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[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

What really interest me is if I can find somebody who's been working on the "wave personality" since I find it the most important in EW.
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ID

Actually Prechter has done extensive work on wave personality -- over the years I've seen quite a few articles that contain his research on this topic.

He may be a terrible market-timer but his EW research is very interesting reading and does allow one to get a broad overall view of the market. He is a firm believer in the value of market sentiment analysis. There used to be an article on the "character of wave 2" posted recently in the Club EWI section of their board. I believe it is still "free" to sign up as a member to read this board.

His bulletins titled, "Elliottwave Theorist" is also a place where you will find such data.

Helpful?

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Now let's return to our pet beast and the wonders of the next week.
There were rumors on possible ECB rate increase in the previous months, and few posts ago I said "although possible, I don't believe that move by the ECB is likely before Q2 2006", now its clear that it will most probably happen Thursday since it was de facto announced by Mr. Trichet. Now the question is if the market will consider it as a beginning of a more serious tightening, although Mr. Trichet said that ECB is not preparing for a series of rate increases. So with a possible FED pause and ECB increase rate differentials could start narrowing and possibly reversing. But not likely that soon. However rate differentials were the main support for the dollar this whole year, so any change should be considered. Trader01 knows more on Carry trade and Interest Rate Differentials, so I'll leave this to him

ID

I am indeed very surprised to see a man of your stature so confounded by rumours, the ECB, the Fed and what/when they are going to do what and to whom, how many times & why?

Shocking!


Here's what I suggest to you:

If you dig into the subject of Bond yields and study them for a few days - you can dispense with the liability of paying any attention to Trichet, Easy Al (or his successor) or even to the divorced couple, Georg Bush/Saddam Hussein.

Similar thoughting to be applied to the Central Banks of Australia, Japan, Canada etc. These particular ones however, I am still looking into getting the appropriate data source for eval in a tech. analysis program.

The Fed is powerless to go against the direction of yield spreads; The Fed only moves in response to what has already been foretold by the direction of spreads.

But since the pubic needs a guru, they hail Easy Al everytime he makes a move on Interest Rates.

In your software, plot a 5-yr Treasury Bond yield minus 30-yr yield (this means you are plotting the differential) -- use TA tools if necessary to gauge the trend -- even EW counts will work here.

Then superimpose the USD Index chart; then pour on the Fed funds rate chart.

That's just for starters.

I said this same stuff to 2 fellas last week.

The very next day, one was transformed, the other landed in a lunatic asylum.

[idejan]

One thing is what and how I observe and consider, and the other thing of equal or greater importance is what others observe and how they consider market issues.
So more often one should consider what others will be considering and how they will react, if one wants to be ahead of the crowd.
In previous post the first part is brief comment on what's been into the "focus" of the crowd, and :"But not likely that soon" my comment on that.
I have read your posts here and I was planing to post few links to your posts in this thread, since you have posted things that are exactly what I would say on few issues . For those interested just click Trader01 and then Find more posts by Trader01. You'll find a lot to learn, but even if not, at least his posts are very entertaining.
ID

[Trader01]

Since there is so much debate about the Fed vs ECB vs BOE etc., may I suggest you take a look at the Fed funds Rate monthly chart ( I have data back to 1975).

On it you will see clearly the unmistakeable historic resistance barrier @ 4.089.

The resistance is so powerful that it is worth taking a closer look at.

Just above, @ 5.0 is yet another resistance stemming from "pattern" congestion.

I would venture to guess that the heat of the debate is directly proportional to the viscosity & density of these 2 resistances.

Given the choice, my preference is always to listen to what my charted data tells me, regardless what CNBC and other dignitaries are saying.

[Trader01]

Its very annoying when the market follows your wavecount to a "t" -- its downright exasperating!

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by Trader01

On Eur/Usd:

Upto 1895 or perhaps as far as 1967 to complete this little wave iv upward correction (without upsetting Moses' wavecount).

Then down to 1550-1378.

Then big Euro rally for a few weeks.

If anybody questions me I will deny I made such preposterous claims.

I get very suspicious when she (the market) does everything I command her to do and especially when I read her sly, slick and devious moves in advance.

[bearprofits]

Maybe where we was, was it, and the big Euro rally already started?

Guessin the next stop up 2000 - 2034.

Crazed Bear playin in the Forex.

[Trader01]

Idejan,


Kindly post Eur/Usd 60-min. chart of your EW count for the mini-rally from 4:00 AM ET Nov 28th @ low = 1.1680.

Hope I didn't scare you off by talking about the Fed Funds Rate and scolding you for listening too much to Trichet and co.

Next beer is on me -- Port wine included.


And Bear, I've seen one of your Eur/Usd charts in the Elliott thread -- care to answer the question above. My count differs from yours in that you were expecting a deeper, longer dive in December. If memory has served me incorrectly, my apologies.

I am still of the opinion that we've got to dive once more to around 1560 to kill Ten Bears (not related to you, Bear) and as many of his guerillas as we can before wave 2 up commences.

[bearprofits]

Trader01,

Indeed by my counts a 5th wave is needed, but having a hard time taking my eyes off the similarity between the length of wave1 and the present length of current wave. Here we enter the debate of waves retracing into areas that are taboo.

Maybe a truncated 5th?

[bearprofits]

But this sure looks like the start of something bigger, imo.

Have yet to solve the equation.

Fwiw, an amateur bearish view.

Btw, Very interesting on the Treasury spreads

[idejan]

Excellent bear

here is a brief scratch from me
That B or 2 on your chart looks like a perfect IM so I'm considering it a possible C of (W) or (B)
And if the whole pattern is a FLAT, than it is probably finished @ 1.1900 as I wrote you few days ago in my mail, if not than it will develop more to the up side.

First critical level down is around 1.1795 and below is a stronger support marked on the chart.

No I was not scared, I'm never scared of a people who know what they are talking and from whom I can learn. I could be scared of those with intelligence below room temperature.

ID

[Trader01]

Bear, thanks for the charts -- good work.

Upto Minor 4 top on Sept 2 -- same as my count.

Here's where we differ:

Minor 5 started on Sept 2.

(ii) of 5 completed Nov 2.

(iii) of 5 completed Nov 15 or 16.

We are therefore in wave C of (iv) of 5 currently.

When this wave C completes, we go down for (v) of 5.

Expected reversal modified to 1560 instead of 1560-1378.
Will give your 4-hr chart scenario some further thought now.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by bearprofits

Trader01,

Indeed by my counts a 5th wave is needed, but having a hard time taking my eyes off the similarity between the length of wave1 and the present length of current wave. Here we enter the debate of waves retracing into areas that are taboo.

Maybe a truncated 5th?

Not quite, since it is not uncommon for the 5th to be ED (Ending Diagonal) and one other thing is that a small retraces into wave 1 territory is tolerable and not uncommon in leveraged markets, especially on smaller time frames.
Best to all
ID
PS. Bear, although I presented a little different count for the last ongoing correction from that on your chart, possible Fib Ext fit better from your AB points with my other S/R tools and thats a possibility I have in my mind too, but the true is that the both counts have similar targets and most important - same direction.

[charle]

My idea I think bear profit of euro/usd may be met in 2-3 hours ahead , to be proofed!

[Trader01]

Idejan,

Muchas gracias, amigo.
Great chart, the X and W notwithstanding. Always a pleasure to see an orthodox Elliottician in our midst. Physics, chemistry, me don't like, but Mathematics, you write sigma, sigma, you get marks. Didn't help George Bush, who got grace marks and still failed.

Please note that RSI had hit 67 but has not been able to conquer its trendline yet.

Even more telling is the Macd trendline -- not taken out yet