Analytics for beginners

[FXdudy]

the source of info:http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=55&forex=1

USD
USD continues to decline against major currencies. The decline was caused by technical factors - the completion of descending correction, and fundamental factors, such as Consumer Confidence index was at the lowest level since 2003 and amounted to 64.5 points.
The negative mood on the American currency will prevail for some time, probably until the recession begins to disappear, and then we will see a strengthening of USD.
May can become a turning point, when the threat to economic growth will be completely eliminated, but the slowdown of economic growth will stop. This state of the economy will indicate the overcome of the crisis and future growth. A new cycle of growth will be accompanied by heightened inflation and rise of interest rates above 5%. Overall, we are on the threshold of a new era of development, but what this era will be like, and how exactly it will begin, is not clear yet.
Today will be saturated with news. Among statistics on the USA it is worth to pay attention to orders of durable goods, which are expected to be better than the previous month.
The data is not likely to influence on the market, as at present analysis showing a moderate decline in USD prevails.



EUR
EUR | USD is traded with increased due to technical analysis, which shows that before the Asian session the price approached 1.56 intermediate level of resistance, which makes up 50% of the correction. Break of this level will lead to a further rise in prices in the area of absolute maximums, but the current impulse of the growth is significantly weaker than the previous, so break of 1.5860 resistance level will be very difficult.
The closest support is 1.5360 (the level at which the correction ended). Further support is at 1.5190 (February closing).
Using the chart analysis, we can expect the closure of this month in the area of 1.5560, but the increased volatility and nervousness, which is peculiar to the market, can make a strong impact. The minimum cost of month closure is forecast at 1.5350. The maximum cost is at 1.5770 (see chart).
Among the statistics to be published on the European economy, we should pay attention to the balance of payments as well as the statement of the head of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet.

[FXdudy]

Review of FOREX 28.03.2008

The source of info: http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=61&forex=1


USD
Today USD was in the consolidation. After intensive decline on Wednesday, against a background of low optimism of American consumers, today's consolidation was caused by relatively good data on the rate of growth of GDP for the 4th quarter of last year, which amounted to 0.6% against expected and similar value in the previous quarter.
Data are powerful and disturbing signals. Perhaps all the rumors of a recession, which should be accompanied by a fall in growth rates and inflation, are slightly exaggerated. Despite the crisis in the housing market and the banks there is a high probability that the slowdown in the United States will not be as significant as earlier predicted, and the American economy will be able to go out of the recession faster than it is expected.
Now the focus of the market will be on U.S. GDP data, industrial manufacturing and inflation component. If there is no burst of inflation in the nearest future and industry shows stability, we can expect a completion of recession, and then there will be strengthening of the American currency, meaning a three-year cycle of its strengthening.
On Friday, there will be no significant data on the American economy; therefore, most likely the personal income and personal spending, volume of trades will not be high and will be mainly in the side direction. Among the Friday data the personal income and expenses will attract attention but most likely they will not have a noticeable impact.



JPY
JPY is traded with decreasing against USD. After rapid consolidation of the Japanese currency, the growth of USD | JPY is a technical correction.
It is still expected that in the midterm outlook value of the pair will grow up to 111.80 (three-year closing cycle), and then opening of short positions on the pair with target of 2-3 years are recommended.
After a strong correction caused by the strengthening of the American currency, which is expected to happen in the middle of the second -third quarter, it is possible expect a raise of interest rate by Bank of Japan that will open the long term strengthening of JPY. It is possible that when the growth cycle of JPY ends in a few years, we will see USD/JPY rate near 80 yen pre one dollar.
In the current conditions the strongest resistance level of the pair will be 111.80 (closure of the second 3-year cycle) coincided with 50 % from downward movement of prices (see chart) in the area of which it is expected to make a turnout.
In the short run, a pair may slightly fall, which will be caused by the weakness of the American currency, but once this weakness comes to nothing, we will see the reverse process.
Among the data, it is worth paying attention to the core consumer price index for the country, as well as retail sales. Inflationary component in Japan for will remain at a low level for a long time, which is restraining Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, but retail sales in the current economic conditions reflect consumer confidence, which many people are paying more attention on.

GBP
All attention will be focused on British economy today. Statistics on the growth rates of GDP and balance of payments for 4 quarter will show whether the American crisis had an impact on British economy or not. Like in the United States, in Britain they expect GDP growth of 4 quarter to 0.6% level.
GBP | USD is located near the intermediate level of 50% of the price drop. It is expected that against the background of the American currency weakness the price will rise to 2.04 again, followed by turnout of the trend. The area looks oversold to the British currency, so the price will not be able to remain there for a long time. It is recommended opening long positions on the pair, in the case of growth, above 2.01 to 2.04 target, and short positions from 2.04 to 1.98 intermediate target.

[FXdudy]

USD

First two weeks of this month USD demonstrated the relative stabilization. The prolonged decline in the dollar index has changed to sideward direction with the formation of a triangle, which in the nearest future can be realized that will cause resumption of decline in the American currency.
Statistics of the last week showed that the American economy continues to slowdown, but it is already not as fast as in previous months, so at the end of the second quarter we should expect final stabilization of the American economy and the consolidation of the dollar near the minimums, after which USD will start strengthening, and the strengthening of the cycle will last for several years.
On Monday in the United States data on retail sales will be published, but most likely it will not have a significant impact on the market as at present they are not key data. Weak growth indicator of sales is expected to 0.1% against 0.6% decline in the previous month. This week further decline in the currency is expected, which will cause even greater deviation from the economic grounded marks.

The source of info: http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=62&forex=1

[FXdudy]

EUR

The European currency is traded with increase relative to American dollar. By the end of the week, EUR/USD could approach closer to 1.5850 strategic level of resistance, that is restraining further strengthening of the pair. In the case of break of this level, a pair will grow to 16th figure. Taking into account the formed triangle, the maximum of the pair can be recorded in the area of 1.6350 marks.
Inflationary data in the euro are still in the maximum points, while growth rates remain at a good level that allows the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 4% for a long time. It is expected that in the third quarter rising of inflation in Europe will decline, after which the rate will start falling and the rate of European currency will decline.
On Monday in the euro zone data on Industrial production will be published, which are expected to be at the level of the previous month. Data could cause an increase in EUR | USD, which will once again test the resistance level of 1.5850.

http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=62&forex=1

[FXdudy]

JPY

The Japanese currency is traded in expectation of the publication of the minutes of meeting of Bank of Japan, which last week, as expected, retained the interest rate at current 0.5% level.
It is expected that the market will ignore data protocols, as they will not be significantly different from the previous month’s protocols.
Technical analysis shows that the level of support, from which long positions should be opened on USD | JPY, is at 100.00 mark. The level of support is at mark of 97 yen per dollar.
The nearest resistance is at around 103 points. Targeted level is 111.80 (closure of a second three-year cycle).

http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=62&forex=1

[FXdudy]

USD

American currency is still traded in the sideward trend, but taking into account the great importance of today's data as well as strong state of consolidation, we can expect sharp change in prices towards both a decline in the dollar and its growth.
The signals to decline in USD are strengthening pair of EUR | USD to the absolute maximums as well as updating maximums of oil futures, which are now traded in the region of $ 113 per barrel.
The signal to the strengthening dollar is the fact that the pair has not been able to form the triangle at H4 yet.
As most of analysts expect, the dollar is likely to continue decline. In this case, the most prospective pair for buying will be EUR | USD, which is expected to grow to 1.62 marks as well as a pair of GBP | USD which is suitable to the level of strong support 1.9575.
Today the attention should be paid to CPI ex food & energy as well as Consumer Price Index.
If inflationary pressures show growth, the monetary authorities of the United States will be significantly limited in further reducing of interest rates that in the medium term should support the American currency.
The inflation data apart, we should pay attention to Housing Starts and Building Permits.
These indicators show how construction sector copes with the crisis mortgage, which has been suffered from the mortgage crisis. If the construction shows growth for a few months, then it will be a good signal for the coming completion of the crisis. Market could not apprehend single growth of indicators because of their strong decline.

http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=73&forex=1

[FXdudy]

GBP

GBP | USD is approaching to the area of closing five-year cycle (end of 2006) located in the area of 1.9575. It is expected that there will be fixation of some positions opened for the sale of GBP and the pair will make rebound upwards.
In the case of turnout signs, it is recommended to open up long positions with intermediate target in the region of 1.9720 and make stop loss below 1.9550.
Among the news about British economy which will be published today, unemployment should be pointed out, however taking into account issue of an important bloc of statistics of the United States it is likely that it will not make any impact.
http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=73&forex=1

[FXdudy]

CAD

USD | CAD fell sharply in the beginning of European session. If the decline continues, the price will be on very attractive levels, making use of which is recommended after the completion of USD decline impulse, which is expected to lower in the nearest 2 days.
Turnout of the pair can happen in the area of 1.0015 (closing January and the level of 50% of the growth impulse), or in an area of 0.9925 (closure of a three-year cycle), but, in any case, the couple is directed towards the growth and each time of correction opening of long positions is recommended.
Monetary authorities of Canada started lowering the interest rate, following the United States, but unlike America in Canada inflation is at an acceptable level, which will let resumption of lowering rates for several years.
Before the opening positions to buy the pair, it is recommended to wait until EUR | USD stabilizes in the region of 1.62 as the lowering of the dollar could lead to a decline in USD | CAD to even more attractive levels.
http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=73&forex=1