Are currency markets random?

[kaZza sg]

The topic starter makes ALOT of sense, but. I myself have to wonder. How much time does it take to realize that. Lost hope into denying that this is simply "smart gambling" when you invest in ANY market?!

Wake up, please.

This just supports my statements, casino house wins. But, they have to make it seem as if ANYONE can win, which. Isn't being proven, even to this day.
10% winners on the Forex?

You get atleast 40% where that came from playing craps and roulette. Which just as much profit from trading. Sad, but true. I think that alot of you want to pretend this is something it isn't. What you've seen on TV and hear so much about on the news. "Professional Investing", but. You choose not to call it what it really is and is steadly proving to be.

Crowd And Place Gambling where the house beats you and you also beat each other. Eitherway, the Forex/House wins. All played off your
"hopes and dreams" that you believe when come someday. The win.

Like i said before,

Forex is ecavtly what it tells you to do.

It is the "Sell"
Your hopes and dreams are the......."Buy".

Guess which Trend is winning?!!?!?!?!?

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showt...ht=soil+trader

[candymr2]

No.

When the Fed or the ECB says that they are going to raise rates, or do raise rates, that currency appreciates against the other.

Is that random?

I think not. It is fundamental.

The problem is people try to see things that aren't there, because they want to become a billionaire overnight. They then become delusional and start gambling on trades. Instead of sitting, waiting for the trades to come to you.

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

[kaZza sg]

Despite the hear say on the release of a report, you can still lose out over an inaccurate swing in price. But, if what you say is true and isn't considered random. Then, why isn't everyone profiting from it?!

People have went to school for years to learn the perception and inaccurates and estimated guessing techniques of investing and STILL lose money. What makes you think you, the average consumer investor, who only knows a small portion can win. Especially based off a simple report?! That report could plundge even if they had a good month prior to it's release. You can't control what you can't see.

Accurate estimate in finding a price says the market isn't random, NOT a fundamental report, or an educated systematic 'guess'.....


Until the other 90% of traders who lose actual do start to win, then i guess you, yourself are also contributing to the 'stop hurting my feelings, it can be done' arguement. And even if you yourself actually do profit, i HIGHLY can invest a theroy that.



STRONG Money Management is how you rep your profits consistantly,
that's smart gambling if you didn't know. I don't need Forex to tell me that,
common sense does. Or else, EVERYONE even the smart investors wouldn't lose.

1+1= 2, not 1+1 may equal 3 if i do this.
You can't skip from A to C, the B is the market moves, the human mind isn't. The C is all they are telling you, but YOU NEED the B. Which is why everyone loses. The system users are in the 10% because they win cheating the B before it ever even happens. Well, atleast not as fast. Even with a system, not even your system can still continue to keep smooth track of a random price change. Good luck is what i've seen most good traders beneif. But, don't take my word for it.

It's a bear market, and bulls just get mad when it never goes their way, but keep coming back. Hence, NOBODY wants to sell, everybody wants the good old buy, so. You all make the same safe, useless and dangerous moves and THE MARKETS actually sees this. If you look hard enough over your chart, the moves are always similiar, but never the same. Too bad so many people never see it to the end. That they/The Forex is USING YOU, all of you.

It's gambling.
Now, if you want to call it "Business Gambling" so that will hon your ego, then by all means. Keep watching WallStreet, a great film by the way. But, please.

Admitt to it.

The real people who profit are the banks, brokers and Forex software holders and system makers. Cause, they ALL bank off of your hopes and dreams and continue to sell you on the idea. That, you'll profit decently in the long run.

Oh, you didn't know?

Your broker also gets commission from bankers and affiliates, not just from you when he sells you an account, or when you make a pip gain, or loss on a spread. Why do you think leverage is so easy to gain these days and at such a cheap price? Compared to say, 1989?!?!

Used and abused, but hey.
Goodluck to you, all of you. May you learn from this serious venture, you are atleast getting something from all of your time and hopes, losss of money and investing.


Your getting what you give out and get back from them,
hope and a headache.

[kaZza sg]

here's a small tip:



the real profit is gained from people who run things and create stuff that sells, NOT from the people who buy/invest into the idea that they can actually beat the people that they buy from.....

A bear market, take no prisionors and trust noone, or haven't you been watching the world lately?! There is an ebook out called,

The Rich Jerk.

I believe that all of you should check it out, and perhaps if you do. You'll see just why you're cheating yourselves and really not them. Which is what you all are really after, an easy buck?! Trust me, it can be done, but investing WON'T help you do it. But, until you do realize that, you'll probably just be sitting here for another 3 or years years like the next guy. Success storys, limited and eventually even that person's success and system will run out.

How's it feel to be used and abused?

I ask all investors that, either profitable, or not. How's it feel?

[candymr2]

life is a gamble.

[vision3001]

You may enjoy reading this publication titled "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis"
1. http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/125.html
2. http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/Osle01.pdf
3. More: http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/
4. More: http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/

Happy reading and profiteering

Originally Posted by TraderABC

Hi all.

Are currency markets random or do they have a non-random element. If so how much? TA signals are rarely super profitable, and most of them are too similiar to each other. The fact that some traders make money is not a proof of market predictability. There are millions of traders, some of them may simply get lucky.
Clicking buttons is not laying bricks in -40 weather... Very often this or that "Guru" tells us about this or that secret method from Japan centuries ago or whatever... Well anyone can put their signal on a chart and find a chart that shows how the method works well and shows that the price is not random. It is unprofitable for people to sell their systems if market is random, plus it hits your pride knowing that your success was due to luck... Even if the market is predictable, ordinary people like us probably cannot workout the formula for prediction and those who know will not release it. If there is a 100% can't fail model of price action if enough people use it it fails....

Any way to statistically measure if the market is random or not? I've heard something about hurst measurements. Am I supposed to use O H L C or OHLC/4 ? How many candles should be there to form a statistical answer?

Thank you all. I hope that market is not random and people can make money there...

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by vision3001

You may enjoy reading this publication titled "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis"
1. http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/125.html
2. http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/Osle01.pdf
3. More: http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/
4. More: http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/

Happy reading and profiteering

Thank you very much for thos links. However here are my comments:

1)Vast majority of articles there are for the STOCK, STOCK market. Only newbies think that stock market has ANY resemblence to FOREX (which I assume that all of study on this site).

2) "The balance of supply and demand, or market action, is the root of price setting. "
http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/

3)Mass emotions making trends and crowd - Psychology of Elder.

Overrated. The big dogs who DO move the market are not emotionally unstable to a degree where they make irrational choices and panic.

There is no supply/demand in the Forex, only in the commodity markets it plays a role.

[vision3001]

Thank-you for your comments. Similarly, experienced info searchers would be able to locate more than 2% of the publications relating to currencies and forex. Furthermore, there are articles in the equity world that are also applicable to the forex world.

The additional websites given are focused on the partial question on technical analysis and not forex per se.

Happy searching.

Originally Posted by TraderABC

Thank you very much for thos links. However here are my comments:

1)99% of articles there are for the STOCK, STOCK market.
Only newbies think that stock market has ANY resemblence to FOREX (which I assume that all of study on this site).

2) "The balance of supply and demand, or market action, is the root of price setting. "
http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/

3)Mass emotions making trends and crowd - Psychology of Elder.

Overrated. The big dogs who DO move the market are not emotionally unstable to a degree where they make irrational choices and panic.

There is no supply/demand in the Forex, only in the commodity markets it plays a role.