Market Direction

[idejan]

CAD broke first resistance and is now around 1.1760 where the second resistance is (1.1760/90) which if breaks opens way to 1.1840/50. Above that level is the first indication of a new minor trend up to 1.25/27 target area. But a serious confirmation should came only above 1.2200/2250

On a daily chart @ the moment, resistance is around
1.1820/25
1.2000
1.2110/50
1.2200/50
------------

EUR heading down as expected, but let see if this will be limited to 1.2068/47 (was hit just while writing this)
or will extend to lower 1.1995 or lower to test July low @ 1.1864
It is obviously that there is a strong US$ bias but watch for sudden shift in the sentiment.
Any break above 1.2170/80 could be indication of a change in sentiment.
------
JPY
Although it is now obvious it is heading to 112 again, I would not bet on a move above previously mentioned targets of 112.25 to 112.50
The next move down would be to 110.5 area before continuing down to 107 and below.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

CAD broke first resistance and is now around 1.1760 where the second resistance is (1.1760/90) which if breaks opens way to 1.1840/50. Above that level is the first indication of a new minor trend up to 1.25/27 target area. But a serious confirmation should came only above 1.2200/2250

On a daily chart @ the moment, resistance is around
1.1820/25
1.2000
1.2110/50
1.2200/50
ID

Possible small retracement to 1.1750/30 before continuing up to first 1.1820 to 1.19 to 1.2

Originally Posted by idejan

EUR heading down as expected, but let see if this will be limited to 1.2068/47 (was hit just while writing this)
or will extend to lower 1.1995 or lower to test July low @ 1.1864
It is obviously that there is a strong US$ bias but watch for sudden shift in the sentiment.
Any break above 1.2170/80 could be indication of a change in sentiment.
ID

Broke below my targets. Next targets down are 1.1916/06 to 1.1864
Below that we can see 1.1735 and below that the door is open for as low as 1.09
I still hold my previous view, and I expect this drop to bottom soon (if not already) and strong move up to follow to min 1.27 but probably to 1.31

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
Although it is now obvious it is heading to 112 again, I would not bet on a move above previously mentioned targets of 112.25 to 112.50
The next move down would be to 110.5 area before continuing down to 107 and below.
ID

Well my bet lose.
Made a high @ 113.50 and looks like could do another one.
Sup: 112.70 / 112.30 / 112.00 and 111.00 / 110.50 / 109.20/50
It will top soon if not already and then will be the right time to step in for a long ride down to 107-105

ID

[idejan]

CAD$

Originally Posted by idejan

Possible small retracement to 1.1750/30 before continuing up to first 1.1820 to 1.19 to 1.2

It could prove that I should revert to my previously held view (Charting and TA - My Elliott Waves thread)
I'm now neutral and will wait to see how it will resolve.

EUR

Originally Posted by idejan

Broke below my targets. Next targets down are 1.1916/06 to 1.1864
Below that we can see 1.1735 and below that the door is open for as low as 1.09
I still hold my previous view, and I expect this drop to bottom soon (if not already) and strong move up to follow to min 1.27 but probably to 1.31

Continuation below 1.19 and below 1.1864 could reinforce the USD bullish sentiment and could easily push dollar to 1.17 levels, but I still hold my view that we are on a juncture to move up to 1.27 to 1.31

JPY

Originally Posted by idejan

Well my bet lose.
Made a high @ 113.50 and looks like could do another one.
Sup: 112.70 / 112.30 / 112.00 and 111.00 / 110.50 / 109.20/50
It will top soon if not already and then will be the right time to step in for a long ride down to 107-105

Much higher than expected but I still hold my view about being on a juncture to move down to at least 107.
Still would like to see 111 and preferably 110 down to confirm.
On the other hand, if I'm wrong, some resistance now around 116 (115.9) but could extend as high as 120 to 124.

ID

I prefer working on paper. So I keep printed charts and handwritten analysis on paper and on charts, as I find it more accessible and I can always spread more sheets on the table than on my monitors.
Being busy, this last weeks I'm finding less and less time to transfer (those writings) and post here.

[idejan]

I believe we have minor reversal in progress in EURUSD and USDJPY.

EUR
I expect a small range trading until today (Friday) data between 1.2203 and 1.2125 first, before a move down to 1.2090/80 but not more than 1.2015 to 1.1980/65 to continue up toward 1.27-1.31 in the following few months. On a weekly chart we are just slightly above the border line in the EUR Bulls territory, but I still need a break above 1.2370/90 to confirm possible Minor uptrend. Close above 1.2098 on the weekly candle would be some indication.
Any ways, for those looking on intraday charts, either case (continuation down or reversal to 1.27-1.31), I expect trading to 1.23 first, before any move down or up.
Bulls and bears fight on the very border line.
My preferred view is reversal to 1.27 - 1.31
Any decisive break below 1.2015/00 will argue reconsidering the view.

JPY
I expect 113.70/85 to hold resistance and JPY to continue down toward previously mentioned 109/107/105 zone.
Break below 111/110.90 first , before we can confirm such scenario.
Although it is my preferred view, I'm watching closely for a possible continuation up, in which case above 116 targets could extend to 120 to 124.90

CAD$
I sit aside still.
Preferred view is UP (to around 1.25)

Good trading to all,
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

I believe we have minor reversal in progress in EURUSD and USDJPY.

EUR
I expect a small range trading until today (Friday) data between 1.2203 and 1.2125 first, before a move down to 1.2090/80 but not more than 1.2015 to 1.1980/65 to continue up toward 1.27-1.31 in the following few months. On a weekly chart we are just slightly above the border line in the EUR Bulls territory, but I still need a break above 1.2370/90 to confirm possible Minor uptrend. Close above 1.2098 on the weekly candle would be some indication.

Any ways, for those looking on intraday charts, either case (continuation down or reversal to 1.27-1.31), I expect trading to 1.23 first, before any move down or up.

Bulls and bears fight on the very border line.

My preferred view is reversal to 1.27 - 1.31

Any decisive break below 1.2015/00 and 1.1965 will argue reconsidering the view, but only break below 1.1900 will invalidate this view.

EUR
Moved exactly to the first support. Break and continuation above 1.2200 but preferably above 1.2237/48 to confirm minor trend reversal up to 1.27-1.31

Two intraday scenarios:

• first is continuation and break above 1.2200 which will accelerate above 1.2215/2230 (condition 1.2090 should hold)
• second is one leg up to around 1.2185 (but not more then 1.2203) to retrace down to at least 1.2090/80 but possibly to 2065/50/35 to continue up to 1.2345/54/68 and 1.2540 but more probably to 1.2622/2643/2657

Any decisive break below 1.2015/00 will argue reconsidering the view!!!

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY

I expect 113.70/85 to hold resistance and JPY to continue down toward previously mentioned 109/107/105 zone.

Break below 111/110.90 first , before we can confirm such scenario.

Although it is my preferred view, I'm watching closely for a possible continuation up, in which case above 116 targets could extend to 120 to 124.90

JPY
is showing some weakness which I would have expected from EUR more than JPY, but is still within the limits of acceptable to hold my preferred view of continuation down to 107/106/105 target levels.

Went just little above the mentioned resistance @ 113.70/85 - first to 113.95 and latter to 114.01, and I would feel more comfortable if this time 113.85 holds (or at least 114.00) and JPY continues to trade below. If not, then expect next move up to accelerate on break above 114.39 to min 116.49 but probably toward 119.95 to 121.06 and possibly 124.28.

Originally Posted by idejan

CAD$

I sit aside still.

Preferred view is UP (to around 1.25)

ID

CAD

Preferred view still UP.

Possible targets 1.1900/2008/2083/2181/2205

Intraday, it is most probable that retracement will continue down to at least 1.1725 or 1.1692/88 first, before it continues up; or even more sideways trading in the 1.1865-1.1725/1692 range before continuation up.

Continuation and break above 1.1865 will give more clear view and targets for the following days/weeks and is preferred scenario. The other scenario is where we will get a move up between 1.1835 and 1.1865 to bounce down to 1.1692/88 in 5 wave impulsive move.

Here lies the danger, since there is a great probability that CAD could go more south, to 1.13 levels.

I'll post more clear and detailed view on CAD later this weekend or by the end of next week.

Good trading all,
ID

*comments, questions, criticism are welcome.
One should always find potential for improvement in criticism. I know I do.

[idejan]

Terrible...

I was preparing a followup for some 2 hours now, and I lost it just before I was to submit it here. I'll definitely start writing in notepad first then paste here.
Anyhow, I have this weakness I can't repeat what I've written before... so I'll try just one brief overview of what was detailed report with intraday and medium term targets. I' redo tomorrow.

EUR
UP to at least 1.2350 and needs to break above 2370 to confirm minor uptrend is in place. More details tomorrow.
There are 3 important fib time extensions on 3, 4 and 5 October that are reinforcing the probability of 1900 from 4 Oct being short term low.
Below 1900 will invalidate this view.

JPY
I'm running thin on my confidence of JPY reversal to 107-105. But until it stays below 115 I expect strong reversal down. If not I will revert to my alternative view to 120-124 targets.
Break below 113.96/87 will lead to min 113.34 to 112.96 but more probably to 111.89/76 to continue down to 110.09/06 to finish first minute down, and after some minute correction to continue to 107.28 to 105.08

CAD
Played exactly as anticipated in previous post.
I have a medium confidence in my view of immediate continuation up, and some more retracement is not ruled
out before a continuation up. See previous post for targets.
There some indications of quite possible strong continuation down to below 1.15 too. More details tomorrow.

ID

PS it's almost 3 in the morning so I'll try to post details before US open as early possible during European.

[idejan]

EUR
broke just a few pips below my lowest support @ 1.1965 yesterday @ 1.1954 thus indicating possiblilty of continuation down. Any way only below 1.1900 would confirm that, and for now my prefered view is still up.
Intraday, first targets up 2070/78 to 2134/39/49 then break above 2203 to ease down presure, to move to min 2254 but more probably to 1.2337/49/57 area to finish first minute up (or alternatively will finish a correction of larger degree move down).

Now, break below recent low @ 1.1954 will expose first 1944 and then 1900. This is less likely.

More further up medium term targets are 1.2442 and Sept high @ 1.2589 but more probably little higher to 2624/2760/2820 to continue up to at least 1.3070

Break below 1.1900 will expose to min 1.1864 and less likely but possibly to 1.1755/30 and below.

I believe that the answer will come next week, and close of this weeks candle could give some indication (border line now @ 1.2108).

JPY
very close to may 2004 high @ 114.90
as I said I'm running very thin on JPY.

CAD
see previous posts for details.
If any break below recent low @ 1.1585 it should settle around 1.1525
We still need a break above first 1880 then 2020/40 but only above 1.2190/2200 will confirm minor uptrend to 1.24-25

not as detailed as it was but since it is end of the week, more over the weekend.
ID

[idejan]

Probability of shift in the current bullish Dollar sentiment has shrunken.
Now with JPY above 115, and EUR about to retest 1.1900 will shortly give the answer for the weeks to come.
I'm now neutral, and while I've run out on confidence in JPY in short term, I'm still not convinced in this stronger dollar scenario yet.
Let see EUR first.
EUR
is about to retest first 1.1912 and probably 1.1900, but break below that would open min to 1.1864 which in my opinion could go down even on the first attempt and the pair would then slide most probably to 1.1755/35.
But, in case this scenario proves to be true, then I would say that EURUSD will go deeper down to at least 1.1637 but most probably to area of 1.1316<>1.1183<>1.1006. It could however extend further down to 1.0380<>1.0010 but less probably.

What bothers me about this scenario is the fact that the move from 5 Jul 2005 to sept high (circled on the weekly chart detail) is to small to be considered as finished second leg, however technically it qualifies for wave x of double zigzag.

The other probability that I still hold view of, is that this whole development (from 5 Jul 2005) is a flat, which would prove true if the 1.1900<>1.1864 holds. In such case, a 5 wave pattern should follow to at least 1.27 levels, but more probably further above.
I should publish this faster before it becomes irrelevant since the EUR slided down more than 60 pips from the time I started writing this (arround 1.1985).
ID