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[mishak]

Now after Bush's second term is set, the long term strategy for next 4 years - short USD against any other ccy.

Opening long USD is out off the table. On every spike - sell it, close on reverse (according to your temperament or time frame or individual style), no open position for the correction period - wait for next spike, and so on.

Take care and have fun

[autofx]

I think you're partly right.

The Bush/Greenspan economic policies give warm fuzzies in
the short run but will probably prove disastrous. US stock market
bulls are kidding themselves, with the exception of a small
number of unique stocks.

The economic fundamentals for shorting USD are well known,
and they are sound in my view. When we finally have to pay the
piper for monstrous government and private debt, it isn't going to
be pretty. Many are predicting a horrific bear market in the US,
and the more it is dragged out, the more painful it will be.

For my part, I will seek to profit from USD up and down swings
regardless of who is in the White House. I certainly won't be
surprised if more profits come from USD shorts than longs.

[dwt1020]

Originally posted by mishak
Now after Bush's second term is set, the long term strategy for next 4 years - short USD against any other ccy.

Opening long USD is out off the table. On every spike - sell it, close on reverse (according to your temperament or time frame or individual style), no open position for the correction period - wait for next spike, and so on.

Take care and have fun

This has been the sentiment long before the election and will remain.. The election had no effect....

As for the condolences, IMHO, we'll need them Less with Bush than with Kerry...

There was a poll......Anybody but Bush...

"Anybody" 60% Bush 40%....

Given Bush won, I think the results speak for itself...

d

[autofx]

Bush will have his short second-term honeymoon, but then the
gravity of some of the problems the US is facing will become
more apparent to more people.

Still, the currency pairs will fluctuate. It's not like USD is going
straight down with no corrections from here on.

[dwt1020]

Originally posted by autofx
[, but then the
gravity of some of the problems the US is facing will become
more apparent to more people.

[/B]

I'm curious, what are these problems and just how grave are they?


d

[dwt1020]

We have been here before and will be here again....

[Iris]

Below is an excerpt from the Statement released by the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers in Florida...Febuary 2004....

The global economic recovery has strengthened significantly since our meeting in Dubai and risks have diminished. Growth projections for 2004 have been revised upward to their highest in three years. Fiscal and monetary policies have helped bring about these welcome changes.

Yet much more remains to be done. The pace of growth among our economies remains uneven. In our Agenda for Growth initiative, we emphasize supply-side structural policies that increase flexibility and raise productivity growth and employment. Today we released a progress report on our Agenda for Growth. This agenda and sound fiscal policies over the medium term are key to addressing global current account imbalances. We outlined strategies for sustained medium-term fiscal consolidation as economies recover. International trade is vital; we call for further efforts and for countries to take the steps to resume the Doha round, which is pivotal to global growth and the alleviation of world poverty.

We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely and cooperate as appropriate. In this context, we emphasize that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas that lack such flexibility to promote smooth and widespread adjustments in the international financial system, based on market mechanisms.

Global Monetary Policy within the framework of the Agenda for Growth intiative will determine the Core Fundamental factors affecting Global Monetary/Economic Policy...

the G7 defines and directs Global Monetary Policy.

the Ebb and Flow of Global Exchange Rates are G7 Monetary Policy...the Real Fundamentals.

And Congratulations to President Bush and Senator Kerry for stirring and inspiring a Historic Election Vote in American Political History...and for fulfilling the Principles of a Democratic Society....

...the Vote and Will of a Free Peoples.

[novice]

America may have voted for Bush but the world may vote against the US Dollar?

[dwt1020]

Originally posted by novice
America may have voted for Bush but the world may vote against the US Dollar?

I'm not sure what you mean by that..

The value of any currency has more to do with economics than with politics, although they are not completely mutually exclusive.

The value of the dollar has been much higher and much lower than it's current levels and it had nothing to do with Bush then.

The world and it's economies are always changing and always will change. Just the other day when China raised it's interested rates for the first time in many years and we experienced a 130 pip spike, something unheard of only a few years ago. Don't be surprised to see China become the one and only super power in the next 40 to 50 years and the USA might then become another also ran...

Besides, there is always two sides to every story. Depending upon which side of the pond you reside, a weaker dollar isn't necessary a bad thing.


david

[psperos]

I agree with a lot of the fundamental arguments. Fundamentals look negative. I consider them starting to turn flat. This is not new news though. A lot of this talk has been going on for years. I can’t tell you how long I have been hearing about Oil to 100 gold to 800, dollar crash, large deficit, super melt down on and on… I would think a lot of the worst has possibly been priced in. If not, then target is USD 80.

Right now, especially after this election, people are so sure of a dollar crash that it probably can’t happen this year or next. I wouldn’t be surprised if the USD bottomed out here and bounced for half a year.

As far as politics go, I personally think bush will focus more on the economy these next 4 years than he has in the past.

USD shorts are at the highest levels in 2 years… maybe longer… the cot chart I have does not go back that far. When the reversal happens, it will happen very violently.

[James]

Originally posted by psperos
USD shorts are at the highest levels in 2 years… maybe longer… the cot chart I have does not go back that far. When the reversal happens, it will happen very violently.

EUR: The close rise above 1.2600 last week encouraged another strong rise in net longs to record high levels with this week's close near 1.2800 expected to see longs maintained next week.

Time to go with the trend or to look for a reversal?

...or both maybe...?

I am short euro 1.2822 with SAR above 1.2850.

[gregh285]

hi james,
is that a TF trade?

[Iris]

Fundamental shifts occur when the prevailing wisdom contradicts with current Market Positioning...

Double Bottom at 84.50 to North 90<>91.50........or

South Break at 84 to test/break Alltime Lows at 80 basis.

USD shorts are at the highest levels in 2 years… maybe longer… the cot chart I have does not go back that far. When the reversal happens, it will happen very violently.

Were now going to find out how...Weak is Weak in USD.

[psperos]

Originally posted by James




Time to go with the trend or to look for a reversal?

...or both maybe...?

I am short euro 1.2822 with SAR above 1.2850.

James, I think it's both. Play the trend with a very sharp eye.

I'm actually in the same trade as you. Short at 1.2821 , my stop is 860. If that gets hit, i'll wait to see what happens with the nubmers this friday before making another trade.

[mishak]

Well, i've told u. EUR near 1.29, CAD approaching 1.20.
Unless smth comes out tomorrow on Japan leading indicators, Europ Industrial Production and of course USA non-farm payrolls, the market will move on (USD down).

With so close election race, the big money could not anticipate the result. The losers will have to react. Usually it happens on the next week after the event. Will see.
Probably the chance to take a good profit then.

Take care and have fun