Can you really make a living from FX ?

[ezekiel]

It is possible to trade FX for a living. I know several individuals who take money out of the market year in and year out. I'm not quite there yet, but hope to someday

Trading FX is just like any other business. Think of the people who setup an ebiz during the tech boom in the late 90's?? How many are still around today? You'll probably hear the numbers, maybe 5-10%. Cant verify the percentages, but believe FX is no different.

Even though many had the same business model, it was only those with a competitive 'edge' that persevered and are still profitable today.

So there is a road that exists, but it's not an easy one.

Ezekiel

[Knoxy]

Sorry I haven't been back a few days. Discussion of indicators probably not intent of thread but I'll give a quick answer. Hull moving average created by Australian Alan Hull. It's generally seen as a better moving average than most, in terms of lag and overshoot.You could use TEMA, but HMA seems better.

Unfortunately I've moved on from MT4 due to my data feed so don't have code. Equation for HMA is WAverage(2xWAverage(close,period2/2)-WAverage(close,period1),SquareRoot(Period1))
Here WAverage means weighted average.

SMI is more complex, I'll see if I can code both for MT4 and post. Meantime, attached the GBPJPY chart I talked about. This from an article I wrote for Darryl Guppy's newsletter two weeks ago. Happily this one pair returned 3000 pts in 3 months

cheers

[bobnat]

Thanks Knoxy. I'd give it a try if you code it for MT4.

Cheers,

Nat

[spahiu]

here's the Mt4 HULL MA posted on the Strategybuilder forum http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/for...87&postcount=6

[bobnat]

Originally Posted by spahiu

here's the Mt4 HULL MA posted on the Strategybuilder forum http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/for...87&postcount=6

Thanks Spahiu. It's interesting...

Nat

[MickMason]

I'm no MA expert but doesn't this look similar to Juriks Moving Average? I'm not sure how that's calsulated but the resulting indicator looks the same.


Mick

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by Knoxy

Sorry I haven't been back a few days. Discussion of indicators probably not intent of thread but I'll give a quick answer. Hull moving average created by Australian Alan Hull. It's generally seen as a better moving average than most, in terms of lag and overshoot.You could use TEMA, but HMA seems better.

Unfortunately I've moved on from MT4 due to my data feed so don't have code. Equation for HMA is WAverage(2xWAverage(close,period2/2)-WAverage(close,period1),SquareRoot(Period1))
Here WAverage means weighted average.

SMI is more complex, I'll see if I can code both for MT4 and post. Meantime, attached the GBPJPY chart I talked about. This from an article I wrote for Darryl Guppy's newsletter two weeks ago. Happily this one pair returned 3000 pts in 3 months

cheers

Thank you for posting the screenshot Knoxy.

How exactly do you use the SMI?
At first glance a cross of the SMI and the signal line validate a signal from the HMA and a re-cross seems to be a good exit.
It would be very nice if you could explain how exactly you use it.


I noticed that it doesn`t keep you out of a choppy market though.
How do you get rid of the chop?

And you said that you are monitoring 18 pairs.
Since this seems like almost an always in market system, how many positions do you manage maximum simultanously?

Another question:
If you only need 1 hr per day to manage your trades, you only react on every 7th or 8th 4hrs bar. What are you doing if the trend/signal reversed on you in that time and new signals occured?

[Knoxy]

A couple of answers. Yes HMA is similar to Jurik ma. I've used Juriks indicators but only have Tradestation versions, therefore use HMA elsewhere. Jurik JMA is very good. Also the slope of Juriks RSX is interesting.

Still developing the trading method and Dan is pretty well right, SMI validates HMA. I sometimes break the rules and enter on HMA turn and pyramid on SMI. I know, potentially bad idea. It's not an exact science yet, hope you guys can help.

I use 4h charts because my provider doesn't offer 8h or 12h. I actually use them as a 12h chart. In morning I spend half hour going through the 18 charts and making trades. Doesn't sound much time, but the method is very visual so it takes little time per chart. Most times they continue on from previous direction. I do the same when I return from my day job 12h later. So yes, I can miss a bar or two. The alternative was to trade dailies which seems too coarse.

I'm looking to firm up the method and eventually automate it using MBTrading's SDK. Believe method works well on 2h chart if automated.

I have daily and 4h chart open for each pair so I've a long term reference. I use horizontal lines to show my entry and stop points on charts. High probability trades when SMI near normal extremes on both time frames. I'm looking for an HMA turn then and the prelude to this is 2 or 3 closes below the HMA line on 4h. Can drop down to 2h if the pair has history of big moves early. I trade 2 positions, one with a set limit of 60 - 80 pts (depending on the pair) and the other awaiting exit signal. I find the hit rate on the 60 pt very high, even in choppy trades it keeps me profitable. I have wide trailing stop on the longer trade.

The max number of pairs I trade at any time is 10 of the 18. Use daily chart to tell if the volatility is decreasing on a pair. There are simply times when probabilities are low on a pair, why fight it.

Point of all this is I wanted to show that using a good timeframe and a suitable method means that you can extract sufficient points to make a living. If I make a living trading I don't want it to be sitting in front of a screen all day, be nice to have a life also.

Don't listen too much to unsuccessful traders who say impossible, they are after all, unsuccessful.

All the best