forex arbitrage?

[roycetrade]

Any info would help such as some ps moving earlier than others generally do.

for example usd jpy moves up real fast then a few minutes later the euro usd drops similarly or is it always simultaneous any info on arbitrage in forex markets would be greatly appreciated

[ajhardesty]

Not sure what you're looking to do but if you want a direct hedge where you can't buy sell the same p look at EUR/USD USD/CHF. They are mirror images.

[Gamma_Jammer]

Originally Posted by roycetrade

Any info would help such as some ps moving earlier than others generally do.

for example usd jpy moves up real fast then a few minutes later the euro usd drops similarly or is it always simultaneous any info on arbitrage in forex markets would be greatly appreciated

That rather depends on what's happening to the relevant cross rate (EUR/JPY in your example).

However if you're talking about broad dollar movement I often find that in the very short term USD/CHF often leads Aussie often lags.

Please note however that what you're talking about isn't really arbitrage it's probably better described as correlated trading.

GJ

[mrbrint]

Yeah correlations are interesting. what Ive read seen as a example the gbp/usd will move faster in wider swings than the euro but they will move generally in correlation.

[roycetrade]

yes you guys are right this would not be arbitrage but a correlation thank you for clarifying that for me. Is there any good reading you could reccomend about how ps move togeather I appreciete the observations you have provided already

[TRYFX]

We had posted this before in earlier thread here are some correlations..hope there helpful.
Refer here for further info free access to "Live Webinars
Currency Correlations

To be an effective trader understing your overall portfolio's sensitivity to market volatility is important. But this is particularly so when trading forex. Because currencies are priced in ps no single p trades completely independently of the others. Once you know about these correlations how they change you can take advantage of them to control over your portfolio's exposure.


Defining Correlation
The reason for the interdependence of currency ps is easy to see: if you were trading the British pound against the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY p) for example you are actually trading a kind of derivative of the GBP/USD USD/JPY ps; therefore GBP/JPY must be somewhat correlated to one if not both of these other currency ps. However the interdependence among currencies stems more than the simple fact that they are in ps. While some currency ps will move in tem other currency ps may move in opposite directions which is in essence the result of more complex s.

Correlation in the financial world is the statistical measure of the relationship between two securities. The ranges between -1 +1. A correlation of +1 implies that the two currency ps will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 implies the two currency ps will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero implies that the relationship between the currency ps is completely rom.

Reading The Correlation Table
With this knowledge of correlations in mind let's look at the following tables each showing correlations between the major currency ps for the month of March 2005.


The upper table above shows that over the month of March (one month) EUR/USD AUD/USD had very strong positive correlation of 0.94. This implies that when the EUR/USD rallies the AUD/USD will also rally 94% of the time. Over the longer term (three months) though the correlation is slightly weaker (0.47).

In contrast the EUR/USD USD/CHF had a near-perfect negative correlation of -0.99. This implies that 99% of the time when the EUR/USD rallies USD/CHF will undergo a selloff. This relationship even holds true over longer periods as the correlation figures remain relatively stable.


Yet correlations do not always remain stable. Take USD/CAD NZD/USD for example. With a coefficient of -0.94 they had a strong negative correlation over the past year but the relationship deteriorated over March 2005 for a number of factors including the Reserve Bank of New Zeal's intentions to resume rate hikes political instability in Canada.

Correlations Do Change
It is clear then that correlations do change which makes following the shift in correlations even more important.Sentiment global economic factors are very dynamic can even change on a daily basis.Strong correlations today might not be in line with the longer-term correlation between two currency ps.That is why taking a look at the six-month trailing correlation is also very important.This provides a clearer perspective on the average six-month relationship between the two currency ps which tends to be more accurate.Correlations change for a variety of reasons the most common of which include diverging monetary policies a certain currency p’s sensitivity to commodity prices as well as unique economic political factors.

Here is a table showing the six-month trailing correlations that EUR/USD shares with other ps:




Calculating Correlations Yourself
The best way to keep current on the direction strength of your correlation pings is to calculate them yourself. This may sound difficult but it's actually quite simple.


To calculate a simple correlation just use a spreadsheet like Microsoft Excel. Many charting packages (even some free ) allow you to download historical daily currency prices which you can then transport into Excel. In Excel just use the correlation function which is =CORREL(range 1 range 2). The one-year six- three- one-month trailing readings give the most comprehensive view of the similarities differences in correlation over time; however you can decide for yourself which or how many of these readings you want to analyze.


Here is the correlation-calculation process reviewed step by step:

1. Get the pricing data for your two currency ps; say they are GBP/USD USD/JPY
2. Make two individual columns each labeled with one of these ps. Then fill in the columns with the past daily prices that occurred for each p over the time period you are analyzing
3. At the bottom of the one of the columns in an empty slot type in =CORREL(
4. Highlight all of the data in one of the pricing columns; you should get a range of cells in the formula box.
5. Type in comma
6. Repeat steps 3-5 for the other currency
7. Close the formula so that it looks like =CORREL(A1:A50B1:B50)
8. The number that is produced represents the correlation between the two currency ps

Even though correlations do change it is not necessary to update your numbers every day updating once every few weeks or at the very least once a month is generally a good idea.

How To Use It To Manage Exposure
Now that you know how to calculate correlations it is time to go over how to use them to your advantage.


First they can help you avoid entering two positions that cancel each other out For instance by knowing that EUR/USD USD/CHF move in opposite directions nearly 100% of time you would see that having a portfolio of long EUR/USD long USD/CHF is the same as having virtually no position - this is true because as the correlation indicates when the EUR/USD rallies USD/CHF will undergo a selloff. On the other h holding long EUR/USD long AUD/USD is similar to doubling up on the same position since the correlation is so strong.


Diversification is another factor to consider. Since the EUR/USD AUD/USD correlation is traditionally not 100% positive traders can use these two ps to diversify their risk somewhat while still maintaining a core directional view. For example to express a bearish outlook on the USD the trader instead of buying two lots of the EUR/USD may buy one lot of the EUR/USD one lot of the AUD/USD. The imperfect correlation between the two different currency ps allows for more diversification marginally lower risk. Furthermore the central banks of Australia Europe have different monetary policy biases so in the event of a dollar rally the Australian dollar may be less affected than the Euro or vice versa.


A trader can use also different pip or point values for his or her advantage. Lets consider the EURUSD USDCHF once again. They have a near-perfect negative correlation but the value of a pip move in the EURUSD is $10 for a lot of 100000 units while the value of a pip move in USDCHF is $8.34 for the same number of units. This implies traders can use USDCHF to hedge EURUSD exposure.


Here's how the hedge would work: say a trader had a portfolio of one short EUR/USD lot of 100000 units one short USD/CHF lot of 100000 units. When the EUR/USD increases by ten pips or points the trader would be down $100 on the position. However since USDCHF moves opposite to the EURUSD the short USDCHF position would be profitable likely moving close to ten pips higher up $83.40. This would turn the net loss of the portfolio into minus $16.60 instead of minus $100. Of course this hedge also means smaller profits in the event of a strong EUR/USD sell-off but in the worst-case scenario losses become relatively lower.


Regardless of whether you are looking to diversify your positions or find alternate ps to leverage your view it is very important to be aware of the correlation between various currency ps their shifting trends. This is powerful knowledge for all professional traders holding more than one currency p in their trading accounts. Such knowledge helps traders diversify hedge or double up on profits.

Summary
To be an effective trader it is important to underst how different currency ps move in relation to each other so traders can better underst their exposure. Some currency ps move in tem with each other while others may be polar opposites. Learning about currency correlation helps traders manage their portfolios more appropriately. Regardless of your trading strategy whether you are looking to diversify your positions or find alternate ps to leverage your view it is very important to keep in mind the correlation between various currency ps their shifting trends.

[mrbrint]

good stuff thanks

[Gamma_Jammer]

Originally Posted by mrbrint

good stuff thanks

Yes

Good post but I'd still be mindfulof the the fact that it's a tad more complex than that. For example with the EUR/USD + USD/CHF positions in the example given the one thing that can catch you out is a dramatic move in EUR/CHF (which is effectively pretty much what you hold (depending on the relative sizes of the two positions.

This p while fly sedate most of the time tends to move a lot during times of geopolitical tension (when people rush to Swissy as a safe haven currency). SO at the time when you may most want protection volatility that protection is at risk of evaporating.

My $0.02 as usual

GJ