TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.

[Summerset]

Originally Posted by mister78

http://www.fibogroup.com/pages/506?pair=EURUSD

Very Thorough analyis indeed. And Excellent input. The thread is becoming much useful.

I have a problem with their intermediate up trending fork, as I can't see why pivot x, instead of pivot (W) is being used. - See their Chart as exhibted below (A).

On Chart (B) - rectification of the pivot x --> (W), clearly incorporated all current price action, and hence there is NO further need to wait for a strong candle close back above the lower median of the up-trending fork as implied in their analysis

Further rectification of the up trending fork's pivot will throw price right above the central median of the up trending fork - shown in Gold on Chart-B.

Rectification of their Super primary fork (shown in blue), by shifting this central fork's median to cover all previous highs made by price, will further confirm that price is currently reverting towards this central median @ 3600.

In any case, laying fork disputes aside, doubts about price still not convincingly closing inside the intermediate's fork lower median are unfounded, because as U will recall, price negated 2 very strong reversal formation ( a broadening pattern & an H&S ), just to stay inside the 23%-->38% vacinity of the uptrending fork.

This gives a clear signal of strenght regarding the continuation of the upwards momentum - without having to wait for further candle signs or closes.

Regarding momentum, there is no mention of it on the analysis. The Macd is shown but with no refrences.

The CCi is showing aggressive bullish momentum on Monthly - weekly & daily charts. By the time the daily goes into a retraction, the monthly & weekly will be there to support it - taking price ultimately to 3600. On their charts, for wave (X) to complete, it targets the 3725 vicinity - regardless of sub wave retractions.

I am still thoroughly studing their wave count.

The charting software is fantastic - U wouldn't happen to know where to subscribe for it ?

[mister78]

Im using this broker but it is a standard MT 4 platform. Notice, there is an email at the bottom of their chart (.ru) I can write them or you try to.

Isnt this double top on eurusd 4H worrying you?
best
B.

[mister78]

Hi,

I found sth interesting concerning fib lines on usdchf. See five files attached:

1.Monthly: I made fib fans from top in 1985 (yellow lines, ignore other). See how 38.2 is a support and 50.0 a resistance

2. Weekly: see these fib fans in bigger scale, they have white numbers aside. Also here I made fib fans from 2001 top, see this (yellow lines with yellow numbers) Notice here the symmetry: the 61.8 on 2001 matches 61.8 on 1985 (thats results from the fact that 2001 top was retraced on fib 61.8 from 1985 but it is beatiful)

3. Daily. Now you only see a very small part of the weekly chart, only period after 2005 (so 2001 top is far away from what you see on the pic). Notice however that again 38.2 Fib of 2001 is the support and 50 Fib of 2001 is the resistance. What a symmetry to the monthly chart

Also note now, I insert Fib lines on a degree-by-degree basis, starting from Fib 50.0 of 2001 top and going below 50... In fact I font do it, but I assume they are all horizontal since 2001 is far away and I only need a couple of degress below 50...

4. Daily2: See these Fib degrees below 50 on a daily in a bit larger scale..

5. H4 chart: Now even more astonishing thing (for a novice like me it is a big big wow! ) Look at the Fib degrees below 50 on the H4 chart! The price travel between them: 3 degrees up, 2 degrees down, and again the same routine: two up and two down.. Appears as a perfect setup for trades. However, here you you should only take sell positions since the main daily trend is south. And you should pick only the positions on the top of the channel.

Finally notice that the red line is more or less 50 Fib of 2001. Its a very strong resistance. Its a perfect setup to gamble - sell now usd chf, and keep selling while the price moves up (if it does so..but my guess is it will at least go to the median of the current channel up before it leaves it - and it crosses the blue Fib, just below red 50 Fib).

If the price crosses 50 Fib on 2001 (the red line more or less on my pic) then me might have this temporary up trend on usdchf become more permanent...

[Summerset]

Hi Bart,

Could U please smooth yr charts more, by removing the parabolic indicator, the Wcci circle patterns, together with the 2 lower CCi graphs - to make for more room & clarity in reading with the post. Just leave the fibs & channel lines on - else it gets confusing to match with the post.

Many Thanks & Good work.

[mister78]

OK...Im uploading the files again...sorry for having such a mess before... Now it is a bit more clear...
But also its worth noting that you have many tops and bottoms, so you can draw fib fans in many ways...in particular the 50.0 Fib I have as a resistance can be moved up and down...

[mister78]

And here is one more picture usdchf dailu, with all lines in so that you can see the scale of 4h chart, and see the how they fit (I drew horizontal lines on 4h charts, so they are not so horizontal on daily, and this picture illustrate what is the mistake)

[mister78]

Hi!

Here, I made the same for eurusd as before on usdchf. I found some evidence confirming your buy signal on eur usd - its nice to hope to be well positioned.

BTW: there is a small mistake on the charts (it is 2001 while it should be 2000on most of them, but you will not be confused because of that)

There is one very funny thing here. Its funny and it is someting I basicly do not understand... So please give me a hint.

A. Monthly: you see the setup of the analysis

B. Weekly: as you see on the weekly there is 38.2 Fib on 2000 about to be broken. After it is, the price will go up very fast....but (1) ....

C. ...but if you zoom it on the daily you will see, it is still far to 38.2 Fib on 2000 to be broken...instead the resistance is 61.8 Fib on 1985!! It looks just totally diffrent here on daily than on monthly and weekly...But still lines appear to have signicifance on each of the chart! Truely a riddle.
As you can see on chart C, the resistance Fib 61.8 on 1985 has been many times attacked during the past weeks. It has eventually been broken yesterday....but (2)...

...but when I first made this chart I simply attached fib fans on the weekly min and max levels...on the weekly bars of the weekly chart...

...However, to observe things on the daily, I decided to switch to daily and correctly attach the fibs on the min and max of the daily bars (well, you have to travel on your daily chart all the way back to 1985...its actually when my broker reports the first daily data..)

...and here is what I found:

D. ...refering to: "but (2)", I made a refinement on the charts as decribed above, and here is the refined daily eurusd..See, that the resistance has not been broken! But it seems to me that it is purely technical things, some traders use these charts, other other charts, but generally bulls are in advantage in both groups...
Of course, the refinement doesnt change the fibs on the weekly charts and mothly charts (they are correctly attached to the higest and lowest bars)

So we have two "buts":
1. Why the diffrence between monthly resistance (38 Fib on 2000, or 61.8 Fib on 1985)?
2. What with the current resistance? Broken or not?

Anyway, I have a couple of more charts and ideas...Among others, I would just like to make a point (to be discussed) that the forks are basicly Fib lines that become horizontal on smaller scale... And if you operate on large scale, make channels based on fibs rather than on horizontal lines (or you will refine your forks to early and jump on the oposite trend before the current trend is over actually...that may confuse and lead to losses)

But the conlusion is basicly: buy eurusd, sell usdchf

all best!

[mister78]

here I post the same 4H usdchf chart as yesterday, just you can see todays 4h bars...it seems the lines are correct support and resistance...

I opened now usdchf short position...though the price might get higher...but eurusd is strong...There are some news due this week which might get usdchf even higher but still you can see that the lines point south so far..

Also, the problem is that the usdchf might break out north, and eurusd will fail to break the resistance... The news favour the dollar... Then I will loose.

I rely a lot on your analysis Summerset, especially on the high momentum on eurusd which point towards the break of the resistance. Also, the resistance has been tested many times these days, that means it is likely to be broken.