ..

Looking forward to basking in your wisdom.

[idejan]

Hi Trader01

Yes it is based on EW view, and my suspicion that there could be some significant stops of very serious money just below 1.17 which last defense would be above 1.17.
There are 2 fib lines (one intermediate and one minor) and the may 2004 low intermediate support.
Even when I was slightly bullish on EUR, I've always tried to indicate that below first 1.2 and then 1.19 would be serious indication of a possible continuation much deeper.
First indication came mid September, and second week in October traded well below in Bear territory.
So yes I agree with you of a possible bear signal, but would feel more comfortable below 1.17
I also expect possible Crude Oil up to 64-65 and more in the weeks to come (not a continuation up yet probably) and possible correction up (or continuation up) in Gold too.
On the other hand, it is clear that even that core inflation is low and will stay below 2.5%, Greenspan seem to be inclined to finish his term with rate hikes, so another 2 mini rate hikes are most probable (to 4.5%). Market on the other hand seems to expect target rate to be at least 5% by middle of 2006... This week Int. Trade data and how market will react could give some indication.
It is now to be seen how much rate differentials are factored in the price already, since they seem to be the main driver, and how long cyclical factors will precede over structural.
But if you are looking for a Master, Guru... you won't find it here ... you should probably look around moneytec, I believe there are at least few.
However I highly and sincerely appreciate your analysis and criticism, and they are both welcome. Others are welcome too.
ID

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi Trader01

Yes it is based on EW view, and my suspicion that there could be some significant stops of very serious money just below 1.17 which last defense would be above 1.17.
There are 2 fib lines (one intermediate and one minor) and the may 2004 low intermediate support.
Even when I was slightly bullish on EUR, I've always tried to indicate that below first 1.2 and then 1.19 would be serious indication of a possible continuation much deeper.
First indication came mid September, and second week in October traded well below in Bear territory.
So yes I agree with you of a possible bear signal, but would feel more comfortable below 1.17
I also expect possible Crude Oil up to 64-65 and more in the weeks to come (not a continuation up yet probably) and possible correction up (or continuation up) in Gold too.
On the other hand, it is clear that even that core inflation is low and will stay below 2.5%, Greenspan seem to be inclined to finish his term with rate hikes, so another 2 mini rate hikes are most probable (to 4.5%). Market on the other hand seems to expect target rate to be at least 5% by middle of 2006... This week Int. Trade data and how market will react could give some indication.
It is now to be seen how much rate differentials are factored in the price already, since they seem to be the main driver, and how long cyclical factors will precede over structural.
But if you are looking for a Master, Guru... you won't find it here ... you should probably look around moneytec, I believe there are at least few.
However I highly and sincerely appreciate your analysis and criticism, and they are both welcome. Others are welcome too.
ID

Idejan,

A bit of banter in this graveyard called Moneytec -- that's what you'll get from me, but just to make sure for the future that you do NOT mistake my banter for personal criticism, let me state now that your EW analysis is the best I've seen -- it surpasses the perfectly wrong anal-ysis from Elliottwave International and the many voodoo EW practitioners who have been successfuly ensnaring gullible herbivores with their bombastic claims of 7,500% returns per second, etc.

Me looking for a master? No chief, I ride alone, but am not blind to talent when I come across it.

Don't let anyone convince you otherwise.

[Trader01]

Idejan,

The 1.17 level @ the 38.2% fib -- OK, that's clear.

But have you noticed the powerful support structure between the 2 fib levels, 38.2 and 50%? ...... sits solidly @ 1461.

The lack of historical data on Euro makes discerning this structure difficult, but I found ProRealTime's european union currency chart which goes back 25 years -- on this chart then, it is clear that the dominant support structure is at 1461.

Also, one final point; EW looks at lows, but for confirming the BEAR, we need to look at the close -- and we DO have a lower one than the 1817 May 13th close.