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[zenocorp]

hai, im a newbie, i hav problems to know when the news is out..
whare to find them.
i hope someone can help me..

thanks...

[Wallace]

use Search: calendar
here's one thread:

The best caledar for you!

the audio feed from CNBC — fast reporting of US releases:
http://astream.net/live/cnbc/cnbc2.asx

[Atomised]

Or u could try this forexfactory, it gives u readings on how high or low the impact of whatever news is out will have on the market.

[zenocorp]

o..thanks for those info...im realy apreaciate it..
juz hav smting to ask, is the news at forexfactory up to date?

[Atomised]

Originally Posted by zenocorp

o..thanks for those info...im realy apreaciate it..
juz hav smting to ask, is the news at forexfactory up to date?

How do u mean up to date ? It tells u what news is out for today and the following day, think there's a full calender on there somewhere. Usually within a few minutes of the news they have the news up on the site, if your looking for news sooner try Bloomberg radio.

[KPcurrency]

Originally Posted by zenocorp

hai, im a newbie, i hav problems to know when the news is out..
whare to find them.
i hope someone can help me..

thanks...

The truth is you would be better off to ignore the news. Learn to read the chart. The news offers the Smart Money an opportunity to take advantage of the "herd"; the small retail trader. Don't be part of the herd.

Volume Spread Analysis teaches:

There are only two main principles at work in the market, which will cause it to turn. Both of these principles will arrive in varying intensities producing larger or small results:

1. The "herd" will panic after observing substantial falls in the market (usually on bad news) and will usually follow its instinct to sell. As a trader who is aware of crowd psychology, you must ask yourself, " Are the market makers and the Smart Money prepared to absorb the panic selling at these price levels?" If they are, then this is a good sign that indicates MARKET STRENGTH.

2. After substantial rises, the "herd" will become annoyed at missing the up-moves and will rush in to buy, usually on good news. This includes traders who already have long positions, and want more. At this stage, you need to ask yourself, "Is the Professional Money selling into the buying?" If so, then this is a severe sign of MARKET WEAKNESS.

A Smart Money trader isolates himself from the "herd" and becomes a predator rather than a victim. He understands and recognizes the principles that drive the market and refuses to be misled by good or bad news, tips, advice, brokers, or well-meaning friends. When the market is being shaken-out on bad news, he is in there buying. When the "herd" is buying and the news is good, he is looking to sell.

The Smart Money understands how to read the interrelationship between volume and price action. They understand human psychology. They know most traders are controlled in varying degrees by the TWO FEARS: the fear of missing out and the fear of losses.

[MickMason]

This article contradicts your philosophy KPcurrency, personally I think you're missing a big step...

Trading Technicals & Fundamentals

[KPcurrency]

Nice to see ya back Mick (I know I said it before). I had already taken a look at that article.

It is certainly true that a very "fast" and disciplined trader can make some money by going short on bad news as the "herd" rushes in to short the market. But take a look at it from this point of view:

1. If the news is bad and the "herd" rush in, who is on the other side of the trade? Who is letting the "herd" in? If you sell, there is a trader on the otherside of the trade. What does he know that you do not?

2. Smart Money is called such becuase they tend to be right more often than not. Unlike the typical retail trader, they tend to be buying at bottoms and selling at tops.

3. Prior to news events, Professional Money positions itself to take advantage of the "herd". The do know the news before the rest of us and are usually selling ahead of it. To stay in business, a professional must sell at high prices (retail) and buy back at lower price(wholesell).

"Every market moves on supply and demand: Supply from professional operators and demand from professional operators. If there is more buying than selling then the market will move up. If there is more selling than buying, the market will move down. Before anyone gets the impression that the markets are this easy to read, however, there is much more going on in the background than this simple logic. This is the important part of which most non-professional traders are unaware! The underlying principle stated above is correct; however, supply and demand actually work in the markets quite differently. For a market to trend up, there must be more buying than selling, but the buying is not the most important part of the equation as the price rises. For a true uptrend to take place, there has to be an absence of major selling (supply) hitting the market. Since there is no substantial selling to stop the up move, the market can continue up.

What most traders are completely unaware of is that the substantial buying has already taken place at lower levels as part of the accumulation phase. And the substantial buying from the professional operators actually appears on the chart as a down bars with a volume spike. VSA teaches that strength in a market is shown on down bars and weakness is shown on up bars. This is the opposite of what most traders think they know as the truth of the market. For a true downtrend to occur, there must be a lack of substantial buying (demand) to support the price. The only traders that can provide this level of buying are the professional operators, but they have sold at higher price levels earlier on the chart during the distribution phase of the market. The professional selling is shown on the price chart during an up bar/s with a volume spike, weakness appears on up bars. Since there is now very little buying occurring, the market continues to fall until the mark down phase is over. The professional operator buys into the selling that is almost always created by the release of bad news; this bad news will encourage the mass public (herd) to sell (almost always for a loss). This professional buying happens on down bars. This activity has been going on for well over 100 years, yet most retail traders have remained uninformed about it—until now." --Todd Krueger SFO June, 2006.

Successful trading is about finding an edge. Positioning oneself on the side of the dominate order flow (the side of the winners-the side the Smart Money tends to be on) gives a trade such an edge. Making emotional trades based on news-driven events does not.

You can find the entire article here: http://www.tradeguider.com/sfo/article.htm

[MickMason]

Hi KP

Basically I think we agree, fundamentals are very much priced in before release so any self-respecting trader will already be positioned days or sometimes weeks before a series of data.

But with something like say the unpredictable NFP or even Trichet tomorrow if he suggests no hike in Feb, it's the unexpected that moves the market violently. So tomorrow for example if Trichet omits the infamous 'vigilant' word or emphasizes 'strong vigilance' what will happen, traders will scramble to get in the market and that is when bucket shop brokers come in handy, they take everything! Oanda (who I wouldn't really call a bucket shop) like many others have a fill and hedge policy which means while all those ecn-style traders can't get a fill for the very reasons you mentioned, we're already in and riding the first reaction. But it's also like Boris said, it can take hours for price to truly reflect market reaction to important data after the initial wave of scalpers have finished. Emotional trades? No, I don't think so, it's more a case of a quick opportunist buck. Smart money? It would have to be psychic money to predict some of the surprises we get, and it's those surprises which cause the herd to stampede so I don't think it's so much a case of 'let us in' it's more a case of 'we're coming in and will probably beat you to it'!

The article you posted that link to is interesting though but I'm not sure it will change my view on trading very much, old dog new tricks



 

[zenocorp]

Originally Posted by Atomised

How do u mean up to date ? It tells u what news is out for today and the following day, think there's a full calender on there somewhere. Usually within a few minutes of the news they have the news up on the site, if your looking for news sooner try Bloomberg radio.

erm what im trying to say, is the news release in forex factory is reliable, mean, can we trade acroding to the news that had been released and get almost 100% correct trade?

[Atomised]

Originally Posted by zenocorp

erm what im trying to say, is the news release in forex factory is reliable, mean, can we trade acroding to the news that had been released and get almost 100% correct trade?

Personally i never trade according to the news unless it something amazing like a rate hike or something. Trading according to the news is risky business and one my dairy of past news trades tells me to keep out of !

[Wallace]

Zenocorp, various calendars provide a public Consensus amount that is a range of estimates of what the Actual amount will be, obtained from various 'professional analysts'. Who those 'analysts' may be I've no idea, however Consensus Economics tells us and, how they obtain their number:
http://www.consensuseconomics.com/wh..._forecasts.htm

Some sites provide a rating of the importance of the release, some sites also provide a ‘price reaction’ rating — whether or not a particular pair will price spike and percent of time such spikes occur, you’ll need to use Search for that unless another member posts links.

Saddam Hussein for instance was captured on a Saturday and when the markets opened on Sunday the eurusd gap-opened down 100+ pips and then recovered. 9/11 for instance had little effect on prices. Here's an example via CNBC regarding the release of one US Non Farm Payroll:
Quick up and down
The Nov 06 Payroll Actual was below the Consensus suggesting an eurusd rally but the eurusd dumped because:
“ The headline payroll number was moderately positive with a 92,000 increase, compared to the Consensus expectation for a 130,000 gain. However, gains were revised up for the prior two months to increases of 148,000 for September and 230,000 for August. The net revision for the two months is up 139,000. September and August had been previously reported with gains of 51,000 and 188,008. Payroll employment is up 1.5 percent on a year-on-year basis for October, compared to 1.4 percent for September.” ~ Econoday. which most people believe was a pre Congressional election ploy by the Administration to have people ‘Vote for Republicans’ — it failed, tho the point is if ‘revisions’ are part of the release then there’s no ‘real’ dependable statistic being released.

Calendars then usually only provide ‘Consensus’ figures, and while some sites provide questionable secondary ‘ratings’ — questionable since while Price may react to Actual amounts there is no guarantee that the Price will react ‘this’ time.

My opinion remains that ‘releases’ are betting opportunities rather than trading opportunities and so far as your question’s concerned, there isn’t a source that provides “100% correct trade”.

There are individuals who do trade releases / news and you should Search MoneyTec and google ‘news trading’ to learn more if you want to trade the news / releases.

[KPcurrency]

THE SELLING CLIMAX

(WITH RESPECT)

* An imbalance of supply and demand causing a bear market to transform into a bull market.

* The volume is extremely high on the down-moves, accompanied by narrow spreads, with price entering fresh low ground. The only difference (from a buying climax) is that on the lows, just before the market begins to turn, the price will be seen to close in the middle or low of the bar.

* The actually selling climax bar is indicated by a wide-spread down bar on ultra high volume, usuallly closing near the high of the day (add more bullishness if the news is bad).

* This is also known as stopping volume.

To create this phenomenon requires a huge amount of selling, such as that witnessed following the tragic events of the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 20001.

This is what the Professional money does: Buy when the news is bleak and the herd is rushing to sell. A Bull Market occurs when there has been a substantial transfer of ownership from Weak Holders to Strong Holders, genenerally, at a loss to the Weak Holders. While not every news event is as tragic to be sure, the principle the Smart Money uses is the same; they tend to position themselves PRIOR to the news in such a way as to take advantage of the retail traders as they rush into the market on the news and usually on the wrong side.

Ignore the news. Track the Smart Money.

[zenocorp]

thanks to all of you, for those long and useful information..
i guess i hav a pretty gud view regarding the news, thanks again for the support.