Forex as a system... Who benefits? What internal rules exist in FX?

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by tommyfx

Hi ABC,

Look at a Eurodollar chart right now at time of writing 7:53 am (london Time) we have eur/usd at about 1.1939, as you can see price has fallen a long way and stopped here. WHy has it stopped here? Well zoom out to the 4hr and daily charts and you can see we are at a major support line. Because we have stopped and bounced at this level before this tells us the market (whether fixed or not) does not want to go below this point.

Hi tommyfx,
It could be true that graphical methods work. On other hand, if you draw enough lines some of them will be hit just by chance. Another thing that I probably didn't write clear enough. If rates are determined by supply demand,
than WHAT indicator says what people will do at that particular time.

Think about it, you would have to be VERY brave/foolish to place a sell order here because you know the USD is currently very expensive at this level. Other traders know this also so they are unlikely to place sell orders.

Or there could be a lot of sell stop orders below that strong support line and breakage could cause a BIG move down...

Thirdly the majority of the rest of indicators show you over bought/sold levels in a range, this is utterly pointless, get a ruler, draw a trend line and there you will see the true overbought oversold levels.

IF range trading was that easy as buy low and sell high... Sometimes what happens is the damn expanding triangle. You sell at the top, and price just moves up and up.... Think about it: tourist agencies constantly exchange money and banks move huge amounts of money each day... Why would these changes look like perfect ranges or trends (that work often enough) escape me...

But the real key to the market and the way people actually make money is not in the entry system, its in the exit, you could flip a coin, heads buy tails sell SL 10 TP 20 and you will probably make money because you have a 2:1 risk reward with a 50% accurate entry. What most newbies do is run losses and cut winners, so even if you are 90% accurate you will lose over the long run. You should be aiming for a 2:1 risk reward with an average system 50%-60% accurate, above 60% and you can get away with 1:1. The key is calculating what is a relistic TP i.e "am i likely to make 20 pips off this trade and if so does it make trading sense to have a stop 20-40 pips away? " These are the thoughts traders have, not is a 20,5 Ema cross better than my 40,3 Ema cross system and this is why most traders fail and then turn around and blame the market for being unpredictable.

I actually did test random entry... You could end up in pluses after a long time... But the drawdown are huge... Another little thing you forget:
If the markets cannot be predicted better than 50% NO risk/reward ratio will help in the long while. If you risk 1 for 3, then you will be stopped out 3x as much. If you do vice versa, your losess will be 3x as great as wins... Any way you would be lucky to end up with the money you have started in a LONG WHILE>

Yes banks/institutions do step in and stop the currency from falling, but this isnt "fixing the market" or making it unfair,

Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks...

this is one of the main reasons we have FOREX so people can do this, fixing would just be not publishing offers below a certain price even though supply was there to push it down, this doesnt happen, if a bank wants to risk hundreds of millions of dollars to stop USD dropping thats their problem, they are jumping in the market like the rest of us, hoping their demand for the dollar will prop it it, sometimes it works and sometimes it doent (i.e when a resistance level fails) as a trader we must assess whether the banks demand to prop the dollar up is greater than the supply that wants to see it drop. You cant programme that into a computer, that is skill.

And what holds banks from not posting rates they do not want us to enter at? And finally in your last sentence ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT RATES ARE CALCULATED BY HANDS EVERY SECOND FOR ~100 of pairs?

[tommyfx]

Hi there,

"It could be true that graphical methods work. On other hand, if you draw enough lines some of them will be hit just by chance. Another thing that I probably didn't write clear enough. If rates are determined by supply demand,
than WHAT indicator says what people will do at that particular time"

NO indicator will tell you what people are likely to do at that particular time, indicators give you a picture of what has happened/is happening, its down to you to collect this information and "anticipate" the move. If indicators told you what people were going to do nobody would take an opposite position to you, there would be no market, perhaps thats where you fail. Stochastics may read oversold but that doesnt mean the market will be bought back, thats what a newbie thinks, a trader thinks, "ok we are at risk of an oversold pullback but i feel there is more downside to this market and we have just breached a support, i have a mixed picture of the market so am standing aside"

"

Think about it, you would have to be VERY brave/foolish to place a sell order here because you know the USD is currently very expensive at this level. Other traders know this also so they are unlikely to place sell orders.

Or there could be a lot of sell stop orders below that strong support line and breakage could cause a BIG move down..."

Exactly right, there are a lot of sell stop orders below that support, and it will cause a big move down, but placing a sell stop order below the support isnt the same as placing a sell order at the support. A stop order is just that, if the prices made a BIG move down that may not be due to people calling the market bearish, but instead its the bulls bailing out because that support was breached.

"IF range trading was that easy as buy low and sell high... Sometimes what happens is the damn expanding triangle. You sell at the top, and price just moves up and up.... Think about it: tourist agencies constantly exchange money and banks move huge amounts of money each day... Why would these changes look like perfect ranges or trends (that work often enough) escape me..."

Maybe i missed your point, if you are saying tourist agencies and banks in terms of selling you Euro's for your holiday in Italy move huge amounts of money each day you couldnt be further from the truth, it is peanuts compared to what traders shift, you think the Jones family buying 1000 Dollars worth of Euros for a quick holiday actually have an effect on the market? And even if it did there would probably the Smith family from a EUro denominated country buying dollars which would cancel that move out overall. Tourist Agencies are dealing with £500 here $1000 there. It is nothing, they would have to do SO much business in a day for there to be a demand of just a million dollars more of one currency than any other. A million dollars is nothing, prop firms have their junior traders trading million dollar positions, its nothing, when you see a quick 10-20 point in forex move that would be cause by a few hundred million dollars worth of trade, and even that can be reversed in an instant, this isnt the stock market, a big trade in the stock market is like dropping a rock in a pond, a trade of that size in forex is like flicking a frozen pea into the ocean!
If your point was about where banks place orders in the market for speculative or hedging purposes, this isnt random, they place them at levels that make trading sense, such as 1.1930 in eurodollar, NOTHING is done by chance, a good trader knows where and why banks are placing these orders and therfore know to support their decision rather than fight it.

"Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks..."

Firstly by fixing i mean stopping a price falling below a certain level by exerting buying demand into the market, not fixing as in "rigging" (forex isnt a roulette wheel you can stick a magnet under), if a country started "rigging" forex or hiding economic releases they will very soon find themselfs a third world country because nobody will touch their currency, their currency might as well be coffee beans for all it will be worth, you think anyone wants to buy a unfairly manipulated currency? When banks "fix" levels in the market these are actually published and open for traders to view. Not only is this fair for the banks as you say but is also fair to us, instead of getting annoyed because your "indicators" say sell and you get annoyed because banks want to keep the currency higher forget the indicators and respect the people that actually move the market and follow them, you will find trading so much easier.

"And what holds banks from not posting rates they do not want us to enter at? And finally in your last sentence ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT RATES ARE CALCULATED BY HANDS? "

If banks started not showing us lower prices even though there was selling pressure there to force it lower, FOREX would be a joke, worthless, banks wouldnt need to trade any money in the markets they would just keep it where they want, the whole FOREX system would be abandoned, and the financial world would fall into chaos. If the bank was found out it would face massive effects, nobody would ever trade with it again, you could be looking at a bank going out of business!! The effects are too huge to imagine. The FX rates you see come from multiple banks, which are all in competition with each other, if one bank fixed prices the others would quickly blow the whistle on them, it would be so obvious, the list of reasons of how obsured price fixing in the forex market is endless. Trust me, the FX markets are NOT fixed!
As for your "calculated by hands comment" i have no idea what that means, i was making the point you cant backtest a strategy that compensates for market experience, learning when to stand aside expecting a possible break of a support, detecting what the mood of the market is because your lagging indicators having caught up yet. YOu cant backtest a system effectively because it is the human element that makes a trader a good trader. You could programme a robot to drive a car, but what any driver knows there are so many outside factors you have to look out for, would you want to drive in that car?

I hope to clear you mind, and hope you realise the markets are predictable, arent fixed and you will make money from them if you realise what actually drives them, the market players drive the market which effect indicators. YOu seem to rely on indicators and hope indicators drive the major players, this is wrong.

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by tommyfx

NO indicator will tell you what people are likely to do at that particular time, indicators give you a picture of what has happened/is happening, its down to you to collect this information and "anticipate" the move.

Here is the problem. We don't know what people will do (maybe a person needs to study Astrology or divination? ). Action of some people may make all the stuff technicals obsolete... Again, I am not interested in gambling, but working, and this doesn't sit well with me.

Maybe i missed your point, if you are saying tourist agencies and banks in terms of selling you Euro's for your holiday in Italy

I guess I wasn't clear. What I am trying to say is how can a triangle or any/most other technical figures have any relevance to what is happening in the real world (currencies changing hands, banks changing money, tourists organizations exchanging currency, pension and other funds, etc).

"Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks..."
Firstly by fixing i mean stopping a price falling below a certain level by exerting buying demand into the market,

Why do the large banks (I am talking about largest and most influential Consortium of Banks) need to benefit us? They have their own (and national) interests first. What stops banks from refusing to put quotes below X.XXXX ? Forex isn't regulated as much as the Stock market.

not fixing as in "rigging" (forex isnt a roulette wheel you can stick a magnet under),

Currency rates are too important for us, imbeciles (in economic sense), to be allowed to be moved where we want. Banks follow big boyz, not us.

if a country started "rigging" forex or hiding economic releases they will very soon find themselfs a third world country because nobody will touch their currency, their currency might as well be coffee beans for all it will be worth, you think anyone wants to buy a unfairly manipulated currency?

Wait a second! How many times were data released revised? A lot. Plus do you really trust the gov't to release its info 100% complete and 100% true?
Eatin' ain't cheating. Remember the surplus during Clinton Administration?
All the surplus wasn't there. 203.2 billion of dollars (surplus?) revised to 89.8 billion deficit... Wouldn't surprise me....

If banks started not showing us lower prices even though there was selling pressure there to force it lower, FOREX would be a joke, worthless, banks wouldnt need to trade any money in the markets they would just keep it where they want, the whole FOREX system would be abandoned, and the financial world would fall into chaos. If the bank was found out it would face massive effects, nobody would ever trade with it again, you could be looking at a bank going out of business!! The effects are too huge to imagine.

Maybe this is what happens. When most, lets say 90% of the traders bought at 1.2000 (what the banks sold), what prevents banks from moving the quotes down??!! (especially if there is a short term need for quotes to be lowered?). How can you PROVE to the agencies (who could've been bought long ago) that the market is fixed?

The FX rates you see come from multiple banks, which are all in competition with each other, if one bank fixed prices the others would quickly blow the whistle on them, it would be so obvious, the list of reasons of how obsured price fixing in the forex market is endless. Trust me, the FX markets are NOT fixed!

Why do the major banks (and brokers) have rates that are way too similiar to each other??? DO all the people in different brokerage house every second
do exactly the same trades? 24/5???? Can you imagine the possible arbitrage if banks showed vastly different rates? What keeps their rates similiar (perhaps the same if you take the broker spreads/cuts) ?

i was making the point you cant backtest a strategy that compensates for market experience, learning when to stand aside expecting a possible break of a support, detecting what the mood of the market is because your lagging indicators having caught up yet. YOu cant backtest a system effectively because it is the human element that makes a trader a good trader. You could programme a robot to drive a car, but what any driver knows there are so many outside factors you have to look out for, would you want to drive in that car?

I agree 100%.

what actually drives them, the market players drive the market which effect indicators.

It seems that today with computer tech it all points that OUR orders do not drive. Not in the FX... Think about it, if you organized a game, who would you make win (yourself, the house) or your clients?

[tommyfx]

"Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyfx
NO indicator will tell you what people are likely to do at that particular time, indicators give you a picture of what has happened/is happening, its down to you to collect this information and "anticipate" the move.

Here is the problem. We don't know what people will do (maybe a person needs to study Astrology or divination? ). Action of some people may make all the stuff technicals obsolete... Again, I am not interested in gambling, but working, and this doesn't sit well with me."

Ok then, assume you set up a car lot, and buy a load of cars to sell, can you guarantee you will sell them for a profit?
Or you go into property development, do you KNOW what the housing market will do in a 18 months?
Of course not, business is a gamble, we just use our skill and judgement to make accurate predictions. Making these accurate predictions is work, but there will always be an element of gamble, if you dont like risk try working as a bus driver or postman, most of us were initially drawn to trading because of the gains you can make, those gains come at a price, risk, but it isnt a gamble because there isnt an edge, (ok the broker has a spread) but that isnt a house edge as such, the markets can be traded profitably/cracked/however you want to put it, a casino cant.

" I guess I wasn't clear. What I am trying to say is how can a triangle or any/most other technical figures have any relevance to what is happening in the real world (currencies changing hands, banks changing money, tourists organizations exchanging currency, pension and other funds, etc)."

Because they look at the same charts as we do and make decisions on that. To make my point clearer we will take someone that isnt speculating, an exporter for example. In order to offset their costs they need to hedge by buying cheap euro's, what is the cheapest they can get the price, in the next few days? It would be wise to say at the bottom of the current trading range, so at the nearest support level there will now be a massive buy order from an exporter, but they dont do it in one go, that would be risky, they may buy 100 million Euros at support level X, price drifts up for a few hours, then comes down gain to X, they execute the next part of their order and they keep doing this. This is what exporters do, banks do, hedge funds do, prop traders do and therefore what we must do.
Try to remember, NOBODY is bigger than FX, they look at the market as we do and make their decisions as we do, the only difference is their orders have an effect on the market, so we must pay even more attention to doing what we do.

"Quote:

"Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks..."
Firstly by fixing i mean stopping a price falling below a certain level by exerting buying demand into the market,

Why do the large banks (I am talking about largest and most influential Consortium of Banks) need to benefit us? They have their own (and national) interests first. What stops banks from refusing to put quotes below X.XXXX ? Forex isn't regulated as much as the Stock market. "

Banks make money from us trading through them, (remember spreads) if there was selling demand it would be in their interest to keep quoting prices to sell at and vice versa, by not showing us quotes they are turning away business. Not to mention all the legal issues i and total impossibilities of this happening i stated in my last reply. The banks do stop currencies from falling by buying rather than just not showing lower prices for so many other reason, i dont mean to sound patronising but please read some econimcs books, price is based around value, the FX market is just a derivitive of this value, by not lowering the exchange rate because they dont want it lower is causing an imbalance between the derivative and the true value, long story short the economy will collapse because there will be no true value. ALSO, say Bank of England didnt want to quote any lower prices of sterling, this is FX remember, when you buy one currecy you sell the other, say BoE doesnt offer lower priced sterling, this doesnt stop american banks buying the dollar, which pushes GBP down also. For a bank to fix a currency they would have to agree with every other country/bank/econmy in the world to fix theirs also, in fact even arguing this point is getting ridiculous now.

"Wait a second! How many times were data released revised? A lot. Plus do you really trust the gov't to release its info 100% complete and 100% true?
Eatin' ain't cheating. Remember the surplus during Clinton Administration?
All the surplus wasn't there (I read that somewhere. I need to check). "

Yes data is revised, but when they revise it we find out the same time as everyone else and the market corrects itself so IF the original number wasnt accurate because some country wanted to lie about its currency value, the market would rip it to pieces once the revision came out. The market is always finding fair value

"Why do the major banks (and brokers) have rates that are way too similiar to each other??? DO all the people in different brokerage house every second
do exactly the same trades? 24/5???? Can you imagine the possible arbitrage if banks showed vastly different rates? What keeps their rates similiar (perhaps the same if you take the broker spreads/cuts) ?"

You've answered your own question, arbitrage plays keep everything in line, all the banks are assessing their values against each other to keep it fair, if they start quoting different prices the banks lose because we would just play them off against each other, not to mention the fact the spreads we would pay would be about 50 pips wide.

"It seems that today with computer tech it all points that OUR orders do not drive. Not in the FX..."

Im sorry but i really dont see why you keep thinking this, our orders as in you and i dont move the market because we are too small, but people out there such as institutional traders, banks, exporters, etc etc do drive the market, for the same reasons we would if we had billion dollar accounts.

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by tommyfx

Ok then, assume you set up a car lot, and buy a load of cars to sell, can you guarantee you will sell them for a profit?
Or you go into property development, do you KNOW what the housing market will do in a 18 months? Of course not, business is a gamble, we just use our skill and judgement to make accurate predictions. Making these accurate predictions is work, but there will always be an element of gamble, if you dont like risk try working as a bus driver or postman, most of us were initially drawn to trading because of the gains you can make, those gains come at a price, risk, but it isnt a gamble because there isnt an edge, (ok the broker has a spread) but that isnt a house edge as such, the markets can be traded profitably/cracked/however you want to put it, a casino cant.

Well in business there are higher ethical standarts than some brokers... You probably heard enough of problems with requotes, etc. Somewhere on this site there was a statement by someone whose highly successful trades were cancelled by Refco. I would like to see the relationship of requotes when you win big vs you loosing big....

Spreads are that edge that makes 50% accuracy rate UNWINABLE in the long run. Many systems when adjusted for spreads+commisions+slippage are much worse....

Because they look at the same charts as we do and make decisions on that.

Big banks have nothing better to do than to look at intraday charts and play equal with us?

Try to remember, NOBODY is bigger than FX,

Other than its organizers .

they look at the market as we do and make their decisions as we do,

And perhaps those banks who can, move the rates where they need them for maximum profit. Imagine if you could do that, wouldn't you? Imagine if some exporters phoned you and asked

"Tommy! We need you to lower quotes in few days. Could you please?"
"Sure. Wednesday after a brief rally up, I will lower the quotes."
Then you raise quotes by few 100 pips, sell billions of dollars and move the rates where your exporters need 'em. Of course during this time you have all the analytics saying how the price moved in accordance to some fundamentals, technicals, etc....

Again, the largest banks have their interests first. Not yours.

Banks make money from us trading through them, (remember spreads) if there was selling demand it would be in their interest to keep quoting prices to sell at and vice versa, by not showing us quotes they are turning away business.

The banks spreads are tiny compared to what most brokers give you. Knowing the greed that is part of our nature, why should they stop there? Furthermore
why should they sell when prices go up? How do they make money if their position turns against them? 1-10 pip spread doesn't cover it when prices move 100 pips against them!!!

Not to mention all the legal issues i and total impossibilities of this happening i stated in my last reply.

Who would stop them????!!!! Money rules politics...

The banks do stop currencies from falling by buying rather than just not showing lower prices for so many other reason,

Who makes the quotes tick on your screen? It is all electronic and this happens 1000s of times per day. WHAT STOPS THEM FROM REFUSING TO PUT QUOTES DAMAGING TO THEM?

i dont mean to sound patronising but please read some econimcs books, price is based around value,

Pardon me, I don't want to sound rude... But price in FX no longer seem to be based on value (atleast what we think).... What value of US dollar was in 9/11??? What value of dollar was during Katrina and other disasters? Why don't economists make the best traders? Financial world is based on money and power. Why should the banks allow the rates to float where WE want them to float? If it was so simple as following the news, watching PPI,CPI, etc then banks would loose big time as who would loose... Remember money doesn't grow on trees.

the FX market is just a derivitive of this value, by not lowering the exchange rate because they dont want it lower is causing an imbalance between the derivative and the true value, long story short the economy will collapse
because there will be no true value.

By giving the traders the ability to be able to move the currency allows it to drift God know where, which COULD cause financial collape.

ALSO, say Bank of England didnt want to quote any lower prices of sterling, this is FX remember, when you buy one currecy you sell the other, say BoE doesnt offer lower priced sterling, this doesnt stop american banks buying the dollar, which pushes GBP down also. For a bank to fix a currency they would have to agree with every other country/bank/econmy in the world to fix theirs also, in fact even arguing this point is getting ridiculous now.

When you lets say buy US dollars and sell lets say Euro. Are you really doing that? Do you realise how much it costs to transfer money between two countries and the amount of accounting paper work involved (especially today after 9/11)? And imagine how hard it would be to process 1000s of these orders per minute. Brokers being in for the money, would they go to these extremes?

arbitrage plays keep everything in line, all the banks are assessing their values against each other to keep it fair, if they start quoting different prices the banks lose because we would just play them off against each other, not to mention the fact the spreads we would pay would be about 50 pips wide.

But you have said that our supply/demand affects the rates. Now you are saying that they are "assessing their values against each other to keep it fair" , basicly keeping the rates similiar/identical to each other to avoid arbitrage.
I hope they aren't doing this manually....

Im sorry but i really dont see why you keep thinking this, our orders as in you and i dont move the market because we are too small, but people out there such as institutional traders, banks, exporters, etc etc do drive the market, for the same reasons we would if we had billion dollar accounts.

I am wondering if the order of that size could go through...

[vishalshan]

Nice post Tommyfx..

I have almost 2 years of forex exp now but still working hard to get the consistent profits.

When I started on Forex, I spent 2 whole months just to study the prospects and potentials of this field. Till I became completely satisfied that this is not another online casino game, I never touched any Forex book to study TA.
Once I got the complete faith, I never turned back. I gained this faith after doing careful research on my own and never buying other's view. That faith is growing day by day and keeps me working hard to reach the goal.

Shan

[tommyfx]

There are literally so many things i could comment on from your last thread, but i dont think it would make any difference, you seem convinced markets are manipulated and fixed.

I have worked for a firm trading the market, i know exactly how where and why markets move, i lose money on occasion like everyone, but when i do i know it is my fault and not the markets.

It really doesnt make any difference to me whether the market is one big fraud that is manipulated because it would be such a tiny tiny aspect of the market that were on "the inside" of this information and when all the other mugs that were caught out in this move started to react i would trade with them and profit that way.

If you want to believe the market is unpredictable, fixed, biased away from everyday intraday traders i dont suppose we will be seeing you around on these boards anymore? Seeing as whats the point in trading random odds? That truly is a shame because you clearly have the enthusiam and analytical mind to be a good trader if you could stop blaming the market rather than yourself for mistakes. If the markets were truly random there would be no successful traders, just like there are no successful full time roulette players. I and many other traders i know must just all be really really lucky i guess.

Its those people that try to fight the trend, look for things that arent there are the people that lose money, the markets do reflect fair vaue i can assure you but even if they didnt doesnt make any difference to me, if prices are unfairly fixed at X and the banks fraudulently not show any prices lower than X this is great!! Go long and the banks will make sure you never get stopped out, thats nice of them isnt it?
Or say the banks drive prices through a long held resistance even though there isnt enough real demand pressure to do so, i dont care either i'll just start buying when all the other poor people that fell victim to this unfair bank pricing start bailing out of their short positions.
Anyway you look at it i can make money, there is a pattern in everything, the ONLY way a totally random market will be impossible to trade is if prices were completely unrelated from the previous price i.e price jumped from x.xx60 to x.xx30 to x.xx37 to x.xx69 and if prices started doing that nobody would trade the market and forex would collapse.

Tom

[astro]

Hi TraderABC,

You actually answered every question raised here in your first post without even noticing!

You gave the example with the alien learning to play CHESS.

"Chess" actually crossed my mind a few days ago while surfing traders forums and running into the same over-asked questions/facts (90% fail..., new system that works..., new indicator...).

Here is what I came up with, and if you give it a little thought, you'll see how everything suddenly becomes clearer:

TRADING = PLAYING CHESS.

(with one exception: in trading, only YOU can lose, not the other party)

This explains everyhing. I mean EVERYTHING!
You are playing against the "market". Who is the market? I don't know. I don't really care. Banks, brokers, whatever, doesn't really matter.

Let's say you are new to chess. You want to start learning.
You buy books with rules and strategies (they all look the same). You learn basic moves, advanced moves, more complex strategies. Everything is understood.
Now you start playing against Kasparov (in trading: "the market"). But he kicks your ass! So you play another game against him. He kicks your ass again! And again! And again! What's happened? I learned the rules, I learned strategies, how come he's beating me all the time?

So you switch on your computer and start surfing the web. You run into some new strategies and chess forums, where you ask more experienced players for advice. They show you where you went wrong and give you some more strategies.
From time to time you'll run into a new thread starting with the words: "New system was found". In this thread, a player will demonstrate how his system works (ie, "when the bishop is on A2 and the queen is on G7, move 6 steps to the left"). He will give you some nice examples where this strategy/system works. In just 2 days, the thread will contain around 100 posts of newbies jumping over the new winning system, trying to improve it a bit, but all of them sure that they have found the holy grail. Kasparov, watch out!
You are one of them. You write down the new strategy and challenge Kasparov to the battle. And, what a surprise, it works! You have taken down one of his pawns! And then another one. But then, in a flick of an eye, you get check mated again. Bummer.
So you go back to the forums and ask the experienced players, what happened? They explain. They say you need to practice. They say that the strategies work MOST of the times. They say you need to WAIT for the right situation in order to activate the strategy. They say YOU NEED TO PRACTICE!

90% of those who started to learn how to play chess have quit! Why?
Maybe they didn't like the game.
Maybe they lost so many times that they have decided to give up. Instead of learning from their mistakes, consulting more experienced players, practicing, practicing and PRACTICING, they decided that all the books written by world champs are the same and are used to fill the champs' pockets. They decided that the strategies don't work. They have found out that playing chess IS VERY VERY COMPLICATED AND REQUIRES CONSTANT TRAINING AND HARD DECIPLINE ACCOMPANIED BY LOSSES OVER LOSSES, FRUSTRATION AND A STRONG URGE TO QUIT.

The rest of the players who have made up their minds that they wanna become real chess players will continue practicing, learning, asking questions and one day they will know how to play chess.
They won't beat Kasparov, but they will cause his heart to miss a beat or two. They will have great moves followed by losses, but the winning moves will shade them.
Some of the players will be better from the others. Some will make a career out of it. Some will do it for the fun of it. One thing will be common to them: they are now chess players.

I think it's very easy to see the similarity to trading.

IMHO, as long as you understand this and willing to become a trader, you'll be one.

Astro.