it seems to me that speculators are becoming euro bullish (do they smell trend? 50 EMA on weekly charts?), while small traders (supposed to be wrong) are following Commercials.
Orion602, Euro Reversal? Not many supports left for the euro. IMHO this week Euro gains back some ground or it's headed quickly for 1.1375/1.4000 range
Look at gold in terms of an "anti-dollar" to gauge USD strength and weakness.
Hedgers have reduced short positions.
But hedgers are still net short.
Prices have dipped.
What does all this mean?
Well since hedgers are still net short as opposed to being net long they assume that the long term direction of gold is still up. If they assumed that the long term direction of gold a diffrent set of hedgers (i.e. miners as opposed to banks and jewellers) would enter the market. These hedgers would be net long. So judging by this hedgers (i.e. the smart money) assume that the long term direction of gold is up. Thus the long term direction of the USD is down.
Hedgers have reduced short positions during this latest decline in prices. But prices and hedgers short positions are increasing. This would suggest that the USD will fall further.
Thus the smart money appears to be betting on further USD declines vs gold. You could extroplate this to USD vs other currencies.
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