MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trade Recommendations » Long Term Trade Recommendations

[bearprofits]

Although I have been taught to abstain from fundamentality, can’t help but hearing this echo thru my cavernous noggin… Homeland investment act, homeland investment act….homeland……..see if you listen close you can hear it too! or the surf, either way….

Est. $300Bil total, $75Bil this quarter headed back into the US. from foreign shores, give half of the remaining 21 hairs still left on my balding head to know how much is in already the quarter. But just a guess that the Big Boy Companies will wait till the holiday slowdown to repatriate their remaining reserves, just before the deadline, year end. Lots of Dollar buying about to go on.

Thinking this will fuel the last wave down…..


Now, with this on my mind and my objectivity obscured….., to the question, where and when?

If where we was, wasn't it.

The Bear’s best guess.

Will start to look north around the mid 1400’s and If I had to put a time stamp on it, how about the first day of winter. 12-21. Would like to see that 2000 level to make a nice drop to the target. Expect a lot of spiking till then, should make for a nice Christmas.

There’s where the Bear will try and catch a Wolfe.

That’s the way me see’s it at the moment, we’ll see how much this gets blown up over the next few days.

Now someone please put me out of my misery.

[Trader01]

Thanks for the charts, Bear -- let me ask you about one particular line in your daily chart:

I'm referring to the middle red line -- do you recognize this line as the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern?

If so, would you agree then that we have a confirmed break of the neckline during the first week of November?

If you're with me so far, then isn't it normal (75%) that a confirmed H&S pattern retests the broken neckline?

Would you also agree that the right breast is either very beautiful or downright ugly? .... because Eur/Usd just spiked up in an awful hurry, touched it and bolted like a bat out of hell to reconsider the merits of such forward behaviour?

He's been moping around since then.

The Question re-phrased is: how much longer is this titman going to mess around with these cheap feels before he summons up the courage to head for the thighs?

One more cheap feel seems inevitable. If however he does bust up thru' to the n*pple area, I will SHORT him on the first sign of satisfaction!

That's my call.

[Trader01]

Bear, you might want to download the last several issues of Currency Trader magazine -- there are at least 2 large segments on volume of money pouring into the US Dollar. Major increases started somewhere in 2004 -- before Greenie started hiking.

Foreigners seem to be more than ecstatic to finance the deficit and show no signs that the current lust for the $ will abate any time soon.

Stay tuned for a few days/weeks as I put together a chart to show how ALL Greenie's moves on Fed Funds rate were signalled well in advance by yields!

This would confirm my claim that Easy Al only responds to what the market has already foretold.

[Trader01]

Master Idejan,



Charlton Heston replied to my email and said he has been encouraging you to take some time off from your movie scripting duties and help us extras make some additional money.

Let's get to it then:

I've been a damn fool not to look at the 60-min chart of the US dollar Index. I've had it for some time now, but forgot about it.

It is clearly showing that dollar Index is in wave ii currently and it looks to be completing a diagonal triangle for the C portion of this wave ii.

We are at 91.53 and will hit the diagonal @ 91.34 within a matter of a few hours.

If this is correct then Eur/Usd has got one final burst up before wave iii up in dollar Index sends euro hurtling down towards 1660, 1560, 1450 or 1407.

Your comments on this Diagonal triangle in wave c position of a 2nd wave?

[Trader01]

Yeah baby, take it all the way down to 1407 or even 1560. I don't mind; not one bit.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by Trader01

Master Idejan,



Charlton Heston replied to my email and said he has been encouraging you to take some time off from your movie scripting duties and help us extras make some additional money.

Let's get to it then:

I've been a damn fool not to look at the 60-min chart of the US dollar Index. I've had it for some time now, but forgot about it.

It is clearly showing that dollar Index is in wave ii currently and it looks to be completing a diagonal triangle for the C portion of this wave ii.

We are at 91.53 and will hit the diagonal @ 91.34 within a matter of a few hours.

If this is correct then Eur/Usd has got one final burst up before wave iii up in dollar Index sends euro hurtling down towards 1660, 1560, 1450 or 1407.

Your comments on this Diagonal triangle in wave c position of a 2nd wave?

Sorry my friend,
I was on the phone all day, trying to help a friend who is in serious trouble because of administrative err.

So I'm a bit distracted and I couldn't grasp your wave ii on USDX. if you could trow a chart maybe I could comment.
The way I see it, it should not break below the support around 91.65 and should break above the trendline just above it's head now. RSI(8) should be able to break 60-65 on Daily.
If however breaks below that support, than 90.30 and 89.35/10 could be the possible reversal up points with first being more probable.
It will probably top above 94.

I'm watching closely the USDJPY which is now into the possible reversal zone (or at least for a possible larger correction to around 112/111).

With EUR low sitting on a 38.2% Fib Ret. @ 1.1634, for those considering the whole drop from the beginning of '05 as an Impulsive move down, bears thoughts of a 5th failure and especially w1=w5, should be taken into closer consideration.
However, presented on the prev. EURUSD chart is what I believe is the probable with the gray alternative slightly more probable.
Crude is at the point from where it is very probable it could start correction to above 60 probably 62.00-62.50 but would not possibly be taken into consideration by markets unless it breaks more up and above 65. Gold possibly toping but not giving up yet and will probably be topping around 507.8<>515.6 with a possible correction to 484.50 before....

More over the weekend, when I'll try doing more than just a brief glimpse across the board. And since this was literary just a brief glimpse across the charts, take it with reserve.

Take care
ID

[idejan]

EUR
Looks like the gray alternative on that chart few posts back could be in play, in other words we would see a continuation down to 1.15/14 targets.
Needs to break below 1.1659 and 1.1639 to confirm.
Any break above 1.1750/75 could increase the possibility of 1.1639 being a minor bottom but that should be confirmed with break above first 1.19 and more important 1.2085.
Although it is possible, my preferred view is still down.
Anyway, even if the EUR breaks above 1.2085 it does not mean return of the EUR bull, but instead it could suggest possible sideway trading in the range of 1.16 to 1.27 throughout 2006 or at least by September 2006.
If however after a drop below 1.1639 we see a clear impulsive reversal developing to above 1.2085 than it could be considered a possible return of EUR bull. For now I believe we have some more down before any such possibility.

JPY
As I said, reached the possible reversal zone, achieved first and almost the second target @ 120.85 and 121.31 (got to 121.27 now) next is 121.75
There is a great resistance area from here to around 126.6 back from 1988 which could be seen on the monthly chart.
There are also trend line from Aug '98 just above it's head around 121.45 and one from '85 around 122.5, also two fibs 61.8 of the drop from Feb 2002 to Jan 2005 @ 122.39 and 127.2 fib ext from beginning of the year @ 124.1
Break below 119 and then 116.5 to signal possible if not reversal then larger correction to min of around 113 and only break below 111/110 could confirm possible continuation down to below 90.

CAD
I'm now neutral and aside, chances increased on the down side although I suspect such a scenario and I still believe it will go up to min 1.2150.
Needs to break above 1.1780 to confirm possible continuation up to min 1.2150 and 1.23-25
Break below 1.1585 low (but preferably below 1.1535) will suggest reconsidering the whole drop as being an Impulsive wave down, in which case 1.1475 to 1.1353 area as a probable first target area for this wave, with longer term targets below 1.00 and 0.90 Anyway such a break would not necessarily invalidate previously held view of a correction to 1.23/25 since the latest drop could be part of a B flat, which could break below the 1.1585 low not invalidating the whole picture of a continuation up in a wave C to finish this last wave c of a correctional wave II.

GBP same as EUR probably has at least one more down to 1.69/68
Breaking above 1.735 could mean at least 1.745 to 1.752 and we need a break below 1.7240 to ease the up pressure and continue down to below targets.

ID

[Trader01]

Bye!

My demo is complete. Three and a half months. Decided on a broker.

I go live now.

Unlike Arnold, I won't be back.

This graveyard has aged me tenfold.

If we meet in the afterlife I'll buy the first round.

[bearprofits]

Idejan, Trader01 and all,

Trader01 hate to see ya go, your writing style has kept me laughing the past few weeks, gl!

Idejan,

Updated my daily, still looking at this as being a bottom as long as the 1640 holds, do believe though, we are at that junction that may give a clue to overall direction. So far price has failed to meet my black median and it’s inability to sustain a move that equals the direction of the fork shows weakness imo. The deadline for price to fulfill it’s obligation to this fork, ends at the edge of the gray shade over the median. Price is at the upper black tine and testing it, so either price breaks above, this would give credence to the brown upward fork and a northerly stance or price bounces south, there’s a lot of congestion coming out of this area, imo the break will be decisive.

But the question to ask, will price make it’s black shaded median target? There’s still time.

Personally, playing this north, as long as the 1640 holds.

Should make for a very interesting end of the year.

Good trading everyone.

Bear

[bearprofits]

Possible high for the day forming around here at the 1787, the 1838 for today is the critical level. Above this line opens the door for more north.

Cleaned up the daily a bit more.

Good day everyone

[xtsunami]

and it will get there at what time, bear?

xt

[bearprofits]

Xtreme Tsunami,

It’s good to hear from you.

When???

Personally don’t think price will see the black median, but just taking common price angles , price could make it by New Years….Which is a valid option. Howeve taking the length in time of the 2nd wave, from the end of the 4th, time will run out 12-21. Price is not following the angle of the fork, looks to this amateur bear that price is running out of steam going south.

My best bet would be,( if the 1640 fails) for price to meet time at the red support line 12-14 low 1400’s, also would look @ high 1300,s ( 1374/75 holds some good sup/res levels if you go back mid 2003) on 12-27 which will hold with the cycle of lows since mid year.

Bear

[idejan]

Hi
Nice to see you XT.
Trader01 I would surely miss your posts. Paste the link of your new board, good luck with your trading and take care my friend. You have my mail, drop a line from time to time.
If we meet in this life, drinks are on me.

Bear, it is clear that this advance was lead by the commodity group, and that it has not much with eventual EUR strength, as I can see on the board there is a difference on the dollar retreat on AUD and CAD charts, then on the EUR, CHF and GBP with this last two showing signs of a finished correction. JPY was losing across the board so it is not in this consideration.
I was expecting that Gold continuation up and a limited up correctional move in Crude as I wrote the other day, but I also expected that it will be balanced with positive USD data. Looking on the USDX this could be a case, but surprised me with a break below 1.1639 and a new low on USDCAD.
Looking at EUR CHF and GBP it seems that of all tree EUR was the weakest since it did less that other two.
Now just as I was writing GBP made a sharp fall from the 1.745 level not followed by others yet.

It could be close to reversal but not yet in my opinion.
ID

[idejan]

US dollar Index looks like it could be pointing to 91 level so we could possibly see some more retreat of USD on the board but that should be limited.

EUR
Should stay below 1.1855 and 1.19. Break above 1.1920 could be considered a possible sign of a broader correction to min 1.2085, and break above that could be some good confirmation of even larger correction which could go up to 1.24 to 1.27 (there is a case in which a Flat from July low could be in play, with running B @ 1.1639 and next C target from 1.24 to 1.3 which could finish larger degree second leg of the drop from beginning of the '05).
Needs a break below 1.1760<>45 support area to ease the upward pressure, and that could be a good indication of a possible continuation down to 1.15/14.

GBP
Should be contained below 1.7455 and 1.7527. Break above could significantly increase possibility of seeing larger correction taking place to 1.78/1.82
Need a drop below 1.726 to ease the upward pressure.
I still don't consider possible reversal is in place.

On the weekly charts of both EUR and GBP, possibility of a larger correction goes up to 1.2150/70 on EUR and 1.773 on GBP but less likely, although there is a nice divergence on both charts and on the GBP that divergence development shows slightly bigger chance of a broader correction (or reversal) up.

JPY
Made a high @ 121.38 just few pips above my target @ 121.31 and it is now into the possible reversal zone but I believe it has not started to reverse yet. Will be trading above 120.31/16 and if breaks below I would not expect to go below 119.4.
Next targets above as posted in prev. msg.

CAD
don't have a proper targets at the moment, but just a brief one.
On continuation down the min target should be around 1.1505 / 1.1377 / 1.1214 or in a slightly different version 1.1534 / 1.26 / 1.08
Needs to break above 1.1974 to invalidate what now seems a more probable pattern, and that is - drop from the May '05 being a IM wave continuation of the larger degree IM down. (see chart on page 3 msg #52)
Intraday a correction up to 1.1597 is a most probable. Then a clear impulsive devlopment would be a good indication of a continuation down.

Well I'm losing steem and need to step off a while. And since the next week could provide more answers then this one, I could use a little break. So if I'm gone this few days, I count on bear and others to fill the gap. Safety nets in place...

Good luck to all of you
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

US dollar Index looks like it could be pointing to 91 level so we could possibly see some more retreat of USD on the board but that should be limited.

EUR
Should stay below 1.1855 and 1.19. Break above 1.1920 could be considered a possible sign of a broader correction to min 1.2085, and break above that could be some good confirmation of even larger correction which could go up to 1.24 to 1.27 (there is a case in which a Flat from July low could be in play, with running B @ 1.1639 and next C target from 1.24 to 1.3 which could finish larger degree second leg of the drop from beginning of the '05).
Needs a break below 1.1760<>45 support area to ease the upward pressure, and that could be a good indication of a possible continuation down to 1.15/14.

GBP
Should be contained below 1.7455 and 1.7527. Break above could significantly increase possibility of seeing larger correction taking place to 1.78/1.82
Need a drop below 1.726 to ease the upward pressure.
I still don't consider possible reversal is in place.

On the weekly charts of both EUR and GBP, possibility of a larger correction goes up to 1.2150/70 on EUR and 1.773 on GBP but less likely, although there is a nice divergence on both charts and on the GBP that divergence development shows slightly bigger chance of a broader correction (or reversal) up.

JPY
Made a high @ 121.38 just few pips above my target @ 121.31 and it is now into the possible reversal zone but I believe it has not started to reverse yet. Will be trading above 120.31/16 and if breaks below I would not expect to go below 119.4.
Next targets above as posted in prev. msg.

CAD
don't have a proper targets at the moment, but just a brief one.
On continuation down the min target should be around 1.1505 / 1.1377 / 1.1214 or in a slightly different version 1.1534 / 1.26 / 1.08
Needs to break above 1.1974 to invalidate what now seems a more probable pattern, and that is - drop from the May '05 being a IM wave continuation of the larger degree IM down. (see chart on page 3 msg #52)
Intraday a correction up to 1.1597 is a most probable. Then a clear impulsive development would be a good indication of a continuation down.

Well I'm losing steam and need to step off a while. And since the next week could provide more answers then this one, I could use a little break. So if I'm gone this few days, I count on bear and others to fill the gap. Safety nets in place...

Good luck to all of you
ID

Nothing much to add to previous. (see the above comment first)

USDX now has a critical support @ 90.67 and 89.35/25
Gold overshot the above targets and now it seems to be going to above 562 possibly as far as 594. Not positive for USD.
Crude contained at the mentioned resistance for now and break below 58.7 and 58.2 would ease the pressure up.

EUR 1.1898 is the critical resistance... on break to 1.2049 to 1.2094
break above that would open to 1.24 and above.

GBP most probably to top 1.7728 to 1.7787

JPY 120.37 to 119.68 break below that to 117/113/110

ID