Time for USD ????

[Smurf1976]

Agree about USD bottom.

I think that selling AUD / buy USD makes a lot of sense since Australia has a current account deficit of... wait for it... 7.1% of GDP!!! AUD is very near historic highs which have previously led to sharp declines.

And it just keeps getting worse with imports booming and export industry, particularly coal which is Aus' number 1 export, running to capacity. Add to that the country has a bursting housing bubble (prices are actually falling by 10% plus in major cities) and faltering oil production is adding to future imports.

The domestic economy is showing increasing signs of weakness which raises doubts about future interest rate rises. The Reserve Bank is at odds with the government over that issue in an increasingly public manner.

As if that wasn't enough, the country has an increasingly chronic shortage of skilled people - builders, plumbers, electricians, doctors, even labourers are scarce in some parts. Basic infrastructure such as water, transport systems and particularly electricity is under stress too which hinders industry growth and makes an increse in exports more difficult.

The only good point for Australia is the booming commodity prices. But if there is a massive deficit with a commodities boom then what would happen if prices reverse which, if the USD is to rise, is at least a possibility?

Other countries in a broadly similar, albeit less dramatic, position include New Zealand and to a lesser extent the UK.

[20pipsaday]

smurf, I think we have spoken about this before

I completely agree with you, its just the timing that is going to be hard

I am thinking of going options on this one

[Smurf1976]

I think you are right on all points there!

I forgot who it was I was having this discussion with before...

I have now exited my long AUD / short USD position waiting to see what happens.

[20pipsaday]

did you see how insanely high the spec longs on AUD are?

absolute record numbers of spec longs, like 50% more than previous tops at .8000


so if the market doesnt significantly break .8000 soon, all these longs are going to have no choice but to unwind......

[Bond]

Originally Posted by 20pipsaday

did you see how insanely high the spec longs on AUD are?

absolute record numbers of spec longs, like 50% more than previous tops at .8000


so if the market doesnt significantly break .8000 soon, all these longs are going to have no choice but to unwind......

hI 20

Regardigng your above post does that mean that you know how to gauge th volume of longs or shorts on a particular pair, if so can u pls tell me how and give me some details. I would appreciate it ..thanks ......im a short term trader too and have traded for a few months now......i too have the same goal ..20 pips a day so if u could share with me some of your strategies and the indicators which you use.....i would appreciate it as well.....thanks a lot .....bond

[20pipsaday]

hi my name is all wrong, i trade long term trades now, mostly weeks or months, I am actually going to open a new moneytec account today, I cant stand my handle anymore


but i can help you with currency positioning somewhat, you can look at the COT market positioning to see where traders positions are (search in google)

this wont tell you what the spot market or derivative market is positioned of course, but it is at least somewhat of a gauge

BTW earning 20 pips a day is a completely unrealistic goal, and unless you trade at extremely low margin (like 1:1 leverage) you will blow out your account sooner or later if you try..... or take some serious losses which will make any trader give up or start trading badly....

In fact in my years of trading FX I have come full circle, the less you trade the better, the spreads on trades from brokers is what kills everyone in the end.

Only other way I have seen people consistently make money is news trading, and that is much harder now

Anyways thats just my experience.

[midastrader]

Ah...my Greenback will appreciated.

[20pipsaday]

AUDUSD just never dies

back into the .79s again

every time I think the collapse is coming, buyers emerge

perhaps a break of over 80 is coming and is also what is needed to suck in the last round of buyers? , should take trade deficit over 8%? soon?