TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

[gregorios]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Limit order to Buy 162.10 at 2.5% exposure
SL @ 161.40. TP @ 167.9

Hi summerset,

Is the target on eur/jpy 167.90 still valid?
By using fibo's on a daily chart with the high & the low 169.07-149.25 I come across 167.00 or just below.
Is there something I am missing?

Regards Gregorios

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by gregorios

Hi summerset,

Is the target on eur/jpy 167.90 still valid?
By using fibo's on a daily chart with the high & the low 169.07-149.25 I come across 167.00 or just below.
Is there something I am missing?

Regards Gregorios

Hi Gregorios,

Nice to see you around, & hope yr profiting well.

On Euroyen the 167.9 Target is still valid.

ANALYSIS:-

1- On the weekly we are correcting in a Flat or Triangle. This could either be an ABC correction after a wave 5 or a prolonged triangular 4 after a wave 3. Many will argue that if it is a flat or even one leg of a 5 swing triangle, price has already covered about 78% of leg-A, making B almost over, and ready for a plunge in C. (See Chart).

2- However, Key to us in the Trade analysis is the momentum.
On the daily chart, the index (the Wave segregation index-WSI) is showing a very strong buy signal cross with its signal line. This means that (iii) is not over, but will be an extrended impulse wave to form a double top in the 169 vicinity.(See Chart again).

3- On the 4hr, WSI is inducating a mild retraction to buy in. Possible re-entry values are 162.8, 163.3,(The 4hr trend line), & Best at 161.65. We would love to re-long at 161.65 (38.2%) retraction, because we are weary of longing high, & geting taken out on tight stops.

4- in all cases, (Even if we miss a re-long), unless there is a strong reversal signal of the 4hr WSI, and yr already long well below the 161.65 level, I would recommend to sit out the retraction, & go for 167.9. (This a 0.618 ratio between our weekly pre-calculated average fluctuation level at 166.54 & breakout fluctuation level @ 168.38).

If there is a WSI reversal signal on 4hr frame - I will let U know to close out.

If yr loaded in the 161.65 vicinity-or above, U could consider to close only partial profits, to avoid being hurt by spikes, and hold the rest as advised to 167.9

Fundamentaly, keep in mind that the Eurodollar will still be attempting 1.43/44. This will act as a catalyst to Euroyen advances attempting the double top scienario

Hope it all helps.

All the Best

[Summerset]

Buy the Market (4155-60) at 1.5% exposure. Stop at 4110. Limit 4330

[Summerset]

Limit Buy @ 115.55 for 1.5% exposure. Target 119. Stop 115.05

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Buy the Market (4155-60) at 1.5% exposure. Stop at 4110. Limit 4330

Hedge by selling the market (4152-50) - at same size (1.5%). Stop loss on Hedge position 4190. Preliminary TP @ 4090.

Remove the stop loss on the original position (4110). The original position will now run with no Stop as it is risk balanced by the running hedge.

There is a retraction signal on 4hr that may deepen. So we will gradually make use of it

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Limit Buy @ 115.55 for 1.5% exposure. Target 119. Stop 115.05

Filled.
Place Stop @ Entry

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

Hedge by selling the market (4152-50) - at same size (1.5%). Stop loss on Hedge position 4190. Preliminary TP @ 4090.

Remove the stop loss on the original position (4110). The original position will now run with no Stop as it is risk balanced by the running hedge.

There is a retraction signal on 4hr that may deepen. So we will gradually make use of it

Will atempt to close the hedge by limit order to buy at Entry 1.4152-50.
Keep Stop on Hedge same @ 4190.

Place Stop on original position back at 4110

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by Summerset

ANALYSIS:-

2- However, Key to us in the Trade analysis is the momentum.
On the daily chart, the index (the Wave segregation index-WSI) is showing a very strong buy signal cross with its signal line. This means that (iii) is not over, but will be an extrended impulse wave to form a double top in the 169 vicinity.(See Chart again).

3- On the 4hr, WSI is inducating a mild retraction to buy in. Possible re-entry values are 162.8, 163.3,(The 4hr trend line), & Best at 161.65.

If there is a WSI reversal signal on 4hr frame - I will let U know to close out.

There was No reversal signal on 4hr. And the max low the mild retraction made was 163.47. (Not 163.3).

Because of the +ve signal on day, we will need to closely investigate extended wave (iii) spoken of on weekly, to pick a good entry for the continued drive into the 167 Area.

The 4hr chart below shows a detailed break up of waves i & iii formely labled on the weekly chart on the previous post.

1- The impulsive breakout occured on breakout of the complex Flat & Zigzag correction shown at 158.90. This is why we have used the swing of <160.3-->155.30) as the 1st primary impulsive swing to run a complete fib extension on.

Note that the correction of swing (1), classically makes 30%, and rests on the top of the broken Flat + Zigzag correction.

2- FE100% was made last week. There is an asending triangle forming below this fib extension. We expect a breakout to the top of this triangle, This breakout is indicated by our positive WSI momentum signal. The breakout should complete a wave 3v that will be equal to 3i. As wave 3iii is clearly the extended wave. This takes projection of 3v to 169. (Max target).

Its possible also to target 168.5 (FE161.8%), or 167.80 (top of the Elliot channel binding waves ii & iv). Target's choice is really a trader's prefrence.

We recommend to long 164.75 (bottom of the ascending triangle) at 2.5% exposure. Take 50% profits at 167.8 (300 pts), and remainder at 169 (425 pts).
Place stop at 163.6 (-115 pts), below this current month's open at 163.74.

Relate yr 2.5% percentage account esposure accordingly. This of course has a positive carry with it.

Profitable Trading