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[Pip Diddy]

The pair was able to rise and close above its 38% Fib line. This was a big deal because it had to go through the blue 100 SMA and pink 50 EMA in order to accomplish this. All these areas were resistance points. All it took were a couple of words from Trichet and the pair pretty much sliced through them though. Now that same 38% Fib line is immediate support, and we might as well thrown in the 100 SMA and 50 EMA for good measure. Immediate resistance is its purple 200 SMA.

That 200 SMA might be a tough cookie to crack. If the pair is able to close above it and also its 50% Fib line, I look for it to at least retest its recent high and even its 76% Fib line.

Off course, if the pair breaks down and closes below its 38% Fib line and the black rising trend line, then I’d look for it to fall back down to its previous support at the 24% Fib line.

[Pip Diddy]

The pair has hit resistance at the top of its descending channel. It looks like it’s headed back down at least to its top Fibinnel line. Look at the RSI. Notice how RSI temporarily broke above its falling trend line. It looks like RSI is falling back under the trend line which leads me to believe this pair is headed south.

But not so fast! Japan’s central bank starts a two-day meeting tomorrow to discuss whether to abandon their “quantitative easing” (QE) policy they adopted way back in 2001 to prevent a humongous bank crisis and fight worsening deflation. If this policy is removed, it brings Bank of Japan a step closer to also abandoning their current ZIRP (zero interest policy). That’s right, if you didn’t know Japan’s interest rate is at 0%. I need to get a BOJ credit card.

Anyways, we all know what happens when interest rates are set to rise or at least the perception of rising…the currency strengthens. This is why the Yen has been rising the past week. And if BOJ does decide to end their QE policy, look for the pair above to drop like rock. BUT, all of this stuff going on right now is pure speculation.

The market has even priced in a strong possibility of a policy shift. Boy oh boy, if nothing comes out of this week except “we’re keeping things the same”, look for this pair to skyrocket! I’m predicting at least back up to the 120.00 level. Maybe more. Think about it, if most people are already in a short position (like me), and yen negative news comes out, who else is left (buyers) and think about all those sellers who either want to get the hell out of their trade or get stopped out. All this activity will just push this pair upward.

[lamode]

Hi Pip Diddy, are you looking to close your short position now?


it has bulled 200 pips to 118 in the past 2 days and moving sideway today, there is a chance to 120 as you said, but i dont think that is going to happen without pullback.

I believe there will be a pullback to to 117.5 zone before next bull. i am looking to sell at 119.00 ~ 119.25 level tonight.

Good luck.

[Pip Diddy]

This pair seems to be trading in ascending channel. Resistance right now is the bottom Fibinnel while support is obviously the bottom trend line of the channel. I expect the pair to basically trade between the 24% Fib line and the channel bottom this week. This gives it about a 270 pip range to trade within which looks about right. The pair is near the bottom of the channel and if it does manage to break down below it, I can see it possibly falling to its purple 200 SMA.

[Pip Diddy]

This chart is pretty straightforward. I applied good ol’ Fibonacci retracement levels and it looks like the 62% Fib line is holding as immediate support. If this support holds, I look for the pair to rise and test resistance at its 50% Fib line at 1.1980 and even 1.2000. If the support can’t hold, then I’ll look for the pair to fall down to its 76% Fib line at the 1.1800 level.

[Pip Diddy]

This pair is fighting its pink 50 EMA right now. It wants to go up but the pink 50 EMA and blue 100 SMA won’t let it. Looking at this chart, the pair could head either way. If the 50 EMA and 100 SMA hold as resistance, I look for a fall back to its double beezy (bottom) around the 115.50 area. If the resistance fails, I look for a rise back up to its triple teezy (top) at 119.00.

[Pip Diddy]

I currently see this pair as range-bound between 1.7624 and 1.7230. I’ve applied Fibonacci retracement levels on this sideways channel. Notice how the different Fib lines act as effect support and resistance levels. The pair was able to break and close above its 76% Fib line…again. Notice what happened last time. A bunch of spinning tops/doji formed and back down it went. Will this happen again???

[Pip Diddy]

This pair has managed to close below its purple 200 SMA. If it continues to fall, it will face significant support around there area containing the pink 50 EMA, blue 100 SMA, and orange ascending trendline. Keep an eye on this area this week. If the pair is able to break and close below this, I’m betting the farm and shorting.

The oscillators are giving off bearish signals. The MACD shows a bearish crossover. Stochastics also shows a bearish crossover inside the overbought region as well as beginning to fall back below 80.