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Old 26-09-2005, 20:32   #49
TraderABC
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Re: Are currency markets random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by question
TraderABC, here's an exercise in statistics if the markets are truly random:

1. Let's accept that news events and new information can be considered random to the outside viewer in the fact that it can either be good or bad.

2. Let's assume that the random security we're talking about is EUR/USD which is currently trading at 1 EUR to 1 USD.

3. If the market movements are totally random, after a sufficiently large number of iterations, the EUR/USD will be trading at or very near to 1 EUR to 1 USD.(why?)

4. The reason for this is that the standard deviation of an event decreases after each successive iteration.

5. Toss a coin. Assume heads equal 1 and tails equal 0. After one toss, it is impossible to have an average value of 0.5. But after 2 tosses, you have a 50% chance of having a value of 0.5. Toss the coin more and more, and you will see that more and more of your average value possibilities will hover around 0.5.

6. This whole exercise proves there is some non-random component to the markets.
Question,
#3 - The question is HOW MANY RUNS? It could be millions or BILLIONs.

Check below pic.
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Old 28-09-2005, 16:43   #50
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Re: Are currency markets random?

My logic was flawed.

What is contained is increase over iterations ... not total increase or total decrease.
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Old 27-12-2005, 20:48   #51
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Re: Are currency markets random?

I can't conqurr the similaritys, but. The betting exchange signifys somewhat of an interesting question to bare in mind. Relating to the Currency Market, overall.

Are they the same?
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Old 27-12-2005, 23:47   #52
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Re: Are currency markets random?

Currency is a commodity like oil, gold, coffee, etc. To say it’s completely random is like saying the price you’ll pay for your tank of gas next week is totally random. Or that tomorrow when you go to get your morning coffee that it’s price is NOT driven by the crop conditions, weather, supply or demand or any other forces. It has no bearing on any sort of condition it’s purely random.

Currency is the exactly same way. It responds to economic forces as Coffee dose to weather.

To say ANY market is random is completely naïve, and illogical.

-Frank
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Old 28-12-2005, 03:17   #53
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Re: Are currency markets random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TraderABC
Question,
#3 - The question is HOW MANY RUNS? It could be millions or BILLIONs.

Check below pic.


I’ve just finished my little excel program that generates random price data and it trends like the one TraderABC flaunts so much once out of ever 5 or so charts.

So everyone won’t have to rely on TraderABC favorite charts so much.

I’ll attach it to let everyone random o rama to their hearts content

Also their called pseudo random numbers for a reason. Computers arn't perfect after all

Enjoy!

-Frank
Attached Files
File Type: zip RandomPriceData.zip (32.1 KB, 29 views)

Last edited by BullMarket : 28-12-2005 at 03:32.
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Old 28-12-2005, 08:41   #54
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Re: Are currency markets random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BullMarket
Currency is a commodity like oil, gold, coffee, etc. To say it’s completely random is like saying the price you’ll pay for your tank of gas next week is totally random. Or that tomorrow when you go to get your morning coffee that it’s price is NOT driven by the crop conditions, weather, supply or demand or any other forces. It has no bearing on any sort of condition it’s purely random.

Currency is the exactly same way. It responds to economic forces as Coffee dose to weather.

To say ANY market is random is completely naïve, and illogical.

-Frank

I did not say that it doesn't have cause-effect relationships or higher level order. GOD DOESN'T PLAY DICE. The problem is that if the market is FAIR and if it responds to outside events, then you can't really beat it unless you can predict the events that will happen in the future. Until that you will have to work on your clairvoyance skills for trading!

For example that coffee/weather example. You can't predict if the weather next year will be good to make coffee go up, or bad to make it fall (or vice versa)... And if the market is fair, than there is no such thing as undervalued or overvalued stock, unless you are super quick scalper arbitraging with opportunities which usually lasts under 1-5 min....
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Old 24-02-2006, 11:41   #55
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Re: Are currency markets random?

TraderABC does have a very solid and STRICT point. He's probably the smartest ifnor most "cleverest" trader i've ever seen speak freely on ANY board. He can almost see it for what it really is.

You don't need an advanced education, or even "smart judgement" and sound mind to see why everyone fails and this market can't be consistant, nor "semi-beaten" as you so called PROS out it.

Random, yes it.

I agree, now let's skill the Forex Terminology and Education for just 10 minutes, because this will lead to something simple. You don't need years of experience to see this. The experienced traders, the semi-verterans, i don't mean to offend you, but. Gambling is simply gambling and so is investing, hence random.

Here, let me explain.

Anytime you base any type of income, or "money" on the line. Due to a "system strategy", a market move prediction and a random guess at a BUY/SELL. You are still,

risking/gambling off of a hunch and the likeliness of where you believe that certain price will go with the market's random interference. I'm not saying that consistancy can't be gained from the FOREX, i mean. It is liquid and is very solid in returns, forward steady gains when staking out a profit on an investment. But, to all of you who are new, use a system, or are in a siminar to learn how to trade. It's not that hard to see, unless you are an actual psychic and can see the future. You are deluding yourself if you truely believe that you can cheat the market.



What makes me say that there is very little consistancy is investing vs gambling and "good guess system" trading at random loss? The fact that the simple term "investing" exists and means exactly what it says. And i truely believe that the way to trade is staring you right in the face and you donot need technical indicators, or even a report about where a company's random decision VS another business will go. All i see that people are being truely successful in using to even come close to "scalping", seemingly beating the market is.

There are using good, firm and strong money management, a system of less loss over gain and an easabilty at "predicting" a likely outcome if the market moves a certain way and a stop way out "stops/limits" incase it doesn't.



Then all, as i see it, again. All comes down to equating to just simply, another form of
"SMART MONEY MANAGEMENT" while teasing,

ifnot following the market while snatching/scapling as much as you can safely, before it moves against you? I'm just wondering why people are going to school for all of these advanced types of methods, studies on indicators and economic when randomly. You cannot control, nor exactly predict ANY market and are just using the same advanced, or lesser advanced strategies as a guy walking to the next Casino Table in Queens?!

So, it all comes down to, how hard you are willing to work to realize the very same simple concept, building your and it's potential. Currency trading is random in my opinion, simply why?!

Because, you're following and predicting what you're getting, not KNOWING as a guarantee, hence "investing". Which is a very close cousin to gambling. It's been proven, but consistancy has been proven also, but still.

Just because trading is consistant if you have a system, and know how to do it, DOESN'T eliminate the cold hard facts. I see this as just another "Professional way of Respectable Gambling". It's just a shame that the die hards that do make money willnot admit to it. And to the other 95% that lose money are too blind and ambitious to see it. It's just Smart Gambling and Sharp money management to get you there. You don't need a book, or years of investment schooling to tell you that.

This blog also posses, a good read.
You should check it out.


http://kimsnider.blogs.com/my_weblog...ine_inves.html

But, trading is fun, eitherway, just not with my own real money unless a system can be proven consistant, by my own terms, the market is steady moving. Movement that you can and cannot track, STILL = Randomness

Stillness= Consistancy, but. However random, good accurate predictions and consistancy can be achieved. Hence, why i believe that most indicators are a waste of time and are just "smoothing and chasing out prices", just in their own simi -predictable way. I also wonder why you see so much of this about the New York Stock Exchange and The Chicago Mercental so much over the news channels as if they're so professional and hard to get it to. When it shares the very same propertys as a "Bet Exchange" market, but i bet you've never even heard of them, have you?!

So, this also leads me to believe that this is another way that markets, and marketers make even more money, promoting their platform for the rich and hungry while the uneducated, or foolish all chase the very same dream. But, the smart ones that think outside of the box know exactly what it is are more than likely are that 5 to 7% that are the actual profiters of this market.

All share one powerful thing in common, they realize. That they can't control a Trend, or when the market's Trend is likely. So, how do we treat this logic. A "Good Guessing Game" when smart money control, or inside information is all i can say is the way they succeed so highly. If everyone is busting their humps, even the most professional and most clever minds have done this in trading for years ALWAYS fail, what makes you think you can beat it also?

If the only successful few are in the 5-8%, then lay down the math.
That's about a couple hundred thousand compared to over about say over 30 to a hundred millions foolish investors. So, that makes you ask yourself,

how are they doing it so well and never almost EVER lose and come out 90% gains over 10% overall yearly loss?! Trying something differently is all i can see. Smart Money Managing and good Scalping on your predictions, either be indicated, or fundamented there, for you.

However, technique wise.

I've heard more good things about Trend Trading over popular indicators and fundamentals is also good and misunderstood, well abit slow at the moment for the US i hear. I believe that ANY time i am exchanging something to you and you are exchanging something back in return, but. Neither one of us know EXACTLY if i or you will BOTH gaurantee the same returns, ifnot more on equal. Least i get my money back completely on that exchange, or more than with, or without a system, consistant, or not. I believe that in that transaction, or "market", it is still considered and proven buy lossing out on that transaction is simply, random. Over hopes and dreams which would i rather have, overall.

Cost and neglect, over less and more less gain, likely on a wavering business transaction that is setup for both of you to fail, or lose out completely. I still feel that this whole new "public market and investing" Forex thing is just a trap, a clever idea setup to wedge alot more money from the
"average investor" while inflating his head with "hope and dreams on winning".

While the smart average investor, which is probably at 1% found a consistant and steady way to scalp the market before it actually has found out what he was doing. And i don't mean a small 60 to 100 pip return. I'm talking 600 to 900 pips on an average, but.

Even if they continue to hedge this kind of profit on a standard account, only time will tell, if and WHEN it itself stops working.

Why do you think they've suddenly made trading public and free all of the sudden without the 10 to $20,000 investment which is now considered Spot Forex and E Currencys?! The Stock Market is dying out, just ask anyone.
How do you save a bear, over the bull kind of markey and continue to create huge profit and revenue?!

Simple, make the trading public and CHEAP!
i gotta give it to those SOB's that have aided in this idea, THEY ARE DAMN GOOD and we fell for it! The average investor.

My fellow newbies, any comments?

Last edited by kaZza sg : 24-02-2006 at 12:52.
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Old 24-02-2006, 12:26   #56
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Re: Are currency markets random?

To aid in the further contour of my question. Regarding a market's random movement, steadying the loss over gaining while taking a small hit over it's movement. Added, my opinion about Brokers.

Why have a broker when you can intreday, yearly trade on your own?

No need to sound brash, but. That's what the console/platform you're trading on is for, why not bankers and accountants? They sell you currencys while trying to help you trade them?

If i am going to lose, or make money at ANY type of market, or busines, then why do i need some guy telling me why and how i should do it? The only flat out reason i would use a broker for as opposed to a "bookie". Or, "BOOKER" as i call them, would be. To control margin loss ACCURATELY because yes computers can fail sometimes and a want a consistant report on my loss incase it fails, and. There is always ofcourse why brokers are so widely popular now compared to over 20 years ago.



Hence, if they didn't offer, nor had this. I don't even believe that we would need a broker, feeding his, or her's commission,



The leverage they offer is extraordinary in this one compared to STOCKs and funds. A take and give, or a give, give, take all if you lose it? Do we need brokers, really? And if so, how do they contribute to you getting over, over all. Not for themselves is another question that i have.
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