how to beat the forex market - Page 2

WhipsawFX · 30-03-2007, 19:49

He doesnt care about other traders, he simply wants you to visit his site and give him some adsence. I think he is posting like a wildman at OANDA because he can include his spammed website in his signature, which gets picked up by google - and gets him a high ranking on search results. Its sad, because if the content is any good, he would get the traffic anyway. Infact he has proved his hans123 (actually its a standard EUR & GBP breakout system that has been around forever) is a seriously flawed system to try to trade. Although at one point he was up nearly 800 pips, he has had a drawdown of over 1600 pips.

He was posting everywhere ( that I could see ) that this was the system to trade. I really hope that people didnt get on board and trade it with him with any serious money. I have seen on other forums, everyone who has tried it ends up crashing out with a series draw. It sucks.
Good Luck,
WhipsawFX

MickMason · 30-03-2007, 20:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by static

isn’t this the third or fourth time this thread has been posted?

Yes it is. As jgerousis can't make any money from trading he's trying to make money from his adsense laden website which is why he's spamming all the boards over and over.

He also seems to enjoy trying to lead new traders in the wrong direction, probably something to do with his own losses. The guy really needs taking out back

jgerousis · 31-03-2007, 03:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by static

Four billion posts?

This is a very big damn lie. No one can post 4 billion posts in 4 years. Even a flooder or a robot. This means that there is 34 posts per second. This is UNREALISTIC.

How can you post 34 posts in a second. The server response time is around 3 sec. This means that it is the most you can post is 1 post per 3 seconds, working 24 hours a day for 4 years (relatively impossible) and still you cannot post 4 billion posts.

This is a fabricated conspiracy between PLUGGY, and WHIPSAWFX which I suspect to be the same person

jgerousis · 31-03-2007, 04:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by static

Well I think you both have some valid points but isn’t this the third or fourth time this thread has been posted?

Anyway, on the one hand you have JG saying that trading is like roulette, and Mick saying that it is about probabilities but not like gambling. It would seem that since gambling is all about probability that they are one and the same. If the odds were not in favor of the casinos (or brokers in this case) they would not have millions of dollars to build huge resorts in the middle of the desert. In the same vein, you could say that the odds are absolutely in favor of the brokers by means of the spread that we have to pay, assuming that the market is completely random and that there is no way to predict which way price will go.

However -

That is a very big assumption. I think it is hard to dispute that the market has some short term memory and that trends to exist. If you can identify these trends and follow them, and do so on a large enough scale that spread is effectively marginalized (i.e. higher time frames), then you can create a probability of success that is above 49.999% with proper money management and disciplined trading. Even in a completely random market, with correct money management skills you should be able to bring in a positive return.

Or at least that is how I understand the math. So long story short it seems to me like the most important thing is to know the probability of success of any given trade using your given entry and exit rules over the long term, and sticking to it. Some of the other points you make are matters of opinion and there really is no point arguing about them. But just as an aside, isn’t spread a function of your broker and not the market? If it was inherent to the market it should be the same on all brokers right?

Static, you are right on this. But let me elaborate further:
If markets were not highly uncertain and more like casinos, where randomity plays a big role, then everyone trading forex would have become a millionaire.

The main enemy for any trader in forex is the edge, "The Spread". No one can guess what will be the outcome of any news piece on forex, nor can guess what will happen the very next hour. On a micro level, if you use indicators, and read the price action well, you can have a view of what "was happening" and what may happen, but with some uncertainity.

however, if you look at the macro level no one can know anything. Can anyone tell me what monday, the end of day price for GBP would be? Or more easily, will it be MORE than monday open or LESS than monday open?

This is why markets are random by nature. Entropy, which is a physics theory, can be eaily applied to forex. As we can see, markets, and prices are always tending to go to increased disorder. Past patterns which we used to see, today no longer exist, due to increased disorder. However the action of traders towards news, tend to create new patterns, which will also sooner or later disappear due to 2 things:

1. Randomity
2. Entropy.

---

However, this should not be taken as a statement that NO ONE CAN WIN in forex. No. If, as static said, you have dicipline, strategy, and money management, you could win. The reason behind, that, because using these 3 principles, you can OVERCOME the edge

jgerousis · 31-03-2007, 04:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by MickMason

Yes it is. As jgerousis can't make any money from trading he's trying to make money from his adsense laden website which is why he's spamming all the boards over and over.

He also seems to enjoy trying to lead new traders in the wrong direction, probably something to do with his own losses. The guy really needs taking out back

Adsense is not a crime. Moneytec, were you are posting here today are using adsense. I use adsense to cover the costs of running my website. My website has other people's techniques, not mine, I am testing them and providing a free service to new traders in order to GUIDE them to the right direction, not misleading them.

As you can see, I am fully honest, if anyone visits my site, he will see how I FULLY HONESTLY post the resulst of all system, ALL, verifiable. I post the loss before I post the gain. I do not mislead anyone.

jgerousis · 31-03-2007, 04:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhipsawFX

He doesnt care about other traders, he simply wants you to visit his site and give him some adsence. I think he is posting like a wildman at OANDA because he can include his spammed website in his signature, which gets picked up by google - and gets him a high ranking on search results. Its sad, because if the content is any good, he would get the traffic anyway. Infact he has proved his hans123 (actually its a standard EUR & GBP breakout system that has been around forever) is a seriously flawed system to try to trade. Although at one point he was up nearly 800 pips, he has had a drawdown of over 1600 pips.

He was posting everywhere ( that I could see ) that this was the system to trade. I really hope that people didnt get on board and trade it with him with any serious money. I have seen on other forums, everyone who has tried it ends up crashing out with a series draw. It sucks.
Good Luck,
WhipsawFX

You said it right. The system has a drawdown of 1600 pips until now. And I have shown this on my website!!!!! If I wanted to mislead anyone, I would not have honestly posted all the results, order, etc...

If you see my website, I clearly stated, I AM NOT AFFILIATED with any of the systems tested. I have clearly indicated for every system, to whom this system belongs. All I am doing was a MONITORING SERVICE.

If you know fx street, which I doubt, they have a similar service, where they test forex signals from signal providers. And they post live results.

It is a free service I provide to people, and for strategy owners. I am helping new traders to know which system to choose, to conculde results, and if they want to help make systems better.

Thank you for bringing up this point whipsaw.

jgerousis · 31-03-2007, 04:49

Conculsions:

1. Hans123
This system which is owned by Hans Van Der helm had a draw down of 1600 pipsin 2007. However, it ha lots of potential. If we look at the EURUSD second session (NY session) we can see that it performed of +110 pips per month with very low drawdown.

2. SIBKIS +261 pips starting February 2007. Average 131 pips per month

3. Fozzy. +234 pips starting february 12th 2007
avergae 115 pips per month

I hope to add more system to test to help GUIDE traders better.

Cheers

MickMason · 31-03-2007, 06:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

The main enemy for any trader in forex is the edge, "The Spread".

More nonsense. The spread is simply the cost of doing business, it's one of the ways marketmakers make their money. Trading isn't free, like any business it has overhead, spread is simply an overhead. The main 'enemy' of the trader isn't the market or the spread, it's the trader himself.....oh, and listening to garbage from people like you who claim to trade for a living when it's quite obvious to anyone with any experience you are a total novice with very little common sense let alone any trading smarts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

No one can guess what will be the outcome of any news piece on forex

No-one needs to guess what the outcome will be, fundamental traders analyze data, take a view, and position accordingly, they don't guess. Some data is more obscure than others, some is blatantly obvious, some is priced in, some isn't. You need to you have a general understanding of what players are looking at and their positioning tactics, something you don't have.

Price action is not as random as you believe, all you have to do is open your eyes and look, you will see.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

I use adsense to cover the costs of running my website.

Webiste running costs for a site like yours are neglible, no it appears you're trying to earn a living from adsense by spamming numerous boards with your garbage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgerousis

My website has other people's techniques, not mine, I am testing them and providing a free service to new traders in order to GUIDE them to the right direction, not misleading them

Your testing of other people's trading strategies is incomplete, inaccurate, and therefore inconsequential. Most of the strategies you feature are already being comprehensively monitored elsewhere by capable people, for example the Hans123 strategy has a 952 page thread running over on the StrategyBuilderFX forum with comments from experienced traders as well as the strategy developer himself. Your website is absolutely no help to anyone, it serves no purpose other than to provide you with a meager income. Your 'trading tips' are in the most part nothing more than utter nonsense and can be misleading to the inexperienced novice who might have difficulty recognizing what is good and bad advice.

In short, you're a fool.