Analytics for beginners

[FXdudy]

USD
The American currency on Asian bids set new absolute minimums, after which traders began to open the positions for the sale USD, which led to its strengthening to levels of opening.
Statistics from the American economy shown that capital inflows (according to the U.S. Treasury - Tsy Intl Capital System) have increased from $56 to $ 62 billion, that shows confidence of foreign investors in the future of the American economy.
Perhaps USD is at its minimum below which it will not be able to fall no more that pushes investors to buy American securities as they are relatively inexpensive.
Other indicators, among which it is worth to mention manufacturing production - Industrial Production and Business Activity Index - NY Fed Empire State Survey showed a slight deterioration, but it was within the permissible limits.
The market is waiting for a decision on interest rates, which will be published tomorrow at 21:15. No one doubts that rate will be lowered. The question is whether how they will be reduced. The range of opinions is verifying from 0.5% to 1%, but the majority believes that the Fed will reduce rate by 0.5%.
Besides reducing the interest rate tomorrow there will be published data on Producer Price Index. If the index stays at current points, it could cause much greater decline in the American currency because the Fed will have additional opportunities for lowering the interest rate.
In addition, investors' attention will be drawn to the start of construction of new houses -Housing Starts. This is an advanced rate indicator. It depends on many factors and therefore varies greatly, but if it shows a growing trend for the 3rd consecutive time, it will mean the completion of the negative effects in the construction sector, preceding future growth of the American economy and the strengthening of USD.

GBP
GBP is descending against USD two days running. After deviation of pair above the level of 2,008 the cost of USD expressed in terms of GBP has become very attractive for Bid and the main reason for reducing of GBP | USD.
Among the British data the main attention focuses on the inflationary data to be published before a decision on interest rates in the United States, as well as the publication of the Bank of England meeting minutes which will be published on Wednesday.
The British economy at the moment needs to reduce interest rates to support its growth, but inflation does not allow lowering them, forcing the Bank of England to keep their current levels for a long time.
At the end of trading day on Monday GBP/USD was above the level of 1.9870 (closing of the second three-year period), which is the first intermediate goal before further decline of pair. The next support is at 1.9575-1.94 (the area of closing five-year cycle). Further support is at 1.9175 (closing of a three-year period). Break by 1.94 may mean the final declining of pair, which should last for three years at least. The cause of decline will be the growth of USD and the decline of GBP, which will be caused by the needs of both economies.

[FXdudy]

GOLD

After reaching a new absolute maximum the price of gold fell to $ 1000 per troy ounce. It was caused by technical factors and only fixation of speculative positions that were closed after reaching the level of $ 1030 per ounce.
If USD continues to decline, there will be new historical highs. In that case, growth could resume either from the level of $ 1000 or $ 980 (helpline ascending channel). However, the announcement of decision on interest rate in the United States (which will be held this evening) may cause movement in any direction. It is recommended to abstain from trading before the announcement of the decision.

the source of info: //blog.poltekfx.com/?agent=24263

[FXdudy]

EUR
EUR/USD is going down after the announcement of the decision to reduce the discount rate. Reduction of pair was caused by fixation of long positions, but the price is expected to return very soon, and we will see continuation of ascending trend.
Intermediate buying of EUR | USD will start from the support line of ascending trend at around 1.56 (see chart). In the case of the further reduction the buying will increase approaching to 1.54. Counting in favor of further growth there are Bush's speech which was somewhat disturbing, as well as low inflation that allow the United States to lower discount rate to 1%.
On Wednesday Construction production as well as the trade balance on European economy will be published. The latter will be of interest because growth of EUR could affect the export of goods from the euro zone.

the source of info:http://blog.poltekfx.com

[FXdudy]

GBP
GBP | USD is testing 1.9870 the area of the first intermediate support (closing of a second three-year period), which is located below the stop order. Breaking of this level will open the way to1.94 support level (closing of five-year period.) Area between the two levels is of great interest to participators as in the case of reducing prices below the second level there is a probability of further pair reducing and it can continue to decline for several years when the price doesn’t get back to the current position.
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[FXdudy]

GOLD
Against a background of strengthening USD gold fell sharply. The collapse of gold was caused by the closure of a large number of speculative positions, which had been opened against the dollar decline. Sharp fluctuations in the gold were caused by USD decline, as it is quoted in USD value. Against the background of USD decline, many participants bought futures on goods to maintain their savings, and that led to their growth. However, the strengthening of the dollar led to outflows of speculative money to the foreign exchange market, and then it was followed by strong sales of commodity items. It is expected that the American currency will soon resume its decline, against the backdrop of which we will see a further increase in the cost of metals....full text is here:PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 21.03.08

[FXdudy]

21.03.2008
USD

USD has completed the consolidation on Thursday (which is a technical correction) after a long decline. However, despite long decline and the high rate of other currencies against the dollar, it is expected that USD will continue to decline for some time. Inflationary data in the United States remains modest, which allow the discount rate cut to 2% as minimum for the maintenance of growth, but in the future this step will cause hyper-inflation, for deterrence of whitch it will be necessary to raise rates quickly up to 10%.
For financial markets today is not of interest, as most of the countries celebrate Good Friday, which will result in lack of news.

PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 21.03.08

[FXdudy]

JPY

USD | JPY is traded with a slight increase, which is a technical correction after a long decline. It is possible that in the morning growth of pair will continue because of low volume of trading and lack of holidays in many countries.
Technical analysis shows that after a long time the price can grow up to 111.80 (50% of the downward movement), after that the decline will resume. But America should stop lowering interest rates for such a strong growth. Examining the fundamental analysis in the United States a few more downwards are possible, so this growth is not expected soon. ...
Full text is here: PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 21.03.08

[FXdudy]

the source of info:http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=55&forex=1


GBP
GBP | USD is traded with rise, but uncertainty in the banking system will not allow the British economy to continue to strengthen GBP, so that it will be a decline of GBP/USD in the nearest future.
Intermediate sales can start from 2.0080, which is 50% of the correction, as well as important historical significance (the closure of half year and the current technical level of resistance).
In the case of the level break, it is recommended to average the position from 2.0300. This level of resistance is significantly stronger, and its break is not possible in the current conditions.
It is a report on the inflation of BoE to the Financial Committee in the Parliament that could have an impact on the British currency trades.