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[alexandre1647]

Hello Summerset,
Amazing analysis as always. I use OANDA for trading and their platform doesn't allow to have at the same time open and closed position for the same currency. If I have the opened buy position and than try to sell for example half of that size, it will just close half of my buy position. I don't know yet how I can use your advice about hedging with OANDA platform. May be I just have to set smaller profits instead hedging.
I try to use your CCI analysis and DELTA. If I am not wrong
DELTA shows uptrend too.
Best regards,
Alex.

[Summerset]

Hello Alex.

As yr not using a hedging platform. I have attached the Swissdollar level matrix which U can use to take long entries - thus effectively hedging yr Eurodollars.

Remember that U are hedging levels against one another- irrespective of the currency pair.

2083 & 2024 are the best options to long at when reaching 3598 & 3630 respectively. - Its all explained on the matrix.

When longing Swiss against the Eurodollar, U will have to use positions of 1.5 :1 in size compared to yr Eurodollar positions.

Use the Intraday levels indicator to make sure the weekly levels have reached intraday lows, and accordingly fine tune entries.

Keep in mind that U will also be taking an added risk (but worth it, if U hedge the lower levels only), as I expect 3630 to break and support on by this week's end. And 3835 to be ultimately seen over the coming 2 weeks.

Let me know if anything is missing or unclear.

All the Best

[BenCapFX]

Hello Summerset,

I must respectively disagree with your assessment of both the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf pairs.

I believe Eur's inability to to sustain a break above 3600 and USD/Chf's inability to break below 2100 at all, coupled with bullish GDP news in Europe over night, a 7.5% jump in Chf retail sales and a dovish US CPI this morning, don't bode well for the Eur in the next couple of weeks.

A rate hike by Trichet & Co. is already priced into the market, imho, and SNB's Roth is already churping about the over valued Franc...his words, not mine.

Of course I might be completely wrong........thats what makes it interesting isn't it.

I'm currently short Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd.....looking for 3450-80 and 9550-90 respectively.

Opinion?

Peace

[golhuntsleep]

Hey Ben, I'm with ya on the short term....and I don't want to put words in summersets mouth but I believe he trades LONGER term than 100 pip turns.....we will trade lower on the euro and pound but then it's break the bank of the dollar bull time........3450 for the euro and 9660 ish for the pound......then start looking up........for like this thread is about....3 month outlooks......how's the trading going? gotta watch these 4th waves.......they are money grabbers.......Dang SS, I just went back and looked at some of your posts.......you say 4050 at least, I have my eye on 4110....how much wave and how much fork are you using??

[Summerset]

Hello Ben,

Fundamentaly, I am biased to see appreciation in Eurodollar futures because:-

1- Back in Dec '04, when Eurodollar topped at 3665. The FED was embarking on a bout of raising rates. And economic expansion was eminent warranting measures to stifle inflation.

Today, 2 1/2 yrs later, and more than half of a 4 1/2 yr business cycle down the road. Sustaining higher rates is taking a heavy toll on expansion, and becoming extremely questionable to say the least.

2- The market, out smarts everyone. And has already fully discounted the futility of further rate hikes on the current economic cycle. I suspect the FED too already knows this. And is further acutely aware that lower dollar costs are needed to fuel volume investments, if any expansion in economic activity is to commence and re-assert Growth at this stage of the market cycle.

Especially more so, as lower Dollar costs against the Euro in particular, would harness growth opportunities away from European markets (where growth seems to be currently headed), and back to the US markets.

3- So Fundamentally, to kick start growth, the FED is knowingly pointing the market towards 1.40 too, but from a position of strength. By raising hell over inflation - they are pointing out that the market is healthy (the way they want it to be), and will sustain further rate increases in the some what extended but forseeable future. While at the same time, they knowingly will allow the dollar to weaken, until an influx of capital inflows are attracted into the markets to jump start growth indicators.

They know what they are doing.

In the meanwhile PPI - CPI- NFP, are all lame ducks throughout this quarter. Don't count on them to move the market much - either way - out of the intraday range- whatever the news is. Feel sure that its already discounted.

Technically all my CCi indicators are pointing to continuation of an uptrend. That's why I am long. Wave counts too (verified ones) are giving very lucrative targets.

Its possible of course that U could see 3480/50 as a retracment. Its only due to the strenght of the trend that we have'nt see it as a retracement so far.

However, to really go short. I would not consider it, until price falls & closes below 3390.

All the very Best.

[alexandre1647]

Hi Summerset,
Thank you for swissdollar level matrix. Could you please explain what stays for some abbreviations, like H, O, L, BR, FL,BD,FH.

Best regards,
Alex.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by alexandre1647

Hi Summerset,
Thank you for swissdollar level matrix. Could you please explain what stays for some abbreviations, like H, O, L, BR, FL,BD,FH.

Best regards,
Alex.

O = the Week's open.
BD = Weekly price noise bands above & below the open. These are the extreme values price should weekly make, when the MAs churn interwined and close together during the week.

FL, & FH, are the fluctuation high & low during the week. When there is no re-assertion of a specific trend during a week, price should make these upper / lower extremes, before swinging back to re-test the open or BD ranges. In essence FH & FL ranges are acheived as MAs breakout from one another (cross or bounce), to make an elongated shell like structure, before falling back again to touch - bouce - or even cross.

BR are the upper & lower weekly breakout ranges. Weekly price Support in these or above them, means that the trend has re-asserted and will continue in the mid term. This occurs when the smaller of the 2 MAs falls back, but instead of crossing below the larger MA - bounces off it to continue higher. Attaining higher price levels in or even above BR ranges.

H,O,L are of course the High, Low, & open values of previous weeks.
Usually volatility is measured on average for a specific trending move. engulfing candle, Tweezer formation- or any other controlling candle formation on the weekly frame.

The whole system is pretty much like using pivot point configuration, or camarilla levels to gauge stenght of trend continuation (by making sure that price has stayed retained in the higher levels), and also to make sure that U pick entries only in the lower levels. Money managment wise, it allows the trader to place volatility stops outside the weekly BR levels, and therefore know precisely- by how much he will need to fund & service a certain position in the coming week.

Best Regards

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by golhuntsleep

....how much wave and how much fork are you using??

Update:
Stops for our longs averaging 3541 have been hit since last week as price droped from the 3608 high.

This week we will begin reloading again from below the 50% retraction till the 78% retraction of the April Monthly candle. <3420-3390>

Our target is initally 3750 & final 4050. (The why's are derived from the wave counts).

CHART/A:- (WEEKLY)
We believe to be in a wave -5, of a 2nd impulse wave in a bull primary.

Intially we expected W-5 to make 3774-44. To match wave 3 in amplitude, and make a 100% extension from wave 3. Currently Wave 5 makes 68% of wave 3. (not 100% - not 62%).

So We still believe Wave-5 will make 3750 (100% of wave-3) but after completing an ABC correction that should take it to 3375 (Detailed on Daily Chart/B).

Our controling fork is clearly shown in Gold on the weekly chart. We have forked the last ABC correction of the 1st impulse wave of the bull primary.

Why?

Because if the 2nd impulse wave is to continue successfully, it needs to test & close above 50% of that ABC correction = the median of the gold fork <3990-4050>

We strongly believe this will play out because of the diagonal / rising wedge that has been gradually rising & consolidating the lower segment of the Gold fork. (shown in blue).

Its taking price of course to the median.

Rising wedges tent to break downwards. We should then see a strong correction at that median <4050>

The extent of the current correction taking place, will be gauged on the weekly by the gold dash rising trend line representing uninterupted continuation of wave 5.

If our analysis in correct, we will be seeing a supporting candle formation at this trend line. And Cci rejection off the impulse wave 2 trend line shown below on the Cci graph.


CHART/B:- (Daily)
On daily, a wave5 of larger degree wave 5 on weekly has completed. And an ABC correction is playing out in a zigzag- that is probably being followed by an expanded flat. This is unfolding into an expanding triangle on 4hr.

1.618 Fib target of B of the expanded flat = 3375.(our re-load platform)

1.618 target of C of the expanded flat = 3750 (our intial target)

There are some discretionary evaluations to the current move:-

1- The Throw- over outside the rising wedge / diamond formation is typical of wave-5s. But could also mean that the wedge has topped, & will break down wards at 78% of the Gold fork AR - instead of the ML.

2- Support at the FE61.8 together with a stong spike back above the gold trend line of wave 5, are vital in the coming 2 weeks. If the ABC corection is to be contained, and our trade to successfully materialize.

3- There is a zero line rejection about to positively effect on daily. That we will be using for entry, and that should give us a good pip buffer, even if the trade turns against our bias.

RECOMENDATION:-

Relong to 100% <3365-3400> Target 3750. Stops 3320.

Contrary opinions regarding the wave counts are welcome.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

1.618 Fib target of B of the expanded flat = 3375.(our re-load platform)

RECOMENDATION:-

Relong to 100% <3365-3400> Target 3750. Stops 3320.

Contrary opinions regarding the wave counts are welcome.

"B" appears to be finishing now on daily.
If the daily candle close today is a morning star, or stronger.
And the down trend line gets supported on - on the hourly (attached chart).
We will raise our buy platform to 3450-60 for 3.5% to target 3750

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

"B" appears to be finishing now on daily.
If the daily candle close today is a morning star, or stronger.
And the down trend line gets supported on - on the hourly (attached chart).
We will raise our buy platform to 3450-60 for 3.5% to target 3750

None of the above matured y'day.

Daily Cci trigger is making a recoverry. And the trend line for wave-5 is not yet broken (being tested) on weekly. The problem with the weekly is that we have not yet touched Wma-20. We would touch it at 3384- all the way down to 3350. That's why we can't rule out dip to <3365-3400>.

The situation on the 4&1hrs appears more promising, were +ve divergences are showing on both to promote a break & close above the down trend line (attached chart below).

We delay our long initation one more day, until the trend line breaks upwards & is supported on, and a new higher high is made. Take yr pick <3480-3500-3535>

When such conditions mature, we load on dips at current levels. If not, we stand limit ready to load at today's i-day low <3408-3365>. (our original intent).

Incidently, Weekly breakout level this week is 3421, & weekly fluctuation low is 3450. (were price is currently hovering). Attempts to base 3420-50, will therefore be seruiosly taken by us to long in, as the Wma-20 continues to crawl up.

Profitable trading

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

None of the above matured y'day.

Today we will commence buying 3437 + 3424 + 3410 to average 1/3 of total position. SL @ 3340 (-85pips on average). Target 3750, & 4050, if we manage to load 3365-3390 levels.

We will not call the adding to longs at lower sub 3400 levels. But its our intent to add to full position in thirds until 3365-55, taking SL to 3320 then to a total risk of 60-65 pts on average.

Profitable Trading

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Today we will commence buying 3437 + 3424 + 3410 to average 1/3 of total position. SL @ 3340 (-85pips on average). Target 3750, & 4050, if we manage to load 3365-3390 levels.

Profitable Trading

UPDATE:-

This week we should be attempting break out upwards from the diagonal (Wedge) shown. (See chart below). Our target 3750 is shown on the upper diagonal line. If we are to go for 4050-4100 targets the upper diagonal line must be broken. Else we close all @ 3750.

3390/65 levels were not seen, & we can raise stops to the 3427 averages now

Profitabloe Trading

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

3390/65 levels were not seen, & we can raise stops to the 3427 averages now

Profitabloe Trading

3390/65 were seen, and our stops were closed even.

We have a negative momentum signal given by the daily CCi failing to close above the ADX. (See attached Chart). This means that we are entering a 2nd leg of a more complex correction sequence.

On the directional volatility scale, there is potential for -ve DI measurements this week to take us to 3265-3276.

Should the correction prove of tripple nature, there is also potential for -ve monthly DI for June to take us to 3189.

There is also a possibility that the Wedge is already breaking downwards.

We are negating this because :-

1- our wave count still shows a wave-5 lacking in this up leg that should equal a wave-1.

2- All current consolidatory corrective action has so far held within the lower median of the fork thrown by the current higher degree wave. (This Chart is not shown here, but will be posted shortly).

3- The daily ADX, is turning at an extreme low. The bounce of the CCi downwards off the ADX, is a standard throw off to divert weak hands. We expect break upwards of wave-5 to coincide with the ADX making an extreme high. (See Chart).

Alebit, before the ADX turns up, there will be minor churns causing a downward throw over in the diagonal to 3265 at least.

Recommendation:-

Long (3265-95) to 2.5% size this week.
Double at 3189, to 5% net.
Hedge longs to be taken at 3265-95 by shorts @ 3445-75 (stops @ 3540), especially if 3445/75 higher levels are seen first.

Profitable Trading

[golhuntsleep]

I'm with ya, this move down is limited...these late thrusts, down in this case, are designed to fool traders into shorts.......then we go up taking thier money.......

[stevie_g]

LOL> That's an interesting way of looking at it. ..