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Old 12-02-2006, 20:18   #9
paul2657
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Re: forex arbitrage?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamma_Jammer
Yes,

Good post, but I'd still be mindfulof the the fact that it's a tad more complex than that. For example with the EUR/USD + USD/CHF positions in the example given, the one thing that can catch you out is a dramatic move in EUR/CHF (which is effectively pretty much what you hold (depending on the relative sizes of the two positions.

This pair, while fairly sedate most of the time, tends to move a lot during times of geopolitical tension (when people rush to Swissy as a safe haven currency). SO at the time when you may most want protection from volatility, that protection is at risk of evaporating.

My $0.02 as usual

GJ
if i have a 1 lot EUR/CHF position (BUY), and i want to it to be completely hedged by selling EUR/USD and USD/CHF, what quantities of EUR/USD and USD/CHF would I need? i guess it would be 1lot EUR/USD, but would not be a whole-number lot of USD/CHF. is that correct? because if i did one lot of USD/CHF, i would not be US dollow neutral, nor would i be CHF neutral it seems...
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Old 13-02-2006, 13:33   #10
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Re: forex arbitrage?

You would sell 100k EURUSD and then calculate how many chf you have based on the current rate of eurchf. Lets say its 1.5550 x 100k = 155,500. You then take that figure and divide it by the current USDCHF rate, 155,500/1.3075= 118,929 dollars you would need to sell in USDCHF to have a flat position. I am not sure why you would want to do this but that is how you calculate it.
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Old 15-02-2006, 06:01   #11
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Re: forex arbitrage?

Nonpiker, thankyou for your reply.
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Old 16-02-2006, 11:51   #12
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Re: forex arbitrage?

Quote:
Originally Posted by paul2657
Nonpiker, thankyou for your reply.

NP as usual is right about the calculation. In terms of 'lots', it all depends on the definition of a 'lot' at a given booky. Is it $100k equivalent, regardless of the currency pair involved, or is it 100,000 of whatever the base currency is?

If it's in $ equivalent then of course you can easily create a true arb situation, while if it's in base currency terms it is harder (or even imposible depending on how finely you can control your trading size.

Incidentally this isn't a problem confined to the retail trading field. arbers run into this all the time as EBS, for example, allows one to trade in a minimum size of 1 million of base currency, so EUR 1M vs USD or CHF, but USD 1M vs CHF (USD vs EUR quoted the inverse way round does not attract any bids and offers on these systems). So a spot desk arber will constantly in theory be attracting little balances here and there. In practice though, these can be mitigated in a number of ways.

1) Not all three sides of the triangular arb are always executed on a screen based system. Sometimes a customer trade forms part of the arb (and is therefore not necessarily going to be in a round amount).

2) Also sometimes the trader will clear a position either via a voice broker or via a direct call to another bank. In each of these two cases the option is there to do a non round amount if it helps square the book.

3) Or they can simply take a view and run the small amount of risk until such time as it amounts to a market amount and then lob it out on D-2 or EBS as appropriate.

4) Or if they have a 'B desk' / 'Metro desk' or similar (i.e. a desk dealing entirely with the smaller stuff) they can clear it there (although not all banks have this type of setup).

5) Or some banks even have the single bank platform of another (usually larger) bank to use for a variety of situations. Squaring small amounts on these tools is easy.


GJ
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Old 16-02-2006, 12:08   #13
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Re: forex arbitrage?

lots of information guys thanks,
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Old 17-02-2006, 05:09   #14
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Re: forex arbitrage?

great post GJ. what confused me in some cases is where the booky is offering, for example, 1 lot EURUSD (lets say at 100:1) for 1000USD margin instead of 1000EURO = 1183USD (1euro=1.1883 today).
i remember thinking "hey that can't be right". because it's kind of like giving 1183USD for the price of 1000USD it seems....
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Old 17-02-2006, 08:07   #15
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Re: forex arbitrage?

Quote:
Originally Posted by paul2657
great post GJ. what confused me in some cases is where the booky is offering, for example, 1 lot EURUSD (lets say at 100:1) for 1000USD margin instead of 1000EURO = 1183USD (1euro=1.1883 today).
i remember thinking "hey that can't be right". because it's kind of like giving 1183USD for the price of 1000USD it seems....

I think the key thing here is to remember that they aren't GIVING you any money at all. They just presumably are happy, given the small account size, with the rounding error implied in the margin calculation that you listed.

But this is neither here nor there when it comes to actually making any money, so I wouldn't waste any brain power worrying about it if I were you. Plenty of more important things to worry about that are more directly concerned with your actual P+L column.

My $0.02

GJ
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Old 19-02-2006, 19:12   #16
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Re: forex arbitrage?

hi,
you can check Correlation @ this Link,


http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm

Thanks, FOREX4ME
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