Forex as a system... Who benefits? What internal rules exist in FX?

[metal]

Originally Posted by graemenash

If that were true, the market would not exist.

Perhaps it's time to re-assess your strategy!

If what you say was true, gambling would not exist.

[metal]

Originally Posted by vishalshan

I'm simply wondering why you guys who think Forex is just gambling spend so much time on it. For your kind information, I had blown many accounts so far and last one being amounting to $4K. I know what I'm doing and these losses do not mean that brokers or Market have cheated me. I'm the one who had no idea about trading and learnt a lot of lessons from these losses. I have started doing way much better nowadays and the brokers or Market have not changed any better suddenly. It is tough to help you guys who don't want to accept your mistakes and keep putting the blame some where else.

Shan

There are many people who spend a great part of their lives trying to figure out how to pick the winning horse.
There are people who very strongly believe that a system can be created where they can be the winners in casino games.

Does that mean horse racing and casino games are not gambling?

[graemenash]

Originally Posted by metal

If what you say was true, gambling would not exist.

But we're not talking about gambling, are we?

[metal]

Originally Posted by graemenash

But we're not talking about gambling, are we?

Are you sure?

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by metal

There are many people who spend a great part of their lives trying to figure out how to pick the winning horse.
There are people who very strongly believe that a system can be created where they can be the winners in casino games.

Does that mean horse racing and casino games are not gambling?

In my humble view, the first question should be about the possibility of getting results better than 50/50, and only THEN think about a strategy. I mean what good is it to spend 12 hours a day 7 days a week studying charts, patterns, fundamentals, technicals if it all becomes for nothing???

If you have a system that performs (for real) better than 50/50, then it is no longer a gamble.

[tommyfx]

"In my humble view, the first question should be about the possibility of getting results better than 50/50, and only THEN think about a strategy. I mean what good is it to spend 12 hours a day 7 days a week studying charts, patterns, fundamentals, technicals if it all becomes for nothing???

If you have a system that performs (for real) better than 50/50, then it is no longer a gamble"

Trader ABC,

For once i am in agreement with you. It is no longer a gamble if you have better than 50/50 odds. Getting a better than 50% accurate entry is not that hard if you stop trying to think the market is out to get you and therefore try and do everything against what experienced traders tell you to do.
How many times have you picked a trade and made money on it? How many trades have you made and it went in the money then ended up losing? I bet this is probably more than 50%, depite the fact that it is totally crazy to think of the markets as a wild beast nobody can tame or predict, the fact all the times you have called the market correctly (whether or not you actually made money on it) is greater than 50% shows you the evidence is there, a good trader can predict the markets. For several years i have had about an 80% success strike rate, is this a fluke? In fact i would say somebody just starting to trade will have about a 70% success rate if they were to take their profits when their position was holding its optimum value (hope this makes sense). Obviously you only know this with hindsight, however the key to being a good trader is making a call which way the market will go (which is very straight forward if you open your eyes to the clues there) the VERY VERY hard part of trading and the reason nearly everyone struggles to make money is knowing when your position has made the most amount of money it is likely to do. This is why maths cant predict the market, because it is a combination of experience, personal risk reward ratio that allow you to take the profits that are there at the correct time. Instead of working on entry systems which are largely a waste of time (as you correctly state) work on calculating risks,
think:
"how much would this positon have to move against me before my reason for entry is negated?"
"what % of my capital will i risk on this trade" (this will vary on every trade depending on what your answer to the first question is.
"was my trade expecting a quick pull back or a sustained move, a quick pullback therefore i will only look for a few point profit"

Trust me, give up fiddling with indicators, trying to crack the market, just use simple well understood market rules to make your decisions, and then work tirelessly perfecting your risk management and your answers to the above questions and you will make money i guarantee it.

[forexhr]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

If you have a system that performs (for real) better than 50/50, then it is no longer a gamble.

The thing is that you have to enter the market when your chances to win are better than 50%. Research has proven that chart patterns like double and triple bottoms, head and shoulders, wedges, triangles, ... have high forecasting probabilities. So if you enter the market after this kind of patterns you can't lose in the long run.

One example:
According to Thomas Bulkowski research H&S formation has a failrue rate less then 10%, so your chances to win, if you play this pattern, are greater than 90%. Take a look at attached USDCAD 1 Hour chart. You have five H&S formations. If you had entered after well formed second shoulder, with stop loss near the head and with risk-reward ratio 1:1 you could win in all five trades.

I don't think this is gambling.

[faure]

It's good to see someone asking questions instead of believing everything that's touted as knowledge (although some of it may be true).

Trading is an unlimited sphere. There are no rules; all that matters is p&l. Why impose all these rules on yourself? Because it worked for someone does not mean it will work for you.

TABC, I seem to get the feeling that you think the market is unpredictable and random. The paradox here is that random events actually create patterns (don't take my word for it, check it for yourself). Some patterns and correlations are easier to see than others.

And do yourself a favour and forget about indicators aka price averages. The market can't be summed up in some quantifiable formulae. The answer is more abstract.