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[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Idejan,

A bit of banter in this graveyard called MoneyTec -- that's what you'll get from me, but just to make sure for the future that you do NOT mistake my banter for personal criticism, let me state now that your EW analysis is the best I've seen -- it surpasses the perfectly wrong anal-ysis from Elliottwave International and the many voodoo EW practitioners who have been successfuly ensnaring gullible herbivores with their bombastic claims of 7,500% returns per second, etc.

Me looking for a master? No chief, I ride alone, but am not blind to talent when I come across it.

Don't let anyone convince you otherwise.

Well I understood just well, don't worry, I understand "criticism" only as a positive word, I would've use "offend" or anything similar if otherwise.
As for the master thing... Of course you're not, but since there are others reading this posts, I just could not stop reminding people not to "follow" others views, but to develop confidence in their own view using wisely others views.
I believe there is distinct difference between analysis and trading, having certain view and trading it. It depends on how confident you are in certain view on the market, what strategy you will use playing it. Then there is your risk aversion, capitalization blah blah blah...
While flirting with a girl could give you a good clue if the girl is interested, the lack of confidence could mean that all she'll get is just that flirt since you'll never get of that chair you are sitting at, or that your approach will be disaster and you should pray she is a dominant famine type...
I must admit I'm not that "dedicated" lately and it shows in my postings. Not to mention how much I agree with your opening line , and thus losing appetite for posting lately. I've always had a different understanding about "Forums", so I considered starting a blog since it is more appropriate for just logging my thoughts , but from lack of "appetite" and out of inertia I'm still posting here. Funny enough yours and ronnimars comments came just as my "appetite" was so thin I was considering a pause .

ID

Thanks for the compliments, although many would probably not agree with you , since I always disregard mechanical approaches to any TA and especially EW.
Replicating the exact proportions and geometry, and catching the personality, emotions, life, is that slight distinction between a cheap kitsch portrait and the true piece of art... Does that applies to Market too? Hm, it seems to me it has both personality and emotions, beside geometry...

[Trader01]

Idejan,



Art it is; the "emotion" factor accompanying each wave and all that this sort of analyzing entails, is what makes EW analysis an artform -- a difficult one but sheer poetry when it flies. I have caught a wave 3 here and there, a couple of times in a Southeast Asian stock market and I can tell you, I was in the clouds for months thereafter.

As for the graveyard, man this is one depressing place. Hope I don't run into any of these gents in the afterlife; just 2 months here and I've aged 10 years already, hehehehe.

Start your reverse thrusters now and let them warm up; we're almost at the 38.2% level (= 1.1740) --

[idejan]

Hi,

Sometimes, it takes me some time to write this posts because of the "interruptions" and the browser stays open, so I did not noticed that you posted another post before I answered your previous.
I've published long term chart in my previous thread My Elliott Wave Charts
(tnx stojce for html tip ), I'll re-post it here.
I have two targets around 1.14 level both Fib Extensions, and must admit that I haven't considered much precisely targets down.
Could you specify (start-end) points of your fibs?
I'll try to post chart later...
ID

[idejan]

Ok, I can see where your fib comes from.
I must admit that I'm not sure how I came with this count on the above chart, but I'm not really satisfied with it. I've searched for some notes with no result, on how I justified that Cycle wave (I) on the chart as being an IM wave, and it was most probably influence from my previous count on the USDDEM chart where I could have consider it as a LD (Leading Diagonal). And now I can see that I was probably not satisfied with last 5th wave that would end the diagonal on the top of the chart (see following chart below) of that diagonal internal (subwave) structure so changed it, but did wrong. I should have noticed such an obvious mistake, but I had a problem that time if it is worth considering data that is not made by the EURUSD, and how accurate it is. So I overlooked the prior EUR-o data and focused on 2001-2005 data. Apologize to all reading this post and have read My Elliott Wave Charts before.
The latest 2001-2005 data count on the previous chart is a valid EW market view so I'm not repeating it.
If somebody could provide more data (prior to 1976) it would be great to look at.
ID

Tnx for making me reconsider my longer term chart


the 78.6% fib (not on the chart) is right at the bottom of that wave (II) on the chart (Low @ 0.8220 fib @ 0.8168), so acctualy that 38.2 fib should not be valid since the correction should be considered finished, but it's good to consider all the possibilities.

[Trader01]

Eur/Usd

Fibo levels 38.2, 50 & 61.8 match up very well with solid monthly support structures dating back to antediluvian times (at least 1979).

But to see this clearly one has got to refer to charts going back to at least 1979.

Just looking at the 1998 to current charts that most data providers are offering for Euro, will not cut the mustard.

38.2% = 1.1727 ..... has she fired 6 shots or only 5? Don't know, but I'm going to hide and watch.

50% = 1.1118

61.8% = 1.0525

ProRealTime has history from 1979.

For even more history check out Sharefin (Australia) charts -- USD/DEM from 1800.

[Trader01]

Idejan,

Take a break from Elliott and check out some other beautiful women:

(1) Use a trendline for Macd (12,26,9) from June.

(2) Do the same for RSI (14).

Contact for both women ought to coincide with Price's arrival @ 38.2% Fibo.

Trend strength down has been decreasing consistently and now sits at 11. Will it turn up now and blast thru' supports or will the built-up divergence give us a rally?

I'm in the dark, but ..

with such beautiful women around, why be monogamous?

[idejan]

He he he, you caught me.
Don't tell my wife.
ID
I take care of my mistresses as you can see on the screen.
I've them dressed up, little makeup, all for public appearance.

[Trader01]

I thank you from the bottom of my heart and also my ex-wife's bottom!

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

...What is critical is the housing, since it was adding very significantly to US GDP in the past (last year 1.5pp and recently 2.25pp).
It is also a possible important psychological trigger.
So if you take out the housing, Us economy would have expanded roughly less 1pp since 2000, and last year, we even would have seen only a moderate increase of 2.5% instead of the strong +4.25%. In the first half of 2005, house prices contributed 2.25pp to overall growth of about 3.5%! Considering that this was all financed with borrowed money, the only thing that really expanded in US is credit. With Income not covering the borrowing, no savings, and with the very high dependence on foreign savings it is almost like if somebody could pull the plug and everything will stop.
Along side the private consumption, investment in residential construction was a strong contributor to US economy. With average of 10% y-o-y growth in previous two years, it contributed to nearly .5% of the GDP growth. And every 4-5 new job was created by the construction and real estate since the beginning of 2004.
...
ID

I wrote that earlier at the beginning of September (post #18)
Yesterday Dow Jones US Home Construction Index fell 7% as one of the building companies (Toll Bros Inc) lowered their sales outlook which triggered a sell off in the sector (TOL shares fell 14% yesterday). (Market Watch report here). Index seem to peaked in august and falling since then. (It's worth watching closely)
It is far from a crash yet, but could do some damage to sentiment... (see my previous post #18)
You can also check MarketWatch related reports (key word: Toll Bros Inc or see right side column for MarketWatch top news on the page from the link)

As for the Market, well my calls on Gold and Oil could prove right short term. Gold is up almost 6$ and heading higher to around 464.2 first, Oil still not confirmed my call of a possible minor bottom, but is trading highr and could be heading to 63-64.

Back to Forex,
My focus is back on CAD and JPY. CAD making nice uptrend on a daily, intraday to correct to 1.1820/1780. JPY made a nice correction but still far from confirmation of a possible top. EUR still above 1.17 but looking on the larger time frames down trend looks still healthy.
Reverse thrusters quite worm now but below 1.17 turning the ship for deep dive could be better. Quite curious though to see how the JPY will perform, since it could reflect to EUR. Trade data on Thursday!...
ID

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

I wrote that earlier at the beginning of September (post #18)
Yesterday Dow Jones US Home Construction Index fell 7% as one of the building companies (Toll Bros Inc) lowered their sales outlook which triggered a sell off in the sector (TOL shares fell 14% yesterday). (Market Watch report here). Index seem to peaked in august and falling since then. (It's worth watching closely)
It is far from a crash yet, but could do some damage to sentiment... (see my previous post #18)
You can also check MarketWatch related reports (key word: Toll Bros Inc or see right side column for MarketWatch top news on the page from the link)

As for the Market, well my calls on Gold and Oil could prove right short term. Gold is up almost 6$ and heading higher to around 464.2 first, Oil still not confirmed my call of a possible minor bottom, but is trading highr and could be heading to 63-64.

Back to Forex,
My focus is back on CAD and JPY. CAD making nice uptrend on a daily, intraday to correct to 1.1820/1780. JPY made a nice correction but still far from confirmation of a possible top. EUR still above 1.17 but looking on the larger time frames down trend looks still healthy.
Reverse thrusters quite worm now but below 1.17 turning the ship for deep dive could be better. Quite curious though to see how the JPY will perform, since it could reflect to EUR. Trade data on Thursday!...
ID

If you want to see the ultimate calls on Gold, Crude Oil, the US dollar, QQQQ, Real estate via Freddie, Fannie, the Dow JOnes Equity Reit Index, etc., and a few other items, PM me for the bulletin board name where I personally made these calls -- all documented with the date and time stamp and entire threads devoted to these items.

The USD call was made in Nov-Dec 2004.

Caught the Crude Oil top but sat on SHORT losses for 2 weeks with a distant stop. But smiling happily now. Trailing daily STOP in place!

I have given up making these calls on public (or is it pubic?) bulletin boards due to the constant attacks, arguments etc. I was called a lunatic, a mad hatter, a fellow totally out of touch with reality and a host of other things on both my Dollar Index and Crude Oil calls.


-----------------------------


As for my mention of reverse thrusters, yes absolutely, if the 1727 level (=38.2%) fails, the SHORT can be reinstated. But if the support fires first, even for a short time, I hammer it with several lots. Perfect with STOP right under the big support.

God, do I love it so!

[Trader01]

Idejan,



For Eur/Usd it appears from your charts that you are measuring the Fibo levels from the 1985 bottom to the 1992 top and are not considering the leg from 2000 to Dec 2004 -- can't read the numbers clearly.

Please explain.

Thanks

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Idejan,

For Eur/Usd it appears from your charts that you are measuring the Fibo levels from the 1985 bottom to the 1992 top and are not considering the leg from 2000 to Dec 2004 -- can't read the numbers clearly.

Please explain.

Thanks

Hi,
I took your advice and had some rest away from the charts , sorry I was not able to answer earlier.
To answer your above question, those red line fibs on the long term chart were an indication of what I believe was your long term fib resistance you've mentioned earlier and as I said in prev post I believe that they are not playing a role anymore.
I am considering the up leg in EURUSD and I have fibs, although I'm about to reconsider my previously held view and do some changes. My focus is now toward JPY and CAD. As for the EUR I'm now focused more on this downleg from Jan 2005 and it's structure, so I'm considering two possible Fib Extensions as a more probable targets then the up leg fib retracements.
EUR
probable consolidation up to 1.1861/1920 or little above, but I don't believe that we have a bottom here. To the downside, possible support in 1.1632/1582 area, but my most probable targets for now are just little below 1.15 (1.1485/74)

CAD
Intraday will probably make a double top before it corrects to around 1.1805/1765/1737 to continue up to 1.2043 and 1.213 area.

JPY in the following post
ID

[idejan]

I'm posting a long term chart of USDJPY and I'll try to write a more in detail analysis of JPY and possibly for EUR and CAD.
Looking on the shorter term chart it seems like a JPY could be reversing or at least doing a deeper corrective move toward 115, but I believe it has more on the upside so watch for a possible bounce up from 117.70/50
On the upside targets are as posted, and on the picture you can see a possible target area for ending this up trend and reversal to min 110, but probably much much lower.
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

EUR
probable consolidation up to 1.1861/1920 or little above, but I don't believe that we have a bottom here. To the downside, possible support in 1.1632/1582 area, but my most probable targets for now are just little below 1.15 (1.1485/74)
ID

Some details on EURUSD
ID

[idejan]

Hi,
Seeing that so many people actually visit this thread keeps me posting here, but I must admit I find less time doing it.
*I've written this report earlier today but had some ISP problems with connection.

USD showing "weakness" across the board. Small correction in all EUR, JPY, CAD and GBP is most possible scenario but not a reversal yet.
Critical issues that could shift the sentiment.
Focus is now off the oil prices for the time, which could be seen from CAD and JPY, and since the rate differentials are already tailored in the price, it could happen that focus could shift to structural issues.
But even that the rates differential are tailored in the prices, they could still prove to be the main driver in the months to come for few reasons.
The "cooling" of the housing market, showing the negative impact of the FED tightening policy, especially when the core inflation is below and likely to stay below 2.5%, indicating that the tightening is near it's end (and in my opinion we will most likely see a move in the opposite direction by the end of next year).
On the other hand, talks about possible moves by the ECB and BoJ could trigger positioning in the other direction. Although possible, I don't believe that move by the ECB is likely before Q2 2006, but BoJ is possible earlier in Q1 2006.
Most worrying however, is possible crash of the housing markets which could trigger more serious crisis, since it's negative impact would spread across sectors, and most important, on banks. Being the main driver of the US economy (2.25 of GDP and every 4-5 job was created by the construction and real estate) this "cooling" would show in the numbers to come, but more important it could be a significant psychological trigger. Some ease of a possible downward spiral, could provide the recovery and reconstruction of the hurricane affected Gulf areas.
Generally I don't see EUR becoming stronger in 2006 (with the EU economy staying stagnant, but stable and showing signs of recovery), but I see JPY and CAD going to build up strength and most probably heading down to below 100 in USDJPY and below 1.00 in USDCAD. This would however push EURUSD up.

EUR

Originally Posted by idejan

EUR
probable consolidation up to 1.1861/1920 or little above, but I don't believe that we have a bottom here. To the downside, possible support in 1.1632/1582 area, but my most probable targets for now are just little below 1.15 (1.1485/74)
ID

EURUSD sat on 1.1639, just little above an intermediate 38.2% fib @ 1.1632 and although the recent fall from 1.2171 in EURUSD looks like a finished 5 wave IM down which could completed the ZZ fall from 1.2587 (September high), I would say we have at least one more down to the targets in the 1.15 area on the chart below (right click and save to your desktop to be able to zoom in for details).
Targets of the correction up are on the chart, and there is a great confluence of fibs and MA's building a strong zone from 1.1808 to 1.1862
Move above 1.20 would argue a serious reconsideration of a possible bottom, and above 1.2150 would confirm that.

JPY

Originally Posted by idejan

Looking on the shorter term chart it seems like a JPY could be reversing or at least doing a deeper corrective move toward 115, but I believe it has more on the upside so watch for a possible bounce up from 117.70/50
On the upside targets are as posted, and on the picture you can see a possible target area for ending this up trend and reversal to min 110, but probably much much lower.

As I wrote in the previous post although it seems like a possible reversal, I believe that it will stay above 118.37/26 or would bounce from around 117.30 up to 120.80<>124.10 where I believe it will top.
However, it could extend lower to around 115.40 before, and breaking below that, could be some indication of a possible top, but only below 111.50/00 and preferably below 110.70 would be considered as a confirmation.
Immediate break above recent top would invalidate correction targets.

CAD

Originally Posted by idejan

Intraday will probably make a double top before it corrects to around 1.1805/1765/1737 to continue up to 1.2043 and 1.213 area.

Made a double top just as forecast and heading low to forecast levels, seeing strong confluence @ 1.1809/00 and @ 1.1765/57 target areas. It should not go below 1.1710/98 and 1.1639 low.
Immediate break above recent top would invalidate correction targets.

GBP
Just like the EUR, the last fall from around 1.79 could qualify for a finished IM move down, but I would say that after a probable correction to 1.725/73, we would most likely see at least on more dip down targeting 1.69/68 area.

ID