COT Reports

[novice]

Large speculator Or Hedger?

For example

Buffet has taken an 18 billion dollar position against the USD. Is this a specualtion or a hedge against his USD assets?

To class Buffet as a speculator and thus dumb money is a little rich. COT analysis has many of these problems.

If you class Buffet as a speculator you should fade his trade, is this really a good strategy?

[novice]

Also hedgers are not always the smart money. I was reading that only one American airline hedged its fuel costs at a low level.

[novice]

COT analysis like any other methods has its good and bad points. I have often wondered if in forex (i.e. a interbank market) COT futures reports may be a little less indicative.

[Iris]

Buffett.......A Commercial...

Buffet has taken an 18 billion dollar position against the USD. Is this a specualtion or a hedge against his USD assets?

Both...yet Buffett at an $18billion Position classifies a Commercial Interest...but its in the unwinding of his overall Strategy...the question I'm sure Buffet wants to spark is were am I going to initiate those Short USD Positions as they relate to his DJIA and Global equity/assett postions. An equitable hedge on his Capital/Equity Market assetts strategically placed to enhance his Short USD performance thus effectively compounding his total Net Worth.

COT is gauged by Position/Interest...the Small/Large/Commercial speculators who fill these categories dependent upon their holding and filing. COT Data is dispersed through the 3 classifications depending upon their Position size. Entity filing is done with the CFTC who in turn establishes the COT Data by the 3 classifications thru filing... compiled in the COT Report.

I have often wondered if in forex (i.e. a interbank market) COT futures reports may be a little less indicative.

COT Futures are a direct representation of the Fundamentals in the underlying currency...an important glimpse in the Directional Bias's that are being formulated and positioned...A Tool...to be used in conjunction with other confirming indicators that design Time/Price.

The COT Data is a Fundamental Tool...with Commercial Positioning preceding major Market turns in the Currency itself...for as such they are in the Business of the Fundamentals ie... outcomes. Having a Tool to measure their underlying strength/weakness from a Fundemental standard can be vital to projecting future Price Discovery through a Technical projection into SPOT Forex.

[Iris]

US Dollar Index COT Weekly.............

Time/Price in USD has had a North High advance to 89.29 with a South decline to Todays close at 88.01...with the 88<>87.50 basis being sustained/firmed in conjunction with nominal decreasing Open Interest/Short Covering from the last Data...the Commercials have initiated a small increase in Longs...the next 2+ COT Weekly reports will give a pivotal perspective on were the Commercial Interests see the Net Directional Bias on USD thru 2004.

South break of 87.50 thru 87 shows Net Short Bias.
North break of 90.25<>90.50 signals Net Long Bias.

The US Dollar Index has the Commercial Interests adding to their Net Long posture to a 4 week High...not indicative of a South break below 87.50<>87 for a run to the Lows at 85 basis...also Open Interest is increasing thus Short Covering has subsided for now. The Large Speculators>Net Short are approaching an extreme to the Commercials>Net Long...a turning point is at hand.

USD currently at 88.23...still maintaining the 88 level...with Commercials increasing a Net Long Bias...Decision Time for USD's next leg is at hand. Eur/Usd Weekly Closes in green.

[novice]

XAU/USD (i.e. the "anti-dollar")

marked when hedgers increase short positions

marked gold rallies

hedgers historically have increased short position just BEFORE gold rallies

hedgers historically have decreased short positions just BEFORE gold declines

current picture:

hedgers have just started to increase short positions

gold has just begun ralling

[novice]

I was just wondering how the COT reports would class Buffet's forex positions (assuming that he is using futures, probably a false assumption). Hedger or speculator?

[Iris]

Crude Oil COT Weekly...............

Open Interest is at a YTD extreme with Oil hitting the $50 level...and subsequent pullback decline to $45...would anticipate to see a squaring of Long Positions with declining OI/Short Covering with a move South to $38/$40 brl...before the Commercials begin their next Accumulation/Distribution phase.