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[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Idejan,

Muchas gracias, amigo.
Great chart, the X and W notwithstanding. Always a pleasure to see an orthodox Elliottician in our midst. Physics, chemistry, me don't like, but Mathematics, you write sigma, sigma, you get marks. Didn't help George Bush, who got grace marks and still failed.

Please note that RSI had hit 67 but has not been able to conquer its trendline yet.

Even more telling is the Macd trendline -- not taken out yet

Sorry I did not mentioned - it's H4 chart, so Not on my chart yet . Still below 65. I've mentioned it just as one argument more but more relevant to me is Price and those levels on the chart.
1.18/1780/1764 for possible bounce up.
This turned into intraday challenge

[Trader01]

Bear,


Referencing your 4-hr chart, the move you labeled as 1 or A ......

IMHO it is unlikely to be the start of a 5-er; just too many internal overlapping subwaves. It has the stench of a wave a.

The down move thereafter, which I called wave b -- has the look and feel of someone all dressed up to go south, but ran into his ex and got his ass kicked north -- this is what we call a setup for a wave C phenomenon.

Didn't Prechter say that wave Bs are phonies?

Just thoughting aloud, amigos, that's all.

Have done outstandingly well on this rally. Will not need to dial 1-800-BOOZE ever again.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Bear,


Referencing your 4-hr chart, the move you labeled as 1 or A ......

IMHO it is unlikely to be the start of a 5-er; just too many internal overlapping subwaves. It has the stench of a wave a.

The down move thereafter, which I called wave b -- has the look and feel of someone all dressed up to go south, but ran into his ex and got his ass kicked north -- this is what we call a setup for a wave C phenomenon.

Didn't Prechter say that wave Bs are phonies?

Just thoughting aloud, amigos, that's all.

Have done outstandingly well on this rally. Will not need to dial 1-800-BOOZE ever again.

Ha ha ha, I said I should let you do the writing.
Speaking of which, did you mention you consider the whole drop from jan '05 as a possible wave 1 down?

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Sorry I did not mentioned - it's H4 chart, so Not on my chart yet . Still below 65. I've mentioned it just as one argument more but more relevant to me is Price and those levels on the chart.
1.18/1780/1764 for possible bounce up.
This turned into intraday challenge

No my friend, I would not make a mistake so egregious; it is the 4-hr chart and here are the details:

Nov 28th @ 20:00 ET ..... RSI(14) = 67.211

but as I said, not as important as the trendline getting taken out -- then we know it means business topside.

Now take a break from Elliott for just one minute and smell this rose:

On 4-hr, pull up ADX(21) -- why? Unless the slope drastically increases for the next leg up, I think we've got a dud. That's why I'll be ready to turn on a dime and fire a missile @ 1.1560.

[idejan]

my mistake, missed this

RSI(8)=61.82

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Ha ha ha, I said I should let you do the writing.
Speaking of which, did you mention you consider the whole drop from jan '05 as a possible wave 1 down?

Yes, I have said that and still do.

The entire Eur/Usd move down from January 1 will finish as Intermediate wave (1). Of course then comes wave (2) up.

I realize that this is against your call for a long-term bullmarket in the Euro. Your call agrees with that of Prechter and gang.

I'm going to have to stand alone on this. That's why my gal always looks at me funny when she plays the song, "Mr. Lonely"

[idejan]

Actualy that was my call before the break of 1.17 level. Since my first posts here I've said that 1.17 is the line where I'm reconsidering my EUR bullish view. I tend not to take sides anyway

Now I'm neutral to just slightly bullish on dollar, but more neutral still. I wait for confirmations.

So is that what you consider for the USD with JPY and CAD?
ID

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by idejan

Actualy that was my call before the break of 1.17 level. Since my first posts here I've said that 1.17 is the line where I'm reconsidering my EUR bullish view. I tend not to take sides anyway

Now I'm neutral to just slightly bullish on dollar, but more neutral still. I wait for confirmations.

So is that what you consider for the USD with JPY and CAD?
ID

Yes, I do feel that the coming years are for the $. He's taken a beating in the last several years, even at the hands of the lowly Thai Baht and other criminally insane asian currencies.

They were laughing at him, mocking him and throwing rocks and sewage in his direction. He stayed buried in a dungeon so deep and dark that one knew if he ever revists his inner strength again, he would rise with a vengeance so deep and powerful that he would show up for a gunfight against euro with just a knife -- and still beat him. So much was his humiliation and suffering that he ain't going to be going down for quite some time to come.

That prick Warren Buffet was badmouthing the Dollar like a banshee. His current losses are many billions.

Even if my 5-wave long-term count is wrong and we are only in a Primary ABC correction -- he will still give the Yen and CAD a solid pasting in wave C Primary.

I'll be there to cheer him on.

I really do believe, Idejan that you should start looking into the predictive power of Interest Rate Differentials and Spreads. It is the dollar's food, his prime weaponry and he responds to it just as we humans respond to Pizza and Mongolian BBQ.

[Trader01]

@ 1.1760 resides the 200-period MA on 60-min.

@ 1.1765 resides the 200-pd on 15-min.

Something's got to happen in there!

Question is: has Euro fired 6 shots, or only 5?

[bearprofits]

Missed all the dialogue!

After posting last night felt an overwhelming urge to stare at the back of my eyelids, then had to tend to the Bear Business today ( had to swat a few salmon out of the stream to feed the cubs - and I thought that was the job of da’ mama bear?).

Anyways, great exchange of ideas, thanks all. And thanks for the encouragement on the charts, The Bear is very much the novice in these matters, if they make sense, it’s because a couple of very gracious gentlemen guru traders have spent many an hour trying to teach a bear to trade.

Thanks for your feedback, it’s a great way to learn.

And I thought juggling while standing on a ball was hard!

Trader01,

How do arrive at the 1560 level? If this is elementary, My apologies if I sound like Dr. Watson.

Me thinks euro tried to fire a shot, but it may be a dud…. or with the positive US news, maybe the dollar fired a dud?? Still looking long, but may be looking for a place to land before too much longer, see what happens tonight, or tomorrow for those of you that have already experienced tonight- ness.

Again thanks everyone, this is one of the very few educational threads in the forum.

[Trader01]

Originally Posted by bearprofits

Missed all the dialogue!

After posting last night felt an overwhelming urge to stare at the back of my eyelids, then had to tend to the Bear Business today ( had to swat a few salmon out of the stream to feed the cubs - and I thought that was the job of da’ mama bear?).

Anyways, great exchange of ideas, thanks all. And thanks for the encouragement on the charts, The Bear is very much the novice in these matters, if they make sense, it’s because a couple of very gracious gentlemen guru traders have spent many an hour trying to teach a bear to trade.

Thanks for your feedback, it’s a great way to learn.

And I thought juggling while standing on a ball was hard!

Trader01,

How do arrive at the 1560 level? If this is elementary, My apologies if I sound like Dr. Watson.

Me thinks euro tried to fire a shot, but it may be a dud…. or with the positive US news, maybe the dollar fired a dud?? Still looking long, but may be looking for a place to land before too much longer, see what happens tonight, or tomorrow for those of you that have already experienced tonight- ness.

Again thanks everyone, this is one of the very few educational threads in the forum.

Hi Bear,


Its 8:00 AM for me here in Thailand. Got tired waiting for the 200-pd MA on the 60-min chart to "fire" last night, so I went to bed without any limit orders set; was pleased to see that Eur/Usd did doodly squat while I was unconscious.

Will answer your qt about 1560 shortly, but wanted to get this off to you in case you missed it -- on 60-min. chart draw a trendline from the Nov 28th @ 15:00 hrs spike top to touch the current action. See the nice fit? If the mini-battle gets won here, Eur/Usd will rocket up once more. Corroborating evidence would be Price getting above the 200-pd on 15-min. and staying stably above it on 60-min.

The Master here is Idejan, a true, orthodox Elliottwave enthusiast. His work here at the board is truly outstanding and his generosity knows no bounds. Like you Bear, I know what I know and I know it well, but speaking only for myself, it pales in comparison to what the Master knows.

[Trader01]

The significance of the support region, 1560


On daily chart eyeball the support structure that lies between May & December 2003. Encompass it in its entirety with your gaze while attempting to gauge its core or axis.

Two levels will stick out without much difficulty.

One of them is 1407 -- this level is not only the core of this structure, it is also a powerful weekly/monthly support extending back to 1980. Many regiments are stationed here; I've noticed at least 10 Gatlin guns in the bushes on its outskirts.

OK, then on to 1560 -- this is a sub-core of the very same congestion; it is the first line of defense before the Core is reached by enemy forces. It protects the Core from weakening. Only if it fails will the General give the command at 1407 for instant Defcon 4.

And TA (the other variety is no slouch either for us guys ) provides even more serendipitous munificence via the fact that the 38.2% Fib is just a tiny notch above 1560.

The way I see this congestion operate in battle if it is ever threatened:

38.2% Fib will take out the steam & vigor of the advancing ground troops and throw their resolve into doubt.

1560 will die in the attempt and give its life willingly to protect the core at 1407.

Humbly presented but, God, do I love it so!

[Trader01]

Something to pay particular attention to:

On the daily chart
Hold some full Lots ready to fire; I mean you can go in big, i.e. 5 to (whatever) Lots. This is for a several week buy and hold.

When?

That is what I'm battling with?

Why?

Whenever you see the 21 period ADX, aka Trend strength drop to under 15 and spend time basing, which means, gathering strength, receiving absolution and confession, etc., it means that a whopper of a move is in the making. In our particular case here, Eur/Usd has been basing since August 31st.

There is an indication that the depth of the basing is complete because she rose from 10 to 13; but there is no assurance that she will not dip lower again.

Therein lies the difficulty because it tests one's patience and resolve. If the market goes into a sideways congestion, ADX will stay basing for months.

The only sign that I personally know is when she rises to above 15; that is when she pours on the coal, jettisons all the deadbeats and fires off into a 45 degree trajectory.

All that remains is to accurately gauge the direction -- north or south or east.

Through sheer depth of intelligence, I have eliminated "west" as a possible direction.

[bearprofits]

Trader01,

Hummm, very interesting?????…..Need some time to ponder them levels. Thank you for tonight’s study material.

When?

Ah, now there’s the question that’s almost never asked in these scared threads. But it’s just if not more important than where, imho. Figure out a way to combine the two and if price meets time, then fire away.

Back after some cognitive exertion

[bearprofits]

Here’s my best impersonation of Madam Shotinthedark’s crystal ball routine.

Daily lines of interest.

Close up to follow