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[WhiteDove]

The Fed is certainly in a tough position with the street expecting a rate cut on Tuesday. On the other hand though is the inflation concern. Alan Greenspan said the Fed will have to raise interest rates to double-digit levels in coming years to thwart inflation.

Lowering interest rates with the markets just off of all time highs would send a clear signal that things are really not looking good for the US economy plus inflation is a huge concern with energy, health care, commodity, and food prices rising.

[outofdebt]

Be careful ! I got burned many, many times thinking the news was really gonna drive the market one way or the other. What I've noticed is that the market does just the opposite. Why ?

Because the news is already reflected in the price. "Buy the rumor, sell the fact. " I'm staying away from the market until at least an hour after the announcement. That will give it pleanty of time to settle down. Most of the Fed rate announcements I've observed usually result in a whipsaw.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a USD rally on Tues.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt, though.

[WhiteDove]

Be careful ! I got burned many, many times thinking the news was really gonna drive the market one way or the other. What I've noticed is that the market does just the opposite. Why ?

I only react to what is happening and so only trade what I see. I have learned never to impse my own will on the market.

Because the news is already reflected in the price. "Buy the rumor, sell the fact. " I'm staying away from the market until at least an hour after the announcement. That will give it plenty of time to settle down. Most of the Fed rate announcements I've observed usually result in a whipsaw.

I am a technician so of course I believe that charts always price everything in. However I guarantee the market does not know what exactly the feds comments and decision will be therefore it is not priced in. This will be confirmed by the change in price after the decision and the continuation in the days after wards.

I have been trading the Fed for eight years now. The most common pattern is off of the whip-saw you mentioned. But do not be fearful of it, embrace it. Large spike one direction (trades come in in follow that direction) followed by a large spike in the opposite direction (those same trades not sell at a loss and reverse their position - this is when I take a position in the direction of the original move) followed by an extended move back in the direction of the original spike (all the emotional trades are left sick to their stomachs).

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a USD rally on Tues.

I don't know - I never impose my will on the markets, but I will trade what I see ;-)

Take my opinion with a grain of salt, though.

Thank you!

[outofdebt]

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend you. I was merely commenting on your post. No harm intended. Seems like you may have taken my reply as an attack of your analysis. It wasn't intended to be.

I was just trying to add a little of my own experience with newstrading, that I learned the hard way, and share it here with others. Again, I'm sorry. You obviosly know a great deal more than me about trading.

It's just that most of us in this forum are beginners. This is the "beginners" forum, you know ? I've been trading for 3 years and I would still classify myself as a beginner. So, anyways, good luck to you and your trading.