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Old 09-04-2007, 07:20   #57
mister78
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

Hi!

I made a picture and trying to interpret it... Its usdchf.
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Old 09-04-2007, 08:09   #58
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

and here are my pics for eurusd, two for weekly and one for daily... You can see free upward channels, blue (v.steep) tomato (steep) and main gold (less steep). This gold channel is the same as on Summerset drawings, I think. And the analysis which follows is that: first we were in the blue channel, now we are in the tomato and when it breaks we will still be in gold, so the long run strategy is long.
On the daily you can see them more clearly. Now we are in the tomato and my guess is that eurousd will start growing soon below the median of the tomato (some fib number). It should lead is to 1.3800 which you can see on the weekly pics as the resistance (it crosses gold upper band).
Generally I hope this is similar to Summerset much more profound analysis.

And you can also see how it corresponds to usdchf pic above. I enlarged it and Im attaching it also here (the red lines here are M+, M, M- lines in the pic above. It appears we usdchf will go up to the line which is defined as M+ (up to 1.24) then it will fall to the support at 1.1946. And the eurusd should make the way up from 1.33 to 1.37.
And also I expect this move to be continues move up for euro and down for usdchf, so the support for usdchf will be broken on the spike below it (to 1.1900 and then back above 1.1950) and for euro it will be a spike above 1.37 to 1.3750.
Then I think we will have a retrecement on euro which will bring it to the lower band of the gold channel. Next, whether dollar will be further weakning depand on US macro data: gdp and inflation.
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Old 09-04-2007, 08:25   #59
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

and one more pic, to illustrate my reasoning concerning usdchf... (i hope I dont mess this thread but it might also serve for you as a critique of my drawings so dont hesitate to discipline me)
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Old 09-04-2007, 21:04   #60
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

Hi, Im attaching yet another pic usdchf H4... it support bearish trend here, and the current bullish run may end up soon...
There are however us data release this week. They may be good for usd, so I think it is better to carefully sell here and buy euro.
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Old 09-04-2007, 21:09   #61
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

And Summerset, I liked so much this diamond pattern recently on eurusd that now I keep looking for diamonds on every chart Anyway, is there a diamond pattern on eur-gbp? It it breaks up, and if also eurjpy breaks the ressistance on daily, then euro will be rocking at the end of this week or next week...
Lets hope also for good news for euro (or bad news for usd, ups). Here there is a link to a calendar
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
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Old 09-04-2007, 22:11   #62
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

Sorry, but I don't follow the Eur-GBP, so I won't know.

But the Swissdollar's weekly CCi, is about to breakout of an asymetrical triangle. If the break is down as anticipated because of the bear flag formation. Then You will be able to witness a classic fork extreme in action. The gold fork median would be almost gurranteed as target.
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Old 10-04-2007, 05:29   #63
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

OK! Excellent.

...however, I have found recently also an excellent source of analysis here:

http://www.fibogroup.com/pages/506?pair=EURUSD

It is a very complicated analysis. I have a big problem understanding what positition they actually recommend. But it appears they consider the end of bulls on euro soon.
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Old 10-04-2007, 06:05   #64
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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

...eurusd is struggling with the monthly resistance... its the second attemp. I enclose two pics, monthly eurusd chart with the dashed gold line as monthly resistance and enlarged H4 chart where you can also see this gold dashed line (ignore the other lines)
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