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Old 11-04-2004, 00:28   #9
bearprofits
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So in the EUR/USD is it telling us the big money (commercial/hedgers) has been squaring it's short positions?
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Old 11-04-2004, 00:34   #10
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That is how I see it, but this is just me.

Only problem are they squaring positions in pre for a new rally in EUR/USD. Or are a new set of hedgers (US exports, EU imports) entering long positions on the assumption of a reveral and a new EUR/USD decline?
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Old 11-04-2004, 00:48   #11
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Does the normal inverse relationship exist between Euro and Swissy? I'm not good at posting charts but the SFXNT, seems the big money is long.

Oops, I think prices are in Franks not Dollars, so would this confirm a bullish look for the Euro?

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Old 11-04-2004, 01:38   #12
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Don't know about the CHF/USD

Why hedgers would be net very long.

If I had to guess I would say that the CHF/USD is a much smaller currency pairs in terms of volume and as such the signals that it gives are going to be more erratic.

In september 2003 the hedgers where net long CHF/USD and yet the CHF/USD rallied strongly.

About the inverse relationship:

In forex EUR/USD and USD/CHF

In COT EUR/USD and CHF/USD

Thus in forex there is going to be an inverse relationship in COT there is going to be a direct relationship. Just depends on how the cross is quoted (i.e. which is the base currency and which is the selltement currency).

I guess if hedgers are net long while the trend is up it is even more bullish than is hedgers where only somewhat short while the trend is up.
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Old 11-04-2004, 01:46   #13
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If you want to post a picture:

right click on the picture
copy
open a imaging program (start, programs, accessories, imaging)
create jpg file
right click
paste picture
save as to file

then on the bottom of post or post reply box
attach file
browse button
go to the file where you have saved the picture
open the file
submit reply
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Old 11-04-2004, 06:42   #14
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Novice,

Thanks for the insight into the charts and the help on posting.
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Old 11-04-2004, 08:18   #15
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I was also thinking that if hedgers are net long CHF/USD they are factoring in an extreme geo-political threat. As the CHF is a safe haven par excellence.

How is the posting of charts/pictures going. Maybe to copy a chart you need to use the print screen button in your charting program as opposed to the plain copy. Then just paste the chart in as above.
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Old 11-04-2004, 08:22   #16
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Why the interest in the COT reports?
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