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[Summerset]

Happy upcoming 2010.

I am looking to trade yen & Dollar strength over the coming intermediate term period. I expect equities to be going
down soon, and this will drag all pairs down against the yen in a correlated manner.

My Technical view is elaborated in successive pages of the attached
PDF.


All Elliot Counts shown are reasonably CCi verified.

There is also a fundamental view, as to why I think, Equities will be going down. It has to do with John Mauldin's view
as posted in one of his newsletters. (I can mail a link to his archives for interested parties).

According to Mauldin, because interest rates on the USD are at 0.25%. The carry trade has switched from yen related
pairs to dollar related pairs. Meaning, investors have been borrowing in dollars to fund purchase of stocks on leverage
again.

Because the recession is technically over, and Not Fundamentally over (meaning the primary cause for the recession
Is still very much alive, and being tempered with through FED policies), any coming statistical drop in recovery
numbers, will act as catalyst for investors to quickly cover stocks purchased on leverage, causing a run on the dollar.
(The borrowed currency in which such purchases have been made). The dollar will then Soar, together with the yen.
The same effect occurred in the summer of 2007, and caused all yen pairs to fall spectacularly hard on abrupt yen
Demand. This is clearly visible as W-3 down on the Euro yen Daily chart, shown on the attached PDF.

As a secondary resonating effect, I expect that we will be seeing a smaller factual of the grand triple top shown on the
Euro yen daily, which marked end of Grand W-2, and fall into a spectacular W-3. Only this time round it will be a
smaller factual of multiple H&S formation, marking end of W-4, and fall into a tranculated W-5.

I believe, since the Dubai mini crises, both Dow, and Euro yen, have been lingering exhausted at high levels for some
time now, unable to make any more meaningful advances, and preparing instead for this fall.

Trade Safe
Ahmad Tawfik
CFT e

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Happy upcoming 2010.

I am looking to trade yen & Dollar strength over the coming intermediate term period....

Trade Safe
Ahmad Tawfik
CFT e

Its now time to buy into Dollar strenght.

The instrument of my choice will be the USDCAD. I been observing this very closely for some time time, and its been lagging the Eurodollar move. Moreover with summer coming, Oil prices (strictly in my opinion) will not be able to sustain > $70-80/Br levels.

There are voices in the US adminstration calling for tighter monetary policy now so that longterm deficits do not run totally astray. Including reimbursement of bailout money, and very slow infinitismal raising of intrest rates.

The recession problems seem to have momentarily shifted to Europe, as manifest by the Greek crisis. If such problems continue to emerge, requiring bailouts of additional EU members. This should act to weaken the Euro as a reserve currency, and strenghten the Dollar. - At least intermediate term, as long as the recession does not suddenly accelerate (for some unforeseen reasons) in the States.

Technically, I am aiming to buy into a Wave-IV upward correction of the USDCAD. Which really happens to be very misrerably oversold.

Detailed reasons for entry are on the PDF attached below.

For highly leveraged traders, an opportunity has risen to buy the market, with stops < 1.05.

Personally due to high market volatiliy, which causes prolonged corrective wave action, I would recomend to buy the market and keep stops < 1.0350. This is actually the bottom of the last Wave-1 impulse made as shown on the charts of the attached PDF

This is of course a 200 pt stop. However the Trade is going after a 2000 pt move, with the 1st partial profit at 1.15 (1000 pt) away.

I would also advise traders to open several sub accounts with their brokers to be able to compile on the move without need to close proftable positions.

Safe Trading
Ahmad Tawfik
CFT e

[Cyclon]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Its now time to buy into Dollar strength.

The instrument of my choice will be the USDCAD.

Technically, I am aiming to buy into a Wave-IV upward correction of the USDCAD. Which really happens to be very misrerably oversold.

Detailed reasons for entry are on the PDF attached below.

For highly leveraged traders, an opportunity has risen to buy the market, with stops < 1.05.

Personally due to high market volatiliy, which causes prolonged corrective wave action, I would recomend to buy the market and keep stops < 1.0350. This is actually the bottom of the last Wave-1 impulse made as shown on the charts of the attached PDF

I would expect both of those stops to get taken out.

Not to disagree with your methods because they are
standard and yet with such a distance to those stops
perhaps it would be ok to speak up here.

There is a reason. I recently completed my new book.

Now I know this comes as a surprise out of nowhere, but...

It brings the First New Rule for Elliott Wave in 70 Years

The New Elliott Wave Rule is being Distributed free online.
This is a Free downloadable 40 Page PDF Book.

It strips away decades of confusion and difficult counting techniques
which have hobbled the Elliott Wave technician.

It's free no strings or emails but I cannot link to it I don't think.

I am new here so do not want to break any rules.

But a little pause on this and a look see might be good while
your positions are still high. See what you think.