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11-05-04, 01:02 PM
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When you read things like that you have to take into considerations that persons PERSONAL opinion and motivations. There is always someone spouting some point of view that sounds good at the same time, it really just depends upon what color your glasses are or side of the pond you reside..  From AP "" "French President Jacques Chirac said Friday he was "a little bit worried about the weakness of the dollar" and how it could affect European exports and the economy. He hinted that the European Union (news - web sites) should take action. "This should provoke certain reactions on our part," Chirac added. He declined to elaborate. However, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany — whose economic recovery has been fueled by strong export growth — played down concerns over the currency's strength. Schroeder told reporters at an EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, that he sees no reason for "serious concern," adding that the exchange rate "is not yet dramatic." "" You'd think these two would have the same view of the same data given their common positions and common interest, but they don't..... Also from AP... "Commerzbank analyst Christoph Balz said he expected to see the euro rise as high as $1.31 but to settle lower in the long term." However I've read other analysis from other banks that put the top at 135.00 by years end...... To me it really doesn't matter as "" I try and be completely amoral, just looking to be on the right side of the market. "" gl & gt.. d |
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11-08-04, 08:12 PM
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| Sentiment Love all this negative sentiment. Don't bet against America. Looks like a good contrarian set up in the making! As for "condolences"?, Freedom and democracy has spoken. I didn't see any gun toteing thugs at the voting polls this election. We had to make some clear choices. No news story crossed my desk about someone blowing themselves and others up in a voting line. I've been around very little but I just can't imagine living anywhere else!!! Living free and I have the right to keep and bear arm so if Washington does get out of hand the Spirit of '76 will rise again. The price of Liberty is vigilance. Still enjoying, "One Nation Under God" here. Granted, not as close to God as it's founding days. Asbestos suit is on so flame away if you must !           |
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11-08-04, 10:00 PM
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| Not entirely! But sentiment is extremly important. Especially extreme sentiment |
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11-08-04, 10:32 PM
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| Oh, I remember inflation alright! Jimmy Carter brought a lot of it on many years ago. Right now the inflation index is nothing like then. If it wasn't for the oil prices and subsequent inflationary results of increasing manufacturing costs, the inflation picture would be even better. As one rather rambunctous poster (elsewhere) has said, "Oil for blood, in my name". I don't go that far! I am supporting less dependancy on forign oil but I've been told we Americans get most of our oil from Canada! I saw a percentage breakdown on it a couple months ago. Think I'll look it up again for current figures. |
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11-08-04, 11:16 PM
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| I trade Forex purely technical. Short or long depending on my chosen indicators and resulting set ups. I set a trailing stop but will take 12 to 15 pips in many situations. If the move goes strong then I let a trailing stop follow with automatically adjusted increments. Some trades will go days (rare fortune) some an hour. I particularly like to scalp short pull backs on the trend. I find it easier to see the intermediate extremes of the move with my method than the resuming of the trend point. This is why most of my trades will be short in time, 15 to 30 pip but high percentage of success and low pip losses. Has to do with last rejected high, RSI (short look back), Stoch. with uncommon parameters and MAs with Bollinger. In side trending market I've found a MACD setup with signal that is trustworth as well. I prefer the USD/EUD and the CAD/USD pairs. I watch the Yen but it doesn't seem to conform to my needs enough. |
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11-10-04, 12:31 PM
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| Sure makes me wish I'd have ignored all that advice about picking tops and bottoms.. Autofx, I can't seem to find the thread where you describe your trading strategy. Would you kindly point me to it... Thanks in advance d How well does it work in these types of markets..???? |
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11-10-04, 01:02 PM
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| dwt1020 I'll let the "how well" question be answered by the track record as posted on buff's thread in coming months (assuming he's willing to maintain it that long; if not, I'll take over). I'll direct you here to read about my strategy. Please see the second post in that thread. All the best, Bob Last edited by autofx; 11-10-04 at 01:07 PM. |
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11-10-04, 04:41 PM
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Euro at or near multi decade highs, gold at or near multi decade highs what more do you want? Markets don't move in straight lines either. But over the long term especially months and years IMHO and must stress that is just my uneducated, uninformed, unsolicited, unpaid opinion the "USD is only going down from here" especially against gold and other tangibles (e.g. oil, copper, lead ect). With the level of debt (both public and private) it will be very difficult for another Volker Saturday Night Special (i.e. drastically cut the money supply and in tern send interest rates to 15% +) to help the USD as per the 1970's and early 80's when the USD drastically fell in value especailly against tangibles. |
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11-10-04, 05:08 PM
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| novice, I keep politics out of my trading 100%. However, I'm not so sure about lack of political motivation in many of the calls I've been seeing. Long term outlook based on fundamentals that are plain to see: yes, USD should head down, down, down. But the pace and pattern with which it does so will baffle many. Last edited by autofx; 11-10-04 at 06:05 PM. |
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11-10-04, 05:32 PM
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The problem it seems you are trying make something out of Bush being re-elected...this" You say "" America may have voted for Bush but the world may vote against the US Dollar?"" as though it was an anti- bush anti-american thing and if Kerry had been elected the world would Vote for the dollarand it would be headed back up.....It's nothing more than economics. If you look at the chart I posted you'll the US $ was WORSE off about 12 years ago, and then again about 12 years before that. We've been here before and we'll be here again perhaps in another 12 years.......So what's Your point... GL & GT d |
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11-10-04, 06:59 PM
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| For example a lot of money from the Gulf States used to flow into the US financial markets. Largely because of politics this money no longer is flowing into the US financial markets (Remember when Al-Jezzeria got kicked out of the NYSE?) Would a Kerry win have reversed this flow? Probably not but a Bush win will likely see an increasing amount of Middle East oil revenue end up in the Dubai, Swiss and European financial markets as opposed to the US financial markets. Less money flowing into the US means that the USD is less bid, if the USD is less bid on balance it is more likely to fall. No value judgement, no good or bad, no anti-anything, just how I see cause and effect. Politics having an effect on money flows and hence exchange rates? A 12-year trend is enough for me! LOL |
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11-10-04, 07:14 PM
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| You still have no point to justify your orignal comments. Your examples are micro economic issues to explain macro economic issues... Your orignal comment was simply out of line and anti-bush and anti-american. d |
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11-10-04, 07:19 PM
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| No it was not It was no different than saying if Latham won the Australian election it may have put pressure on the AUD due to a change of leader? If Latham was elected and the AUD fell it would have meant that: The Australian voter would have voted for Latham But the world (as represented by the forex markets) would have voted against the AUD (by selling) Anyway it was not meant to mean anything much certainly not a slight and I won't say anything more. |
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