TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

[mister78]

..and at the end I would to post the enlarged daily chart for eurusd.

Im not posting H4 chart because it is imposible - the lines lay to far away from what is on the daily and I cant position them precisly because my broken doesnt have H4 chart from before 2001.

As you can see on the attached daily chart the resistance (refined) has not been yet broken (technically, but logicaly it has been broken as I said earlier).

And to conclude, I have one more thing to say. I apologize for paralizing this thread with my charts. It is owned by a professional, Summerset, who kindly shares his knowledge and experience with all of us. I have learnt a great many things from him, and received great email with indicators, manuals, etc. I started pasting my ideas here, but I am a novice, a nobody on forex. Just got very excited, and that is the explanation. It comes together with sincere apologees for exploiting the hospitality of the owner to the max.extent.

Saying that, I will be silent now, just observe what you paste here. We have the trades set already. It would be good to comment on them after on the weekly basis. I will listen carefully and truely appreciate all you are willing to share here.

high respects!
B.

[mister78]

and the charts are here: the "fresh" usdchf 4H and the "revised" eurusd daily as of today.

[mister78]

...just one last word from me...forgive it, please...but it is really thrilling... make the same analysis on gbpusd, the cable...using the fib fans...and rememebr to place the fibs correctly on the max and min daily bars, after the initial try on monthly and weekly... the picture is just awesome! I cant believe why is that forex market obeys the resistances which origin it the lowest or highest bars recorded 20 years ago

[Summerset]

Hi Bart,

Remember to take partial profits on Eurodollar now @ around 3470, because today's Breakout level is 3479. And the original Weekly TP level was 3485, so there is no point in leaving money on the table because of a 15 pt difference.

And its also v. important to meet yr weekly objectives constantly in order to be consistently profitable for account growth.

So if the position is splitable - take the partial profits now.

I am still going through yr posts.

Go luck with yr Exam. I find it v. energizing that U have it coming Friday, & yet have the time to follow so many other things.

So take it easy, - as its now only 48hrs away - (the Exam) & BEST of luck with it.

[mister78]

Well, to be for this exam I have studied the less, compared to other exams I have taken here. Jus 5-6h a day for a week. For the las one, Empirical Asset Pricing i spent 2 weeks studying from 12 (noon) until 1.30 am in the library. And still got only 60% of points. Damn hard. This one is just thinking. Mostly assymetric information and moral hazard which result. Principal agent model which i know and some introduction to game theory (normal and extensive form games plus nash and bayes nash equilibrium).
FX is like a drug for me, from time to time I become addicted. Las year before Econometrics exam I just gambled here. I was tired after 2 exams I had just a couple of weeks before and forex was a retreat.

Keep your fingers crossed

[mister78]

Ok, so on my charts euro has definitely broken the resistance on 61.8 Fib on 1985...
This line is now the new support line which will tested next week. And this support will - hopefully - not be broken, .

On the usdchf we may expect testing the resistance again (50 Fib on 2001) and a failure in breaking it (while euro will hold on its support).

I am posting the chart on usdchf to illustrate my guess.

On the chart you will find the same yellow lines (fibs horizontal to 50.0 Fib) as before and the same green up channel as before.

Now, this channel has been abandoned but the new up channel, less steep, will still hold next week. That is the orange channel on the chart. It will let usdchf test the resistance again, and hopefully fail in breaking it.

Then this channel will be abandoned as well (hopefully), and we will have a very steep south channel on usdchf. It will let usdchf break the support lines, the two red lines on the bottom.

I would recommend to wait now until usdchf reverses to test the resistance and start selling it then. Hopefully it will not break the resistance.

Keep in mind that my drawings might not be correct, lines might be moved left or right, up or down. Also, it is still possible (but unlikely) that the resistance will be broken.

OK, after the exam Im taking a ferry home and will stay there for a week. Im terrified with the exam tomorrow, its all a matter of making a best use of that knowledge and studies and concentration on questions. I feel a bit distracted though still capable to take it tomorrow.

Good luck, good pips

[Summerset]

WEEKLY:-

Next Week witnesses the 3rd test of the 61 Fork AR. A 3rd test occurs at 3650. Both Monthly & weekly Cci's have room to move to +200 extremes, which almost assures a coming test @ 3650. The faster "Grey" Cci on all time frames (Mn+Weekly+Daily) is running up.

DAILY:-

The daily Cci has broken into a bullish parallel trend that

bounces off the +50/+100 lines.

Having closed partial longs at 3470. We will close full longs at

3650 (if seen before) or/and add to longs at the last high peak made on daily- (See Daily CHART). MONTHLY:-

The last attack on 1.35-45 levels occurred between 1990-95.

According to probable wave counts (which I will not go into here)

There is anticipation of similar action this time around.

This contemplates falls to 2890 levels, and even all the way to 1.2000 by many.

The deciding factor here - is really MOMENTUM. No up or down moves could occur without it.

The monthly Cci is in clear trending configuration unlike the 90-95 era. (See Monthly CHART).

So, unless there is a clear & quick double top formation & fall @

3650. Market waves will unfold in alternating form to these of the 90-95 period. This is most clearly evident from the regular bull candles X ledge ascents sequencing higher since Feb'06, Which sharply contrast with the volatility swings back in 90-95.

Expect the Gold Modulal line to be contested @ 4150, before a fall back to the modual support platform S-1. We intend to make the most of the situation by holding to longs till 4100 levels. And adding at 3350-3450 levels.

Eventhough considered high levels to add at. Past lenghty consolidations point that the market will not yeild low sub 3000 levels to rally from again.

As usual, precise entry /exit position managment will be notified to I TRADE FX clients.

[Summerset]

I have had reservations mailed by some traders regarding the 4100 objective.

The attached chart points out the "Why?", we are holding on for 4100 as a target.

According to some, we are in an ABC correction. Wave B which is playing out now would terminate at some point, and wave C would take over, sending price down to 1400 levels. = (1.618 of total Wave B magnitude going south).

On the attached chart, there was a broadening formation from '90-->'97, which broke out in '97, and reached its ultimate measured target at 0.84 levels.

The Massive tweezer that erupted at 0.84 levels, is actually a 6 candle tweezer formation on an a yearly candle chart. By sheer measurement projections it projects price to FE61.8 at least (See Chart)

Note that price failed to support twice at the FE61.8 objective, fell back and supported on the tweezer top itself, before forming 2 candle ledges- one below & the other above the FE61.8 Resistance, and taking it permenantly out.


Price has now become permenantly supported on the FE61.8. This is an extremely strong support, because if U look more closely at it, its a clear negation of an intial H&S reversal pattern

Having fully supported the FE61.8, the Tweezer's next target is 100% of its inital size = FE100 = 4120

Retraction in the meanwhile will be within the 1st Modual platform shown, and should be seized for 4100 objective.

Our CCi long & mid term momentum graphs as far down as the daily, are all begining to trend in pararell fashion above the zero line - supporting this.

And this is the principal reason a recommendation was issued begining this month to accumlate longs from month open @ 3317.

From the wave prespective, there are other counts that advocate price to be in the 5th wave of an intial 5 wave structure starting from where abouts of the <0.88-0.98> zone. Depending on yr wave count then, wave 5 targets are between 4100 & 4800.

At any rate, we believe that candle language & momentum signs have spoken clearly enough, so let us sit back & enjoy the ride to 4100- and pyramid lower levels if seen