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[Summerset]

Hi Bart,

Remember to take partial profits on Eurodollar now @ around 3470, because today's Breakout level is 3479. And the original Weekly TP level was 3485, so there is no point in leaving money on the table because of a 15 pt difference.

And its also v. important to meet yr weekly objectives constantly in order to be consistently profitable for account growth.

So if the position is splitable - take the partial profits now.

I am still going through yr posts.

Go luck with yr Exam. I find it v. energizing that U have it coming Friday, & yet have the time to follow so many other things.

So take it easy, - as its now only 48hrs away - (the Exam) & BEST of luck with it.

[mister78]

Well, to be for this exam I have studied the less, compared to other exams I have taken here. Jus 5-6h a day for a week. For the las one, Empirical Asset Pricing i spent 2 weeks studying from 12 (noon) until 1.30 am in the library. And still got only 60% of points. Damn hard. This one is just thinking. Mostly assymetric information and moral hazard which result. Principal agent model which i know and some introduction to game theory (normal and extensive form games plus nash and bayes nash equilibrium).
FX is like a drug for me, from time to time I become addicted. Las year before Econometrics exam I just gambled here. I was tired after 2 exams I had just a couple of weeks before and forex was a retreat.

Keep your fingers crossed

[mister78]

Ok, so on my charts euro has definitely broken the resistance on 61.8 Fib on 1985...
This line is now the new support line which will tested next week. And this support will - hopefully - not be broken, .

On the usdchf we may expect testing the resistance again (50 Fib on 2001) and a failure in breaking it (while euro will hold on its support).

I am posting the chart on usdchf to illustrate my guess.

On the chart you will find the same yellow lines (fibs horizontal to 50.0 Fib) as before and the same green up channel as before.

Now, this channel has been abandoned but the new up channel, less steep, will still hold next week. That is the orange channel on the chart. It will let usdchf test the resistance again, and hopefully fail in breaking it.

Then this channel will be abandoned as well (hopefully), and we will have a very steep south channel on usdchf. It will let usdchf break the support lines, the two red lines on the bottom.

I would recommend to wait now until usdchf reverses to test the resistance and start selling it then. Hopefully it will not break the resistance.

Keep in mind that my drawings might not be correct, lines might be moved left or right, up or down. Also, it is still possible (but unlikely) that the resistance will be broken.

OK, after the exam Im taking a ferry home and will stay there for a week. Im terrified with the exam tomorrow, its all a matter of making a best use of that knowledge and studies and concentration on questions. I feel a bit distracted though still capable to take it tomorrow.

Good luck, good pips

[Summerset]

WEEKLY:-

Next Week witnesses the 3rd test of the 61 Fork AR. A 3rd test occurs at 3650. Both Monthly & weekly Cci's have room to move to +200 extremes, which almost assures a coming test @ 3650. The faster "Grey" Cci on all time frames (Mn+Weekly+Daily) is running up.

DAILY:-

The daily Cci has broken into a bullish parallel trend that

bounces off the +50/+100 lines.

Having closed partial longs at 3470. We will close full longs at

3650 (if seen before) or/and add to longs at the last high peak made on daily- (See Daily CHART). MONTHLY:-

The last attack on 1.35-45 levels occurred between 1990-95.

According to probable wave counts (which I will not go into here)

There is anticipation of similar action this time around.

This contemplates falls to 2890 levels, and even all the way to 1.2000 by many.

The deciding factor here - is really MOMENTUM. No up or down moves could occur without it.

The monthly Cci is in clear trending configuration unlike the 90-95 era. (See Monthly CHART).

So, unless there is a clear & quick double top formation & fall @

3650. Market waves will unfold in alternating form to these of the 90-95 period. This is most clearly evident from the regular bull candles X ledge ascents sequencing higher since Feb'06, Which sharply contrast with the volatility swings back in 90-95.

Expect the Gold Modulal line to be contested @ 4150, before a fall back to the modual support platform S-1. We intend to make the most of the situation by holding to longs till 4100 levels. And adding at 3350-3450 levels.

Eventhough considered high levels to add at. Past lenghty consolidations point that the market will not yeild low sub 3000 levels to rally from again.

As usual, precise entry /exit position managment will be notified to I TRADE FX clients.

[Summerset]

I have had reservations mailed by some traders regarding the 4100 objective.

The attached chart points out the "Why?", we are holding on for 4100 as a target.

According to some, we are in an ABC correction. Wave B which is playing out now would terminate at some point, and wave C would take over, sending price down to 1400 levels. = (1.618 of total Wave B magnitude going south).

On the attached chart, there was a broadening formation from '90-->'97, which broke out in '97, and reached its ultimate measured target at 0.84 levels.

The Massive tweezer that erupted at 0.84 levels, is actually a 6 candle tweezer formation on an a yearly candle chart. By sheer measurement projections it projects price to FE61.8 at least (See Chart)

Note that price failed to support twice at the FE61.8 objective, fell back and supported on the tweezer top itself, before forming 2 candle ledges- one below & the other above the FE61.8 Resistance, and taking it permenantly out.


Price has now become permenantly supported on the FE61.8. This is an extremely strong support, because if U look more closely at it, its a clear negation of an intial H&S reversal pattern

Having fully supported the FE61.8, the Tweezer's next target is 100% of its inital size = FE100 = 4120

Retraction in the meanwhile will be within the 1st Modual platform shown, and should be seized for 4100 objective.

Our CCi long & mid term momentum graphs as far down as the daily, are all begining to trend in pararell fashion above the zero line - supporting this.

And this is the principal reason a recommendation was issued begining this month to accumlate longs from month open @ 3317.

From the wave prespective, there are other counts that advocate price to be in the 5th wave of an intial 5 wave structure starting from where abouts of the <0.88-0.98> zone. Depending on yr wave count then, wave 5 targets are between 4100 & 4800.

At any rate, we believe that candle language & momentum signs have spoken clearly enough, so let us sit back & enjoy the ride to 4100- and pyramid lower levels if seen

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

As of April 07, the recorded low is 3317.

Technically Eurodollar is in an intermediate (could be 2nd leg of primary uptrend) since begining of 06- See Chart.

If its an intermediate move, price should reject back past the fibs @ 3550-3650.

.......

So its time now to investigate the action at 3550 / 3650 - See PDF attached.

Note that April's monthly candle will close tommorow. And unless something extremely dramatic occurs today, we have a roboust BULL monthly candle.

As outlined in the attached PDF, we estimate that the Daily momentum is now trending bullish on the Cci.

Our bias is for a retraction to occur, - that as specified above for the bull trend to continue - would not fall below fib fans leading up to the 3681 top.

Remember:-
"If its an intermediate move, price should reject back past the fibs @ 3550-3650".- meaning back past such fib fan & down.

The Daily Cci trend graph now being in trending mode, (as narrated in pdf), we will safely accumlate all fib retractions into the April monthly candle.

These are:-
23% @ 3577
38% @ 3521
50% @ 3484
61% @ 3444
78% @ 3394

We will not of course accumlate (buy) them all at once. But one X one on a weekly basis, using the methodology outlined in the attached pdf.

This should allow us to sizably position on each fib level, and bail out with little profits - or even at b/e- if the retraction continues. And hold in full force when the trend re-asserts.

The coming levels to accumlate this week are the <3521-77> area. The stops of course are below 3484. (prefreably 3460).

We always advise to load sizablely, at each level, so as to allow for partial profit collection on the way.

Ultimately, our wave voltility counts project to 3930-->4050- before this wave is over, and a retraction of consequence sets it. Extreme volatility calculations project 4170-4200.

Traders holding longs from 3300 levels should take partial profits at least at current - sub or above 3600 levels.

As there will be a retraction, There is no sense in risking profits, guaging the extent of a retraction.

We will be re-loading anyway.

Personaly - I encourage to set pre-determined exits, - even if this means to miss part of the move. And have taken my profits at 3470 & 3600.

Profitable Trading

[alexandre1647]

Hello Summerset,
Thank you for your hard work, amazing analysis.
Alex.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

we will safely accumlate all fib retractions into the April monthly candle.

These are:-
23% @ 3577
38% @ 3521
50% @ 3484
61% @ 3444
78% @ 3394

We will not of course accumlate (buy) them all at once. But one X one on a weekly basis, using the methodology outlined in the attached pdf.

Thank You Alexandre, and yr always Welcome.
Are U taking the Entries ?
================================================== ===

Update:-
Last week we've accumlated 3545/55/65/75 to 40% of a 10% position size.
This week we will close the 3575/65 at 3670 (or close i-day highs) when seen to compensate for the -ve premuims on the trade.
We will double our holdings at 3545/55- (after releasing the 3565/75 lots). And will attempt to accumlate aggressively to full 10% between 3545--> 3480. Stops below 3450.
The bounce off the 3533 low, wasn't strong. Despite negative NFP numbers.This may mean that technically the ledge still have lower lows to consolidate.

So, We still expect to see same levels re-tested- on a 2nd daily trigger Cci dip - if not newer lows achieved.

It is possible however, that we will not see the lower levels until towards the end of this week- or even into the next week. So We will patiently wait, and add only at our pre-calculated levels, unless 3681 is decisively broken.

Complete preview behind the trade managment is in the attached PDF.

Profitable Trading

[gregorios]

Hi Summeset,

Could u pls post a chart or comment on USD/CAD?

Regards
Gregorios

[alexandre1647]

Thank You Alexandre, and yr always Welcome.
Are U taking the Entries ?

Hello Summerset,
Yes I am holding 3 small buy lots: at 1.3561, 1.3630 (from last week) and at 1.3600 from this week. I am holding also 3 small buy lots on GBP.
Regards,
Alex.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by gregorios

Hi Summeset,

Could u pls post a chart or comment on USD/CAD?

Regards
Gregorios

Sorry for delayed response.

But I will try to post loonie durning coming weekend.

Profitable trading

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by alexandre1647

Hello Summerset,
Yes I am holding 3 small buy lots: at 1.3561, 1.3630 (from last week) and at 1.3600 from this week. I am holding also 3 small buy lots on GBP.
Regards,
Alex.

3561 is Good
U could try to close the 3630&3600 @ 3670 after FMOC today& possibly ECB tommorrow.

As a rule always load longs at the lower range of the weekly volatility <3488-3565>. Regardless of the strenght of any trend, price will always attempt to test any ONE of such lower volatility zones.

So there is really no cause to feel aprehensive about missing the move, and load in the higher sectors.

GOD Bless today.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by alexandre1647

Hello Summerset,
Yes I am holding 3 small buy lots: at 1.3561, 1.3630 (from last week) and at 1.3600 from this week. I am holding also 3 small buy lots on GBP.
Regards,
Alex.

Hello Alex,

I am posting trade managment for the above position today, in the same mechanism as I trade manage my lots. And before I post our Eurodollar weekly update, because I realize how drawdowns weigh on the trader, and cloud trade potential & its successful managment.

I recommend U to procced as follows:-

1- U should be holding longs 3561+3600+3630 = Average 3598. = -74pip drawdown on average per lot from current price of 3524 = -222pips.

2- U will need to hedge the position, by countering it at a confluence of the daily Eurodollar intraday levels with certain weekly volatility levels. If U are not using a hedging platform let me know, and I can post U a swissdollar weekly volatility calculation to use instead for hedging. I believe I have already mailed U the intraday level chart indicator.

3- Eurodollar weekly volatility levels are posted below.

4- So the hedging works like this:-

a- U open the stops for the current positions, and aim to short 30 lots @ 3566 or 3598, whenever any one of these values coincides with the Eurodollar intraday upper breakout level. (the Green zone).

b- Close the hedge for profit at the day open (Middle of the grey zone).

c- Repeat the process, and close at the bottom of the deep blue upper zone.

d- when seeing 3566- U can of course close yr 3561 position. Also when seeing 3598, U can close yr 3600 position. Re-load longs again at (3418-->3455), by leaving limit buy oirders there, were such levels coincide with the daily Eurodollar breakout low (Green zone) & fluctuation daily low (blue low zone).

e- in this manner U will have correctly ammended yr positions, by closing out the higher lots, and adding at lower zones in the direction of the trend. While at the same time accumilating a buffer of pips with the hedged shorts, incase there are conditions of premature slippage down, and U have to close the high levels.

f- When seeing 3600 & 3630 levels, don't be hesitant, and hold yr longs. Close out at b/e, as U will have already loaded lower - or even if not- there will always be opportunity to long the intraday lows, or intraweek volatility lows. As advised before always add only in the lower weekly volatility section.

g- Again if U don't use a hedging platform. let me know, and I can post U the weekly Swissdollar volatility calculations to hedge with.

h- Remmember - U are hedging levels against one another - regardless of the pairs.

When hedging use only a 25pip stop out of the BR level..

Let me know if anything is Unclear.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Update:-
Last week we've accumlated 3545/55/65/75 to 40% of a 10% position size.
This week we will close the 3575/65 at 3670 (or close i-day highs) when seen to compensate for the -ve premuims on the trade.
We will double our holdings at 3545/55- (after releasing the 3565/75 lots). And will attempt to accumlate aggressively to full 10% between 3545--> 3480. Stops below 3450.
Profitable Trading

Last week we accumlated 3488/95/05/25/35/45 to a full 100% of position now. Position average is 3534. We will take partial 50% of profits @ 3630. Leave 50% as open targets.

We will hedge down from 3630.

And we will add our liquidated longs between 3420 & 3450.

We still see strongly that the retraction will be mild, and that 3420-50 will probably not be seen.

Furthermore, Wave 5 on weekly will unfold to 4050 at least.

Trade managment is as per attached PDF.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Last week we accumlated 3488/95/05/25/35/45 to a full 100% of position now. Position average is 3534. We will take partial 50% of profits @ 3630. Leave 50% as open targets.

We will hedge down from 3630.

Based on an elaborate re-calculation of current wave volatility count, we will amend target to become 3835 for full 100% of position. We will not take any partial profits (cancel 3630)- neither will we hedge at 3630. There will be no need, as it will be counter trend & shallow dips.

We forecast the next wave to take us 381 pts from the low already made @ 3463 = 1.3844.

Profitable Trading