how to beat the forex market

jgerousis · 27-03-2007, 17:04

Many traders have been trying for a long time to beat the forex. It is not easy. If someone comes and look at forex and how prices move, he would say it is easy. But it is not. It is very difficult, it is even difficult to make 1 pip! In forex you cannot have a guaranteed 1 pip. If someone does have a system to make a 1 pip "guaranteed", I will make him a millionaire.. oh no a TRILIONAIRE. Why? Because you can repeat the process again and again, and leverga it more and more! But this 1 pips guarantee is impossible.The main barrier to achieving this is the EDGE. Forex has an EDGE over us, the traders. Take for example the casino. Take the roulette. The edge in the roulette is the green zero, when playing on colors. And when playing on numbers, the edge is the payout. In Roulette there are 37 numbers. But if you guess the number you will win 36 to 1. Taking for granted that the outcome of the game are random numbers, then if you play for longterm you can never win. The same happens when betting on black or red. You get paid 2-1, but if the outcome is green, you lose!The same thing happens in forex. Do not tell me that forex is not random. If you look at forex closely you see that market moves in patterns or trends, but if you look at it from a wider view, the market is just a random market. NO ONE knows the outcome, even Bernanke. Because how traders act towards news, only God knows.Now, the Edge in forex market is the spread. Because everytime you enter a position pay for the spread. Before making any winning, you will have to counter this spread. If we suppose that we do a million random trade, we would not end up breakeven, but losing. This is why people say that all systems in longterm LOSE.This is a fact. But, one should be clever enough to come up with ways to eliminate this edge.The following are some suggestions and ways to eliminate this edge, which forex has over you.
1. USE a dealer which gives you the least spread available in market
2. USE a dealer with no comission
3. Use good exit strategies in winning trades (take profits)
4. Use wider stop trading. This is an important issue. Because according to above, you will tend to end up losing the longer or the more you trade. It is better to trade less and win more. For example, if you acheive your target for this month, you should stop trading until you see the conditions are favorable again. The less you trade the more chance you have to end up in profit.
5. Every pips counts. Try to save pips. See my previous tips "real trader's tips"
60 enter only low risk to reward ratio trades

MickMason · 27-03-2007, 23:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Many traders have been trying for a long time to beat the forex. It is not easy. If someone comes and look at forex and how prices move, he would say it is easy. But it is not. It is very difficult, it is even difficult to make 1 pip! In forex you cannot have a guaranteed 1 pip. If someone does have a system to make a 1 pip "guaranteed", I will make him a millionaire.. oh no a TRILIONAIRE. Why? Because you can repeat the process again and again, and leverga it more and more! But this 1 pips guarantee is impossible.The main barrier to achieving this is the EDGE. Forex has an EDGE over us, the traders. Take for example the casino. Take the roulette. The edge in the roulette is the green zero, when playing on colors. And when playing on numbers, the edge is the payout. In Roulette there are 37 numbers. But if you guess the number you will win 36 to 1. Taking for granted that the outcome of the game are random numbers, then if you play for longterm you can never win. The same happens when betting on black or red. You get paid 2-1, but if the outcome is green, you lose!The same thing happens in forex. Do not tell me that forex is not random. If you look at forex closely you see that market moves in patterns or trends, but if you look at it from a wider view, the market is just a random market. NO ONE knows the outcome, even Bernanke. Because how traders act towards news, only God knows.Now, the Edge in forex market is the spread. Because everytime you enter a position pay for the spread. Before making any winning, you will have to counter this spread. If we suppose that we do a million random trade, we would not end up breakeven, but losing. This is why people say that all systems in longterm LOSE.This is a fact. But, one should be clever enough to come up with ways to eliminate this edge.The following are some suggestions and ways to eliminate this edge, which forex has over you.
1. USE a dealer which gives you the least spread available in market
2. USE a dealer with no comission
3. Use good exit strategies in winning trades (take profits)
4. Use wider stop trading. This is an important issue. Because according to above, you will tend to end up losing the longer or the more you trade. It is better to trade less and win more. For example, if you acheive your target for this month, you should stop trading until you see the conditions are favorable again. The less you trade the more chance you have to end up in profit.
5. Every pips counts. Try to save pips. See my previous tips on my site
60 enter only low risk to reward ratio trades

Absolute garbage advice from an obviously inexperienced novice! Still trying to get hits on your adsense website huh Yanni? Geez you must be really desperate for a few cents!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

traders have been trying for a long time to beat the forex

The forex market is not an opponent to 'beat'.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

In forex you cannot have a guaranteed 1 pip

Trading is not about 'guarantees', it's about probability.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Take for example the casino. Take the roulette.

Trading and playing roulette in a casino have no similarities.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Do not tell me that forex is not random.

The forex market is not random, it may appear random to you because you have not mastered the skills necessary to read it. It's a bit like a child learning to read, words must look like a jumble of random letters at first until they master the skill of reading.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

how traders act towards news, only God knows.

It may seem like that to you because you haven't developed the skills necessary to understand how the market prepares for, and reacts to, fundamentals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

This is why people say that all systems in longterm LOSE.

I don't know any experienced trader who says that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

USE a dealer which gives you the least spread available in market

Spread should not be your first consideration, fills and slippage are far more important. There's no point in having a 1pip spread if you can't get orders filled, or filled at the price you want. It's a bit like a shop offering a PS3 for $9.99 but they never have any in stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

USE a dealer with no comission

Asking for low/no spread and no commission is asking for trouble. Marketmakers have to make money too, if they're not getting it from spread and/or commission then the chances are they're getting it from you in other ways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Use good exit strategies in winning trades (take profits)

No, really!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Use wider stop trading.

Use stops appropriate to the time frame being traded, market conditions, and your strategy. Wider stops do not fix poor trading decisions. Always use sound money management principles.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

if you acheive your target for this month, you should stop trading until you see the conditions are favorable again.

Don't set yourself daily or monthly targets. If trading opportunities which fit your criteria present themselves then trade them. Just because you have set yourself a target to meet it does not mean the market will oblige, you run the risk of overtrading and straying from your planned strategy just to meet some meaningless target. Targets add unnecessary pressure, you can only have what the market is prepared to offer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Every pips counts. Try to save pips. See my previous tips on my site

If the tips on your site are anything like the rubbish you've posted here then I wouldn't bother!

You've a long way to go before you can call yourself a trader! I thought you would have got the message after being exposed as a serial spammer and ripped a new one over on this forum thread

-

jgerousis · 30-03-2007, 17:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Absolute garbage advice from an obviously inexperienced novice! Still trying to get hits on your adsense website huh Yanni? Geez you must be really desperate for a few cents!-

If you call the above advice as garbage, then congratulations you know NOTHING in forex. I do advise you to re-read my tips, or if you find it difficult because of your ego, there are many informative sites for forex on the internet. Email me, and I will send you some links.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

The forex market is not an opponent to 'beat'.
-

No, you are wrong. It is your opononet. One proof of that is the spread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Trading is not about 'guarantees', it's about probability.

check your friends what do they say at oanda forums. They deny the probability issues. like whipsaw, ssean, machiavel, baze... Always keep your word one. Do not post something on a forum and post the oposite there. And to prove my theory better, read what I wrote about randomness, chaos, and forex (Probability)

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Trading and playing roulette in a casino have no similarities.

The edge is the similarity. You cannot deny that. If you do not know what is the edge, re-read my post above.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

The forex market is not random, it may appear random to you because you have not mastered the skills necessary to read it. It's a bit like a child learning to read, words must look like a jumble of random letters at first until they master the skill of reading.

One friend of yours on oanda, posted a graph of 4 lines. 3 were random generated line, the other one was that for EURO. THREE EXPERIENCED traders from Oanda forum, COULD NOT differentiate the EUR from the other three. Another proof of the randomity of the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

It may seem like that to you because you haven't developed the skills necessary to understand how the market prepares for, and reacts to, fundamentals.

You haven't still developed the skills to know that indeed. My skills are far beyond yours.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

I don't know any experienced trader who says that.

Check oanda forums

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Spread should not be your first consideration, fills and slippage are far more important. There's no point in having a 1pip spread if you can't get orders filled, or filled at the price you want. It's a bit like a shop offering a PS3 for $9.99 but they never have any in stock!

Every pip counts including spreads (first consideration), slippage, fills, rollovers, etc... If you do not know what's rollover, ask, i will explain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Asking for low/no spread and no commission is asking for trouble. Marketmakers have to make money too, if they're not getting it from spread and/or commission then the chances are they're getting it from you in other ways.

All one needs is a non greedy broker that's it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

No, really!

would you bet on that?

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Use stops appropriate to the time frame being traded, market conditions, and your strategy. Wider stops do not fix poor trading decisions. Always use sound money management principles.

You did not understand what I wrote. Re-read. If you still did not, I will explain. Just ask.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Don't set yourself daily or monthly targets. If trading opportunities which fit your criteria present themselves then trade them. Just because you have set yourself a target to meet it does not mean the market will oblige, you run the risk of overtrading and straying from your planned strategy just to meet some meaningless target. Targets add unnecessary pressure, you can only have what the market is prepared to offer.

Use feasible targets.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

If the tips on your site are anything like the rubbish you've posted here then I wouldn't bother!

Most of your previous posts here are rubbish. Excuse me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

You've a long way to go before you can call yourself a trader! I thought you would have got the message after being exposed as a serial spammer and ripped a new one over on this forum thread

If you call the links to forums where I post, and considered an 8+ reputation member, and respected by fellow traders is an exposure, then you make me laugh. Beleive me. I post at ff, fx-tsd, moneytec, strategybuilder, oanda, goldenmoneytree, moneymakeforum, etc...

I am nothing but an ACTIVE TRADER FORUM MEMBER. If you are jealous because I am famous, this is something else.

jgerousis · 30-03-2007, 18:01

double post deleted by me

WhipsawFX · 30-03-2007, 18:21

Just a heads up for readers of this thread and any other of jgerousis, he has been spamming the forum at OANDA for the last few months and has been a right royal pain in the rear. So much so I googled him and found out he has been spamming almost every site he has stumbled on ... ... its beyond a joke :

http://www.hyip.com/profile/posts/5316
http://www.designerstalk.com/forums/...earchid=582581
http://www.goldage.net/forex/19278-m...eport-com.html
http://forum.mabico.com/forum/Investing_C5/Other_Investing_Issues_F39/Almost_zero_risk_forex_strategy._P55442/gforum.cgi?post=55442;search_string=search_string; guest=3231930&t=sear ch_engine#55442
http://www..com/forums/free-forex-tr...ng-living.html
http://www.fxfisherman.com/forums/fo...eur-usd-3.html
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22049
http://www.moneymakergroup.com/index...owtopic=129378
http://www.forexnews.com/fxforum/for...?TID=1534&PN=2
http://www.dreamteammoney.com/lofive...hp/t18154.html
http://www.forexforums.org/showthread.php?p=29704
http://www.forex-tsd.com/general-dis...ex-market.html
http://earn-money-google.com/forums/...sp?TOPIC_ID=36
...
Even spamming indonesian forums where no one speaks english ?!?
http://www.indofx-trader.net/topic457.html
Comment(spam) #16 on adscence revenue ...
http://www.associateprograms.com/art...dSense-revenue
even spamming comments on the end of someone elses word press !!
http://onlinejer.wordpress.com/2007/...-pino-tedesco/
It goes on and on and on for pages.... and pages ...

The moderator at talkgold saw him for the spammer he is and permanently banned him, when he realised he was spamming the same site.

It looks like previously he had flooded them with spam (probably because his posts were moderated) 4 Billion times !! using the nick profitfrog :

note he flooded their forum with a few BILLION posts... Outrageous.
In anycase, I just wanted to let any readers of this thread and others of his, that he is simply a spammer.
Good Luck,
WhipsawFX

static · 30-03-2007, 18:27

Well I think you both have some valid points but isn’t this the third or fourth time this thread has been posted?

Anyway, on the one hand you have JG saying that trading is like roulette, and Mick saying that it is about probabilities but not like gambling. It would seem that since gambling is all about probability that they are one and the same. If the odds were not in favor of the casinos (or brokers in this case) they would not have millions of dollars to build huge resorts in the middle of the desert. In the same vein, you could say that the odds are absolutely in favor of the brokers by means of the spread that we have to pay, assuming that the market is completely random and that there is no way to predict which way price will go.

However -

That is a very big assumption. I think it is hard to dispute that the market has some short term memory and that trends to exist. If you can identify these trends and follow them, and do so on a large enough scale that spread is effectively marginalized (i.e. higher time frames), then you can create a probability of success that is above 49.999% with proper money management and disciplined trading. Even in a completely random market, with correct money management skills you should be able to bring in a positive return.

Or at least that is how I understand the math. So long story short it seems to me like the most important thing is to know the probability of success of any given trade using your given entry and exit rules over the long term, and sticking to it. Some of the other points you make are matters of opinion and there really is no point arguing about them. But just as an aside, isn’t spread a function of your broker and not the market? If it was inherent to the market it should be the same on all brokers right?

static · 30-03-2007, 18:29

You posted while I was typing, good catch though. Four billion posts? Guess you have to do something while staring at charts all day...

MickMason · 30-03-2007, 18:47

lol, it looks like you've been exposed as a no-good spammer here as well! (well done Whipsaw!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

No, you are wrong. It is your opononet. One proof of that is the spread.

What? How does spread (the cost of doing business) make the forex market your opponent? The forex market is an opportunity for us to speculate, it's not your enemy, traders work with the market not against it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

check your friends what do they say at oanda forums. They deny the probability issues. like whipsaw, ssean, machiavel, baze... Always keep your word one. Do not post something on a forum and post the oposite there. And to prove my theory better, read what I wrote about randomness, chaos, and forex (Probability)

What are you talking about? You declared it was not possible to make a guaranteed 1 pip as if it was some big revelation to everyone. My reply was that traders work with probabilities not guarantees.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

The edge is the similarity. You cannot deny that. If you do not know what is the edge, re-read my post above.

What? You're calling spread the broker's edge?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

One friend of yours on oanda, posted a graph of 4 lines. 3 were random generated line, the other one was that for EURO. THREE EXPERIENCED traders from Oanda forum, COULD NOT differentiate the EUR from the other three. Another proof of the randomity of the market.

lol, how does that prove the market is random? Come on, you can't seriously believe this stuff you write can you?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

You haven't still developed the skills to know that indeed. My skills are far beyond yours.

All evidence to the contrary.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

Every pip counts including spreads (first consideration), slippage, fills, rollovers, etc... If you do not know what's rollover, ask, i will explain.

You said find a broker with the least spread. Read my reply, spread is not the first consideration when chosing a broker. And now you're talking about rollover? What the.........

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

All one needs is a non greedy broker that's it.

That's a naiive thing to say and demonstrates your inexperience.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

would you bet on that?

Bet on what? I've told you before I'm not a betting man.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

I am nothing but an ACTIVE TRADER FORUM MEMBER. If you are jealous because I am famous, this is something else.

Ok now you're starting to sound a little hysterical, calm down, way too many smilies.

Jealous of what, the fact that you're labelled a spammer and have been banned from forums and have your threads closed? Something has definitely gone to your head but I don't think it's fame!

jgerousis you're a fool, period.