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My First year trading Budget
This post is dedicated to John since you have many more years experience than I in the financial markets. There seems to be a great deal of difference and speculation in how much a person can earn trading forex. In fact, Dr. Alexander Elder says 30% and Brain June in his book that he co-authors with Van K. Tharp says the top would be 200% annually.
So I decided to do some calculations of my own. Happy reading:
First Year Trading Budget
Capital Requirement: $3000 CAD
Pips per week expected: 25
Margin Used at OANDA: 50:1
Units able to be traded: EUR/USD 3000/1.22/1.30 x 50 X .95 = 89,800 OR
Units able to be traded: GBP/USD 3000/1.22/1.88 x 50 X .95 = 62,100 OR
Units able to be traded: USD/CHF 3000/1.22/ x 50 X .95 = 116,800 OR
Units able to be traded: USD/CAD 3000/1.22/ x 50 X .95 = 116,800.
Units needed for $1 USD change in profit/loss per pip:
EUR/USD and GBP/USD = 10,000
USD/CHK 10,000 X 1.186 = 11,860
USD/CAD 10,000 X 1.22 = 12200
Value per Pip: EUR/USD 89,800/10000 = $8.98 USD
GBP/USD 62,100/10000 = $6.21 USD
USD/CHF 116,800/11,860 = $9.84 USD
USD/CAD 116,800/12,200 = $9.57 USD
Average Value per Pip Traded = (8.98+6.21+9.84+9.57)/4 = $8.65
Profit per Week: 25 pips X $8.65 X 1.22 = $263 CAD
Weekly % ROI = 263/3000 = 8.7%
Profit per Year, using 50 weeks and compounding weekly @ 8.7% = $194,356
Note: Substituting 100 pips per week in the above scenario, the last three lines would look like this:
Profit per Week: 100 pips x 8.65 X 1.22 = $1055 CAD
Weekly % ROI = 1055/3000 = 35%
Profit per Year, using 25 weeks and compounding weekly @ 35% = $5.4 Million
Making 5.4 Million Dollars from $3,000 in 25 weeks trading anything is totally unrealistic, so there is a major error in this calculation somewhere, but I don’t know what it is.
Footnotes:
1.22 USD/CDN Exchange Rate
1.186 USD/CHK Exchange Rate
1.30 EUR/USD Exchange Rate
1.88 GBP/USD Exchange Rate
.95 is amount of capital able to be used keeping a buffer to prevent margin calls
Assumptions (a) Present Market conditions would be available for the next 50 weeks
(b) all profits are reinvested into capital available for trading (c) exchange rates would not change significantly (d) trader consistently trades for those 50 weeks.
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