Market Direction

[idejan]

USDCAD
needs to break above 1.1930 to confirm larger corection is in progress.
Res @ 1.1870/1930/2020
above 1.1930 increases probability for 1.2230/50 and to 1.25/26

below 1.1820 free fall continues to probably 1.15 and 1.13
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JPY
in downtrend but needs to break below 110.20 to head to
109.98/108.5/107 levels

on the other side break above res @110.9 to invalidate view.
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GBPUSD
down to 1.8005/1.7995 before possible reversal up.
on the above side res @ 1.8250/8290 and 1.8365
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ID

[idejan]

Latest development reinforced possibility of my previous view about 1.2068/47 and even more for the next level down @ 1.1996
EUR is now siting at important fib @ 1.2102 (price) and just between two important time fibs (100% time extension of 12 Aug high on 18 sept and fib time sequence on 20 sept.) indicating possibility of minor low, but just with a break above 1.2240 and then 1.2270/2300 could indicate such low and with that a possible reversal.
Looking at the charts and the price pattern, I still hold my view of this move down ending at least @ 1.2068/47 and now I'm ready to consider even little lower to 1.1996.
Tomorrow news includes two important data releases Housing starts and FOMC announcement, with housing starts being the important one, since I believe that FOMC expected .25 points hike is already tailored in the price.
Bad housing data could prove critical for a strong reversal and that could be boosted more with even slight change in FED rhetoric suggesting possible end or pause of rate hike.
On the other hand we have the German election results. Market tends to see this as not very good for the EUR but this was already tailored in the market price with this latest move down, so I would not expect any significant pressure on the EUR from that side, even that there is a possibility which derives from the possible days (or weeks) of political horse-trading before any clear outcome.
By the end of this week EIA Petroleum Status Report
Jobless Claims and Leading Indicators data are to be released, all dollar negative in my opinion. Next week data release also does not bring anything promising for the dollar (my humble opinion). Oil on the other hand could give some ease on the dollar short term too if it proves to be in a larger correction before a continuation up.
But as I have stated much earlier in my Journal mid September will see some dollar positive sentiment shift (short term) and with the latest development, even breaks below 1.19 are possible, but not very likely.
I believe shortly after this strong reversal will occur since the cracks will start showing visible bear eyes.
However one must not include his own expectation and must have a clear view at all times.
So,

the levels to watch:
above
1.2150/80
1.2210
as possible corrections and as a first indication of possible reversal
and
1.2230 to 1.2270 as a possible reversal sign
1.2530 will confirm reversal to 1.26/27/31 levels

on the downside
there is a longer term (weekly chart) support now around 1.2059
1.1997 important fib
1.1864 July low (2005 low)
1.175 April 2004 low

ID

while writing this EURUSD reached 1.2147 closing to 1.2151 level

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

USDCAD
needs to break above 1.1930 to confirm larger corection is in progress.
Res @ 1.1870/1930/2020
above 1.1930 increases probability for 1.2230/50 and to 1.25/26

below 1.1820 free fall continues to probably 1.15 and 1.13
-----------
JPY
in downtrend but needs to break below 110.20 to head to
109.98/108.5/107 levels

on the other side break above res @110.9 to invalidate view.
-----------
GBPUSD
down to 1.8005/1.7995 before possible reversal up.
on the above side res @ 1.8250/8290 and 1.8365
-----------
ID

USDCAD
Found res @ 1.1894 to dip @ 1.1778
above 1.1820/50 and 1.1910 to confirm possible uptrend (on all time frames CAD is still in downtrend)
break of 1.1786 trend line first and then the recent low @ 1.1719 to indicate possible continuation of the downtrend to as low as 1.15/13
-------------
JPY
On small time frames JPY is probably heading to 111.00/110.95/80
Brak below 110.50 is the first indication of that and occured while I was rechecking my analysis. It still has room to finish up @ 111.70/80 and probably 112.25/50 before continuing down.
support @ 111.00 / 110.80 / 110.50 / 110.30
first confirmation of minor down trend is break of first 110.00 and then 108.60
to 107.00 targets

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

USDCAD
Found res @ 1.1894 to dip @ 1.1778
above 1.1820/50 and 1.1910 to confirm possible uptrend (on all time frames CAD is still in downtrend)
break of 1.1786 trend line first and then the recent low @ 1.1719 to indicate possible continuation of the downtrend to as low as 1.15/13
-------------
JPY
On small time frames JPY is probably heading to 111.00/110.95/80
Break below 110.50 is the first indication of that and occurred while I was rechecking my analysis. It still has room to finish up @ 111.70/80 and probably 112.25/50 before continuing down.
support @ 111.00 / 110.80 / 110.50 / 110.30
first confirmation of minor down trend is break of first 110.00 and then 108.60
to 107.00 targets

ID

CAD rallied strong against dollar. It broke down to new low and it's approaching to Nov 1991 low @ 1.1190 with steady pace.
I must admit that even I was open to possibility, as I mentioned above that on all time frames CAD was in healthy downtrend, I was not anticipating such a strong fall. Especially with dollar being "strong" across boards this days. It fell down right of that trend line @ 1.1786 to 1.1658 and looking at the chart it seem to me that it is heading for 1.15 and probably even lower (but less likely).
Possible levels down are:
1.1635
1.1515/05
1.1308

On the other side correction to 1.1700 to 1.1740 is possible and above 1.1760/80 will indicate possible bottom.
-----------
JPY
Most probably toped @111.67 but still needs to break below 110.20 to signal such possibility. Breaking above 111.67 would signal this move up to finish @ 111.70/80 and probably 112.25/50 before continuing down.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

the levels to watch:
above
1.2150/80
1.2210
as possible corrections and as a first indication of possible reversal
and
1.2230 to 1.2270 as a possible reversal sign
1.2530 will confirm reversal to 1.26/27/31 levels

on the downside
there is a longer term (weekly chart) support now around 1.2059
1.1997 important fib
1.1864 July low (2005 low)
1.175 April 2004 low

ID

while writing this EURUSD reached 1.2147 closing to 1.2151 level

Originally Posted by idejan

CAD
Possible levels down are:
1.1635
1.1515/05
1.1308

On the other side correction to 1.1700 to 1.1740 is possible and above 1.1760/80 will indicate possible bottom.
-----------
JPY
Most probably toped @111.67 but still needs to break below 110.20 to signal such possibility. Breaking above 111.67 would signal this move up to finish @ 111.70/80 and probably 112.25/50 before continuing down.

ID

EUR correction was within mentioned levels to 1.2180
Development since my last post could indicate that we will most probably have a limited spike down before a strong reversal.

CAD
I'll add only one level to previously posted @ 1.1560/65

JPY
Would most probably go to upper levels once again before possible reversal down. (111.80 to 112.25/50)

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

CAD
I'll add only one level to previously posted @ 1.1560/65

ID

1.1700 gave strong resistance.
Now first resistance on the intraday charts is 1.1680/90
On the 1H first resistance above 1.168 is around 1.1730/50 and 1.1770/80 which is the first to indicate ease of the downward pressure. But just above 1.18 first then 1.19 above 1.2200/50 and will confirm that larger consolidation corection to 1.25/27 is in progress.
A possible divergence is building on the 1H chart but we still need a move above mentioned res, and until then there is still possiblility of new lows below 1.16
ID

[idejan]

I've been busy all day today didn't had opportunity to post.
Another hurricane on the horizon Rita is now category 5 but is expected to lose on strength approaching coast to category 3 and less.
But what are the technicals saying.

Originally Posted by idejan

...
Development since my last post could indicate that we will most probably have a limited spike down before a strong reversal.
ID

EUR heading to 1.2270 and more probably 1.2305/10/35 before any correction down.
Latest development reinforced my view of a probable end of minor wave B and possible development of a third minor wave C going to 1.26/27 but possibly 1.31
----
CAD

Originally Posted by idejan

On the 1H first resistance above 1.168 is around 1.1730/50 and 1.1770/80 which is the first to indicate ease of the downward pressure. But just above 1.18 first then 1.19 above 1.2200/50 and will confirm that larger consolidation correction to 1.25/27 is in progress.
A possible divergence is building on the 1H chart but we still need a move above mentioned res, and until then there is still possibility of new lows below 1.16
ID

Very choppy action, driven most probably by the uncertainty about possible damages by hurricane Rita (now being category 5 hurricane) so view remains the same with small modifications to resistance levels now being around 1.1720/60/80
I'll redo my analysis tomorrow
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JPY

Originally Posted by idejan

Would most probably go to upper levels once again before possible reversal down. (111.80 to 112.25/50)
ID

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
On small time frames JPY is probably heading to 111.00/110.95/80
Break below 110.50 is the first indication of that and occurred while I was rechecking my analysis. It still has room to finish up @ 111.70/80 and probably 112.25/50 before continuing down.
support @ 111.00 / 110.80 / 110.50 / 110.30
first confirmation of minor down trend is break of first 110.00 and then 108.60 to 107.00 targets
ID

USDJPY sell off little below projected 112.25/50 resistance @ 112.05
A firm break below 111 is most likely to occur in today Asian session but not before a most probable correction to 111.37/64
support @ 111.00 / 110.80 / 110.50 / 110.30

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

...
Another hurricane on the horizon Rita is now category 5 but is expected to lose on strength approaching coast to category 3 and less.
...

EUR heading to 1.2270 and more probably 1.2305/10/35 before any correction down.
Latest development reinforced my view of a probable end of minor wave B and possible development of a third minor wave C going to 1.26/27 but possibly 1.31
----
CAD

Very choppy action, driven most probably by the uncertainty about possible damages by hurricane Rita (now being category 5 hurricane) so view remains the same with small modifications to resistance levels now being around 1.1720/60/80
I'll redo my analysis tomorrow
----------
JPY

USDJPY sell off little below projected 112.25/50 resistance @ 112.05
A firm break below 111 is most likely to occur in today Asian session but not before a most probable correction to 111.37/64
support @ 111.00 / 110.80 / 110.50 / 110.30

ID

I have my indicator in sell dollar signal on all USD based pairs charts, but... triangles on the charts are telling me that market waits for something.
I would watch for possible surprises coming from Rita.
I've posted earlier, that it could be expected that by the time it reaches the coast, Rita could be degraded to category 3 and lower to even tropical storm.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...tic&storm=Rita

So watch out for sudden shifts. That could already be seen in CAD performance. CAD fell sharply after Rita was downgraded from category 5 to category 4.
I'm expecting new dollar highs before any declines.
However it will most probably be a very limited move with possible strong reversal. All eyes are on Rita.

ID