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10-15-04, 04:30 PM
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 Pete's Ideas Hi everyone, I'm looking at wave patterns in the euro starting from 1989. As we all know wave cycles work in 5 waves up and 3 corrective waves down ( A, B, C ) If these wave patterns are correct, we should be looking for the top of current correction wave 'b' This will start major decline 'C' . This should be vailid till we take out the high and move beyond 1.2927 . Last edited by psperos; 10-18-04 at 01:19 PM. |
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10-16-04, 11:38 PM
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| How do you derive at the trendline right above b? What if the distance from a to b is getting bigger and making a double top at 5 or even move higher than 5? How do you know that there will be a move down at b? Is it just an assumption, since I can see no signs for a decline at b to make a wave c from looking at your chart?           |
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10-17-04, 12:07 AM
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| I won't answer for psperos, but I would like to say that no one ever knows what's going to happen next in a financial market. Elliot Wave Theory for me is interesting from an after-the-fact observation perspective, but I've never thought about using it to construct a trading system. I'm not big on trying to forecast. I just take positions based on the statistical likelihood that a simple set of conditions might precede a move in one direction or the other. It's the tactics you apply consistently in real time after entering trades that make the difference, in my opinion. I see so many posts that reflect people trying to find that magical indicator that will assure their wealth. Picking an indicator to trigger longs or shorts is the easy part. It's all about what you do once each trade is on. That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it. Last edited by autofx; 10-17-04 at 12:55 AM. |
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10-18-04, 01:11 PM
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| Quote:
B can top anywhere from here to 1.2927. If this is the outcome then the move down will start at the most unexpected time and area. that being said, The strategy is this. Right now i'm just going to add shorts on rallies till 1.2927 is taken out. As of now, i'm short at 2500 , with a stop at 2551. If i get stopped out, ill short again higher. If we move lower here, i will lighten up positions as we get closer to short term supports, and add on bounces to resistances, with proper stops. It's not going to be a straight shot down, but i'm going to trade in a style thats focused on the down side till something more serious happens. |
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10-18-04, 01:17 PM
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| Bernfriedd : I finally see what line you were talking about. i thought you were talking about the wave lines as trend lines... anyways here's a closer look at the line am looking at. |
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10-23-04, 12:24 AM
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| I'm not sure what your target is for B, but if it keeps rising at the same rate that it has been, it should find its top at about 1.28 next week. I find median lines (Andrew's pitchfork) usually works well for forecasting these things. It's about 90% accurate on the higher time frames. Last edited by forextrades; 10-23-04 at 12:29 AM. |
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10-23-04, 12:30 AM
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| Euro Weekly: Last edited by forextrades; 10-24-04 at 02:09 AM. |
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10-23-04, 01:05 PM
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| i have been looking at this line lately. It never held too much resistance in the past ( before the yearly highs) but it matches with your 1.2800 number perfectly. this's a very strong up move. it's possible the euro could just blow through if there's some bad us data this week. In any event, i want to try and stick to my play till that actually happens though. I got stopped out this week. I'm going to try and re-short next week with low leverage and a stop somewhere above the yearly highs. Ill see how long that lasts for me.. If i get stopped out at that point, then the wave count is wrong and my idea is off... |
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10-23-04, 03:07 PM
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| Auto, Basically I still believe we might be in that B wave, and eventually C will play out. If C plays out it will be a major decline that would be more profitable for me than going long here. To make my idea of a C wave invalid we would need to make new highs on the euro. In this case I would be stopped out. This is the thing. I don’t see resistance till 2770-2800-20, then resistance would be at the high for a possible double top. So I have 2 technical areas that would allow for a major or minor reversal creating a C wave or double top. . At this point my risk is 350 pips( maybe less) to make over 1200 pips. If I wait till about 750 or 800 to short (I most likely will) them my risk is about 200 pips. Right now I’m in cash. I doubt myself at this point because this is a very very powerful up move. It’s happening very fast off little information and a lot of speculation - that’s what scares me, but at the same time makes me more speculative of a coil for a larger decline. I’m watching closely the correlation at the USD EURO and the DOW. The big difference in this run up to last years is that over the past month or so we have lost correlation with the dollar and the Dow and the fed has been raising rates. This allows me to assume one will give. Either the dow will continue to break lower for the rest of the year and dollar will eventually bounce (85?), Or the market will pick up, dollar will continue to fall. Right now we are in a downward spiral in both because of oil speculation. The current dow decline has also lead to bond buying which lowers the yields and expectations of rate hikes thus putting pressure on the dollar. I believe this will all reverse. The equity markets will continue to fall. After elections, the next rate hike and employment numbers I believe the dollar will end up bouncing and so will longer term expectations for rate hikes as bonds start to sell off. The oil gain will slow down as margin requirements on speculation will increase and a lower consumption of heating oil than most expected this year. The fed will raise rates at every rate hike till 3 or 3.5%. They will do this to maintain stability in CONFIDENCE as long as economic indicators are slightly worse to flat and oil shows some signs of consolidation or small correction. Oil is just not going to go back to the way it was, but I don’t think it will seriously impact the economy till 80-100 a barrel. If bush gets elected I think he will push again to drill in Alaska on the basis of oil costs. In any event, all I need is for that C wave to start regardless if those economic predictions happen or not. We have lot of things coming out over the next few weeks. Employment, elections and rate decision. Last edited by psperos; 10-23-04 at 03:12 PM. |
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10-23-04, 04:23 PM
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| Peter...........a chart of Eur/Usd Monthly from a week ago... Quote:
1.28<>1.2750 is currently the South Time/Price Apex down from the 92 High...with the new Candle for November fast approaching...>1.27<>1.2650 becomes that Time Apex...if Oct.'s Monthly Candle implodes with a move South to a test/break of 1.24 it will change the Dynamic from green to red...and maintain the South Time/Price Apex from the 92 High...green channel. Great Analysis. |
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