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[Trader01]

For Eur/Usd I have pretty much the same targets as you do for this current short-term upside correction.

Then we continue down to:


1660 ..... probability of reversal 30%

1560 ..... probability of reversal 50%

1380 - 1407 ...... God sits there with benevolence; but he is known to have abandoned us during George Bush's reign.

Don't know where we're going, but where we was, wasn't it!

[Trader01]

Idejan,

I have purchased a bottle of aspirin for use when I read your charts. I now have only 5 tablets left and am seriously considering supplementing this vitamin dosage with medicinal morphine.


Let's take a look at Usd/Cad:

I believe a LT bottom is either in or is almost in.

Sept 30-Nov 15 leg is wave "a" of a likely abc for the current wave (iv).

Wave "b" is in progress to around 1750.

Then wave "c" to top off (iv).

Then final descent to 1600s or thereabouts for (v). This completes (5) down.

Your comments please -- don't be shy to hurt my feelings; feel free to correct my mini-count for this last leg.

If you are going to post a chart as part of your response please keep in mind Dr Forex's South African axiom #3:

"By the time a technician gets done with a chart it is no more a piece of rapturous art -- it has then been transformed into chaos that can both ruin the eye and deaden the soul"

Your efforts are much appreciated; may you wake up tomorrow and be surrounded by 10 ravenous women!

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Idejan,

I have purchased a bottle of aspirin for use when I read your charts. I now have only 5 tablets left and am seriously considering supplementing this vitamin dosage with medicinal morphine.


Let's take a look at Usd/Cad:

I believe a LT bottom is either in or is almost in.

Sept 30-Nov 15 leg is wave "a" of a likely abc for the current wave (iv).

Wave "b" is in progress to around 1750.

Then wave "c" to top off (iv).

Then final descent to 1600s or thereabouts for (v). This completes (5) down.

Your comments please -- don't be shy to hurt my feelings; feel free to correct my mini-count for this last leg.

If you are going to post a chart as part of your response please keep in mind Dr Forex's South African axiom #3:

"By the time a technician gets done with a chart it is no more a piece of rapturous art -- it has then been transformed into chaos that can both ruin the eye and deaden the soul"

Your efforts are much appreciated; may you wake up tomorrow and be surrounded by 10 ravenous women!

I like your stile definitely , maybe we should consult on data and you do the writing... we could then consider choosing some exotic guru nick and start a new thread. But I doubt you need any medicine considering were you live .
I only wish I wake up tomorrow surrounded by 10 ravenous women, or to paraphrase Woody Alan "...18teen year old blond Swedish stewardesses hungry for sex...", but on some warmer place as today we got the first snow.
As for the charts, I look on 4 charts different time frames for every pair, and it's difficult to put all I see on 4 charts in just one ...but consider it as just a sample.
Now some brief overview.
Seems that cooling could turn freezing, just to many layoffs around... GM, Ford... nobody talks about the layoffs in construction, but with all that cooling I just wonder... and then banks heavily exposed into mortgage related securities, are banks the next news topic? But no problem. There are so many foreign investors not getin it yet.
With Americans turned into "spendoholics" and with FED yet ready to trow money from helicopters (the man had a vision, and now he could fulfill it), sounds funny to suspect even an "D" of "Deflation", but what about hyper-inflation? It's always good to consider all options. Although I use official data, I also consider some other figures too. For example while core rate is now around 2.1% and CPI 4.3%, using pre-Clinton methodology CPI is above 7%.
... Another indication is Gold, made $38 or around 8% to a new high, from my Nov 7 call. Not that good on Crude as it made new low some $3 down since than.

Where do I start ... CAD first, to answer your question.

Originally Posted by idejan

CAD
Made a double top just as forecast and heading low to forecast levels, seeing strong confluence @ 1.1809/00 and @ 1.1765/57 target areas. It should not go below 1.1710/98 and 1.1639 low.
Immediate break above recent top would invalidate correction targets.

First, it just played my scenario, double top, down to first target @ 1.1809/00 but did not stop there and is now sitting on the second target 1.1710/698 (I see I've missed that "6" in the previous post but I hope you all figured out your self). So even with crude falling CAD made lower, which could indicate USD weaknes more than I expected.
Now about your count. My preferred view for now is that we have a larger correction from Nov 2004 and that we are now in a last c wave of that correction. This Sept 30-Nov 15 leg could be wave A or W of that larger c, and this drop should complete a possible B or X, but in one other scenario we could see two more legs before that B finishes, if dollar weakness continues, probably making a double bottom in such case (IM structure of the last drop is not typical for B waves unless it is a first subwave a of that B, thus indicating two more legs - b&c).
However if you consider the drop from May '05 an IM wave down, continuation of the larger down trend and not part of the correction, then the recent correctional wave iv could be considered finished, in which case the last drop looking as an IM, fits in the scenario, and a break below the Sept '05 Low should confirm that. In that case wave v of this drop from May, could be aiming 1.16/14 zone (I'll provide more precise price targets later).
But as I've said previously in post #52, even that it could be analyzed as an IM wave down (drop from May '05) it has too much overlapping and running B's so I'm considering it as a finished DZ (Double ZigZag) rather than IM for now, and latest development from the Sept Low, as a last wave c of the larger degree correction targeting min of around 1.215 but probably higher to 1.23-25

EUR

Originally Posted by idejan

EURUSD sat on 1.1639, just little above an intermediate 38.2% fib @ 1.1632 and although the recent fall from 1.2171 in EURUSD looks like a finished 5 wave IM down which could completed the ZZ fall from 1.2587 (September high), I would say we have at least one more down to the targets in the 1.15 area on the chart below (right click and save to your desktop to be able to zoom in for details).
Targets of the correction up are on the chart, and there is a great confluence of fibs and MA's building a strong zone from 1.1808 to 1.1862
Move above 1.20 would argue a serious reconsideration of a possible bottom, and above 1.2150 would confirm that

Since that post EURUSD got right to the first target on the chart, fell strongly down, and made new high right on the second target from the chart. This should have finished this correction and the recent high should hold, but any decisive break above 1.1865, could target 1.20 to 1.2050 with just below 1.2 being the most probable in such case.
Break below 1.1639 should confirm 1.15/14 targets.

I meant to write just a short overview along the answer to your question but it turn more.

JPY

Originally Posted by idejan

JPY
As I wrote in the previous post although it seems like a possible reversal, I believe that it will stay above 118.37/26 or would bounce from around 117.30 up to 120.80<>124.10 where I believe it will top.
However, it could extend lower to around 115.40 before, and breaking below that, could be some indication of a possible top, but only below 111.50/00 and preferably below 110.70 would be considered as a confirmation.
Immediate break above recent top would invalidate correction targets.

Nothing to add to the above. Made a low little below that 118.37/26 level @ 118.19 and still trading above. If it goes below that, than 118.10/00 and 117.70 are the next support and possible reversal up points.

GBP

Originally Posted by idejan

GBP
Just like the EUR, the last fall from around 1.79 could qualify for a finished IM move down, but I would say that after a probable correction to 1.725/73, we would most likely see at least on more dip down targeting 1.69/68 area.

Just after my post GBP went right to the target @ 1.725 (1.7245 actual) drop almost 200 pips and bounced back to new high, and if that high breaks, than we could see min of 1.7340 to 1.7480/90 but could go to around 1.7580
If it holds, then we could expect fall to 1.69/68 area

ID

[idejan]

No edit? it seems it has been turn off.
Sorry WODY ALLEN , I scriblle when I write (I wrote Woody Alan)
I checked numbers but not your name

[idejan]

And ooh, one more thing... Tommorow's Money Supply. Thats were the inflation is coming from, not rising prices. And who's behind Money Supply and who is fighting inflation?
Happy Thanksgiving to all (that matters).
(me, I'm ortodox)
ID

[charle]

Confirm my believe to go long euro/usd from now till mkt closed on 30 nov 2005 !

[Trader01]

Thanks for taking the trouble to post a detailed answer. Points on the
Economy very good. Thanks.


Your count for Cad has got me thinking deeper. I'm already Long USD/CAD with a feeler play -- will not load up unless there is confirmation of a bottom. I plan to go for the duration of the coming trend -- if correct, that is. Will use Leverage only AFTER confirmation of a solid bottom.

Reminds me of something a russian woman said to me 5 years ago -- "bottom pickers get smelly fingers!"

I dared not ask about "top pickers"

[idejan]

Originally Posted by charle

Confirm my believe to go long euro/usd from now till mkt closed on 30 nov 2005 !

Hi charle

I'm not sure if you ask me to confirm your call on EUR or just want to tell that my view strengthen your believe.
I said before that I don't give any recommendations.
Yesterday I wrote:

Originally Posted by idejan

Since that post EURUSD got right to the first target on the chart, fell strongly down, and made new high right on the second target from the chart. This should have finished this correction and the recent high should hold, but any decisive break above 1.1865, could target 1.20 to 1.2050 with just below 1.2 being the most probable in such case.
Break below 1.1639 should confirm 1.15/14 targets.

which means that my view is still down, and I would not expect break above 1.1865
I don't really like writing intraday views but I would say that I expect a bounce from around 1.1750/40 but not higher than 1.1820 or max to 1.1865 to continue down to 1.15/14 targets.
As I said yesterday break above 1.1865 could target 1.20 ...

ID
price fell almost 20 pips as I write this (was at 1.1773 now at 1.1759)

[Trader01]

On Eur/Usd:

Upto 1895 or perhaps as far as 1967 to complete this little wave iv upward correction (without upsetting Moses' wavecount).

Then down to 1550-1378.

Then big Euro rally for a few weeks.

If anybody questions me I will deny I made such preposterous claims.

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by Trader01

On Eur/Usd:

Upto 1895 or perhaps as far as 1967 to complete this little wave iv upward correction (without upsetting Moses' wavecount).

Then down to 1550-1378.

Then big Euro rally for a few weeks.

If anybody questions me I will deny I made such preposterous claims.

Yeah baby! Let's go.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Yeah baby! Let's go.

Now watch 1.1785/90, if it breaks, it will need to hold support for at least 1.1855/65
If however 1.1737 and 1.1720/15 break down, expect new lows.

This short intraday was just to join the party
ID

PS. I don't use EW intraday just of the precaution that somebody could mistaken me as Neo (from Matrix).

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

PS. I don't use EW intraday just of the precaution that somebody could mistaken me as Neo (from Matrix).

(1) Are you not aware of the unspoken, powerful RULE in EW analysis? This rule is even more powerful than "wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1's territory."

Would you like to take a guess at what this rule is?

Hint: Robert Prechter and his crew at Elliottwave International have never violated it!

(2) Why is the eur/Usd engine humming?

Answers will be provided after your attempt!

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

(1) Are you not aware of the unspoken, powerful RULE in EW analysis? This rule is even more powerful than "wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1's territory."

Would you like to take a guess at what this rule is?

Hint: Robert Prechter and his crew at Elliottwave International have never violated it!

(2) Why is the eur/Usd engine humming?

Answers will be provided after your attempt!

Nope, I don't have a clue, I'm not their regular subscriber and in fact I haven't been on their web site for some time. In fact you'd be surprised if I tell you how many books I have read on EW
BTW I got Prechter Socionomics and Conquer the Crash, and they are sitting on my desk for a week now. I threw a glance and I'm not quite if I'll find what I've expected.
What really interest me is if I can find somebody who's been working on the "wave personality" since I find it the most important in EW.
But I'll take a blind guess:
Is it something I've mentioned few posts ago in my post about Macedonian Stock Exchange?
EUR holds 40%-50% of all Forex trading so that humming must be coming from the volume, which could happen to be coming from lots of participants, translated into mass of people, which could show herding characteristics and behavior.
I had some "inspired" posts on this subject in the previous thread. I regret I've closed it. Have you read the one about the "fundamentals"?
I'm not sure if the "masses" (crowd) is the correct answer to your question but in my opinion EW is about the crowd psychology so it could be best observed on larger tf.
the smallest tf I look for EW patterns is 1H but just to synchronize my count on the last unfinished patterns.
-----------

Now let's return to our pet beast and the wonders of the next week.
There were rumors on possible ECB rate increase in the previous months, and few posts ago I said "although possible, I don't believe that move by the ECB is likely before Q2 2006", now its clear that it will most probably happen Thursday since it was de facto announced by Mr. Trichet. Now the question is if the market will consider it as a beginning of a more serious tightening, although Mr. Trichet said that ECB is not preparing for a series of rate increases. So with a possible FED pause and ECB increase rate differentials could start narrowing and possibly reversing. But not likely that soon. However rate differentials were the main support for the dollar this whole year, so any change should be considered. Trader01 knows more on Carry trade and Interest Rate Differentials, so I'll leave this to him

Not much to add from previous week, so that is still valid,
EUR if any swing up it could be from this support 1.1710 or 1.1691, but fail to break above 1.1738 to 1.1774 resistance area could be a good indication of a continuation down to new lows. Break above that area would mean min of 1.1850/65 and break above that to around 1.2 (see other posts)
JPY
as expected did not made below that 118.2 support, made a new high and is most probably targeting up to 120.80<>124.10 where it will reverse or at least will make a more deeper correction, so there will be a nice short potential. Most probable reverse zone is 120.3 to 121.88 with this levels as a possible targets: 120.85/121.31/121.75
Break below 119/118.75 could be some indication of possible reconsideration of above view, but only below 112/111 could confirm a top.

CAD
Should stay above 1.1658/39
Break above 1.18 could be good confirmation for targets up.

GBP
Down to 1.69/68. Break below 1.7065 to confirm.
Break above 1.7210 and 1.7280 would mean min of 1.7450/80

By the time I've finished this, EUR broke below the support it was sitting on @1.1710, price now @1.1703.

And now I'd like to ask you something. In order to help me improve my posts, I'd be very grateful if you post what you think does not work, what would be more helpful to you etc. All your comments will be viewed only as a potential improvement points. You could post here or you could write on my gmail with my idejan user name. You could also ask any question and I'll give my best to answer to them.

ID

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

And now I'd like to ask you something. In order to help me improve my posts, I'd be very grateful if you post what you think does not work, what would be more helpful to you etc. All your comments will be viewed only as a potential improvement points. You could post here or you could write on my gmail with my idejan user name. You could also ask any question and I'll give my best to answer to them.

ID

Responding to your post piecemeal:

EW + S/R + Trendlines + consol or rev patterns (if any) + Momentum picture + current trend strength + optional

This is my suggestion for the formula because it is well-rounded.

A chart that delivers the picture clearly at a glance is worth its weight in gold.

Most of the charts (not necessarily you) I've seen in the different forums here beg the question, "does the chartist's living room look like that too?" If it does, I would not want to visit for fear I might sit on a hamburger or some such odd misplaced item.

These chartists have absolutely no mercy on the reader; they never stop to consider that most would just glance at the chart and say a quick f*ck*t and split with a headache.

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by Trader01

(1) Are you not aware of the unspoken, powerful RULE in EW analysis? This rule is even more powerful than "wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1's territory."

Would you like to take a guess at what this rule is?

Hint: Robert Prechter and his crew at Elliottwave International have never violated it!

(2) Why is the eur/Usd engine humming?

Answers will be provided after your attempt!

Answers:

(1) Elliottwave counts work flawlessly only in hindsight!


(2) Because it doesn't know the words!